Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

States

Kentucky

All races decided, 1 changed party. The state's House vote has moved D +21.5 since 2024. D +21.3 since 2022.

How the count runs here

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 18 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

Stats

Counties vs. 2024Counties vs. 2022The spreadContests vs. 2024Contests vs. 2022

Kentucky counties vs. 2024

How far has each county moved since the 2024 president?

R +80 R +60 R +40 R +20 Even D +20 D +40 D +60 D +80 R +80 R +60 R +40 R +20 Even D +20 D +40 D +60 D +80 House margin this year 2024 president margin R for president, D here: 4 D for both: 2 R for both: 112 D for president, R here: 0

Democrat aheadRepublican aheadNo changeThe pattern

Blue squares are good for Democrats and red for Republicans. The darker squares are counties voting differently for House than for president. Above the black line, a county moved toward Democrats.

118 moved toward Democrats, 0 toward Republicans. The middle shift is D +14.8.

Kentucky counties vs. 2022

How far has each county moved since the 2022 House vote?

R +80 R +60 R +40 R +20 Even D +20 D +40 D +60 D +80 R +80 R +60 R +40 R +20 Even D +20 D +40 D +60 D +80 House margin this year 2022 House vote margin Nicholas Bourbon Fayette Scott Jessamine Was R, now D: 5 D both times: 1 R both times: 112 Was D, now R: 0

Democrat aheadRepublican aheadNo changeThe patternFar from the pattern

Blue squares are good for Democrats and red for Republicans. The darker squares are counties that changed sides. Above the black line, a county moved toward Democrats.

118 moved toward Democrats, 0 toward Republicans. The middle shift is D +14.2.

12 far from the pattern
  • Nicholas: 25 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 100% counted
  • Bourbon: 24 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 100% counted
  • Fayette: 22 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 100% counted
  • Scott: 21 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 100% counted
  • Jessamine: 21 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 100% counted
  • Woodford: 21 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 100% counted
  • Floyd: 20 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 100% counted
  • Mercer: 20 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 100% counted

Being far from the pattern is a reason to look, not a finding. Usual causes are a popular or weak candidate, an unopposed race last time, or a batch of ballots still to come.

How Kentucky's counties moved

Did the state move together, or are some counties far from the rest?

R +50 R +30 R +10 D +10 D +30 D +50 Change in margin Since 2024: 118 counties, middle D +14.8 Since 2022: 118 counties, middle D +14.2 Toward Republicans Toward Democrats

Toward DemocratsToward RepublicansMiddle

Right of Even, in blue, moved toward Democrats, which is good for them. Left of it, in red, moved toward Republicans. Bars far from the main hump stand apart from the rest.

9 far from the pattern
  • Fayette: D +43.5 since 2022, 29 points from the middle
  • Bourbon: D +39.6 since 2022, 25 points from the middle
  • Nicholas: D +38.8 since 2022, 25 points from the middle
  • Woodford: D +38.2 since 2022, 24 points from the middle
  • Scott: D +38.0 since 2022, 24 points from the middle
  • Jessamine: D +35.9 since 2022, 22 points from the middle
  • Madison: D +35.3 since 2022, 21 points from the middle
  • Floyd: D +34.3 since 2022, 20 points from the middle

Being far from the pattern is a reason to look, not a finding. Usual causes are a popular or weak candidate, an unopposed race last time, or a batch of ballots still to come.

Every Kentucky contest vs. 2024

How far has each race on the ballot moved since 2024?

R +50 R +40 R +30 R +20 R +10 Even D +10 D +20 D +30 D +40 D +50 R +50 R +40 R +30 R +20 R +10 Even D +10 D +20 D +30 D +40 D +50 Margin this year Margin in 2024 Congress 06 Flipped to Democrats: 1 Stayed Democratic: 1 Stayed Republican: 3 Flipped to Republicans: 0

Democrat aheadRepublican aheadNo changeThe patternFar from the pattern

Blue squares are good for Democrats and red squares for Republicans; the darker squares changed sides. Above the black line a race moved toward Democrats, even if it's still in a red square. Below it, toward Republicans.

5 moved toward Democrats, 0 toward Republicans. The middle shift is D +17.9.

1 far from the pattern
  • Congress 06: 18 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 99% counted

Being far from the pattern is a reason to look, not a finding. Usual causes are a popular or weak candidate, an unopposed race last time, or a batch of ballots still to come.

Every Kentucky contest vs. 2022

How far has each race on the ballot moved since 2022?

R +60 R +40 R +20 Even D +20 D +40 D +60 R +60 R +40 R +20 Even D +20 D +40 D +60 Margin this year Margin in 2022 Congress 06 Flipped to Democrats: 1 Stayed Democratic: 1 Stayed Republican: 5 Flipped to Republicans: 0

Democrat aheadRepublican aheadNo changeThe patternFar from the pattern

Blue squares are good for Democrats and red squares for Republicans; the darker squares changed sides. Above the black line a race moved toward Democrats, even if it's still in a red square. Below it, toward Republicans.

7 moved toward Democrats, 0 toward Republicans. The middle shift is D +16.7.

1 far from the pattern
  • Congress 06: 24 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 99% counted

Being far from the pattern is a reason to look, not a finding. Usual causes are a popular or weak candidate, an unopposed race last time, or a batch of ballots still to come.

Each race against past elections

RaceSince 2024Since 2022
U.S. SenateD +18.7D +11.3
District 1D +14.3D +14.7
District 2D +17.9D +15.4
District 3D +16.8D +16.7
District 4—D +21.3
District 5—D +17.2
District 6D +35.9D +40.0

Statewide

U.S. Senate

Andy Barr won
55.0%784,181
Charles Booker
42.9%612,397
Christopher Campbell
2.1%29,957
99% counted

Congress

District 1

James Comer won
67.6%153,992
John Williams
32.4%73,910
99% counted

District 2

S. Brett Guthrie won
62.8%145,139
Megan Wingfield
35.1%81,111
Thomas Loecken
2.1%4,807
99% counted

District 3

Morgan McGarvey won
70.3%174,775
Maria Rodriguez
29.7%73,717
99% counted

District 4

Ed Gallrein won
54.2%137,623
Melissa Strange
40.9%103,713
Jeremy Todd
4.9%12,484
99% counted

District 5

Hal Rogers won
71.0%139,709
Ned Pillersdorf
25.5%50,240
Mikel Wein
2.1%4,144
99% counted

District 6

Zach Dembo won
52.7%138,778
Ralph Alvarado
43.3%114,030
Jay Bowman
2.5%6,710
99% counted

Counties

CountyVotesCountedSince 2024Since 2022
Jefferson264,844100%D +20.7D +16.7
Fayette113,084100%D +20.5D +43.5
Kenton55,038100%D +25.5D +22.6
Boone44,090100%D +21.8D +23.9
Warren37,779100%D +14.6D +21.1
Campbell34,796100%D +23.8D +23.0
Hardin33,104100%D +11.7D +15.9
Daviess31,521100%D +15.8D +18.8
Madison31,294100%D +27.3D +35.3
Oldham27,628100%D +14.8D +18.3
Bullitt26,588100%D +15.3D +12.7
McCracken21,437100%D +10.8D +16.9
Scott21,005100%D +27.7D +38.0
Franklin19,824100%D +14.4D +16.7
Pulaski19,508100%D +7.3D +11.3
Jessamine18,915100%D +22.9D +35.9
Shelby17,932100%D +17.1D +18.5
Nelson16,048100%D +15.4D +12.9
Laurel15,716100%D +12.8D +12.8
Pike14,411100%D +25.7D +24.9
Christian13,507100%D +16.0D +20.8
Henderson13,470100%D +11.4D +14.9
Hopkins13,404100%D +15.8D +14.1
Clark12,847100%D +22.2D +32.1
Boyd12,391100%D +18.9D +17.7
Calloway11,757100%D +12.1D +14.3
Barren11,948100%D +11.9D +16.7
Marshall11,677100%D +13.2D +14.1
Woodford12,157100%D +19.8D +38.2
Floyd11,168100%D +37.6D +34.3
Graves10,417100%D +13.0D +15.6
Boyle10,194100%D +14.6D +17.3
Greenup10,344100%D +21.2D +18.9
Anderson9,274100%D +22.2D +27.7
Meade8,969100%D +14.8D +12.5
Muhlenberg8,853100%D +16.7D +5.6
Logan8,498100%D +12.1D +10.7
Montgomery8,614100%D +25.0D +32.6
Taylor8,183100%D +7.4D +10.0
Whitley8,186100%D +9.5D +12.7
Mercer8,321100%D +28.2D +34.0
Perry7,334100%D +24.9D +25.7
Spencer7,300100%D +15.6D +14.9
Grayson6,981100%D +11.3D +13.3
Carter7,089100%D +17.1D +14.3
Knox6,908100%D +11.6D +12.6
Bourbon6,855100%D +25.3D +39.6
Lincoln6,706100%D +9.2D +14.2
Ohio6,545100%D +11.7D +10.5
Breckinridge6,509100%D +9.7D +7.5
Marion6,330100%D +18.2D +13.4
Rowan6,548100%D +16.9D +21.7
Grant6,525100%D +19.9D +17.1
Harrison6,229100%D +22.0D +17.3
Adair5,910100%D +7.0D +8.1
Russell5,827100%D +6.0D +11.0
Johnson5,675100%D +23.2D +25.4
Harlan5,751100%D +14.4D +14.1
Bell5,670100%D +10.1D +11.9
Garrard5,636100%D +22.3D +26.0
Letcher5,614100%D +29.9D +23.6
Allen5,319100%D +11.5D +12.7
Mason5,598100%D +22.8D +22.7
Simpson5,278100%D +14.7D +17.3
Wayne5,382100%D +6.2D +10.3
Hart5,145100%D +15.1D +8.8
Henry5,162100%D +17.9D +11.5
Trigg4,771100%D +10.6D +11.7
Larue4,840100%D +8.1D +9.1
Washington4,721100%D +14.2D +14.8
Fleming4,666100%D +25.2D +27.4
Knott4,542100%D +29.1D +25.2
Casey4,301100%D +7.9D +9.3
Clay4,447100%D +9.6D +6.9
Estill4,458100%D +25.1D +31.0
Magoffin4,271100%D +28.7D +24.2
Rockcastle4,256100%D +6.6D +9.1
Pendleton4,310100%D +20.7D +18.8
Butler4,030100%D +6.0D +9.7
Union3,905100%D +14.9D +12.4
Powell4,142100%D +25.8D +25.9
Morgan3,909100%D +14.7D +10.3
Metcalfe3,765100%D +7.4D +8.0
McCreary3,896100%D +1.6D +1.1
Green3,760100%D +5.8D +8.5
Bath3,835100%D +14.3D +12.4
Edmonson3,596100%D +11.8D +11.8
Lawrence3,614100%D +18.2D +15.9
Owen3,656100%D +19.1D +13.1
Webster3,478100%D +13.2D +10.1
Breathitt3,538100%D +30.5D +26.1
Livingston3,450100%D +7.1D +9.4
Hancock3,487100%D +9.4D +4.1
Jackson3,633100%D +7.9D +8.5
Monroe3,267100%D +3.7D +10.9
Todd3,200100%D +15.2D +14.1
McLean3,253100%D +6.3D +5.7
Clinton3,081100%D +5.8D +10.2
Lyon2,900100%D +10.6D +11.6
Caldwell2,882100%D +7.6D +8.6
Crittenden2,855100%D +4.0D +4.7
Trimble2,950100%D +19.5D +16.5
Carroll2,951100%D +22.5D +13.7
Bracken2,848100%D +25.5D +20.2
Lewis3,068100%D +20.8D +20.5
Ballard2,684100%D +7.8D +6.8
Gallatin2,658100%D +21.4D +15.0
Nicholas2,662100%D +32.9D +38.8
Martin2,434100%D +17.2D +18.0
Menifee2,458100%D +11.3D +7.8
Leslie2,198100%D +13.9D +13.8
Wolfe2,207100%——
Lee2,207100%——
Cumberland1,991100%D +9.6D +16.4
Elliott1,776100%D +21.9D +4.1
Carlisle1,704100%D +8.2D +9.0
Fulton1,640100%D +6.4D +11.6
Owsley1,512100%D +3.4D +4.4
Hickman1,350100%D +4.7D +10.7
Robertson880100%D +28.2D +16.0