Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

California · U.S. House

California 24th District

Salud Carbajal wins. Called.

58% counted
CandidateVotesShare
Salud Carbajal D won 117,780 66.1%
Bob Smith R 60,469 33.9%
Total178,249

627 of 627 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 4:13 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 9:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Santa Barbara 98,685 D +33.8 D +27.5 D +6.2 62%
San Luis Obispo 43,383 D +27.0 D +21.6 D +5.4 49%
Ventura 36,181 D +33.9 D +26.8 D +7.1 64%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+1,746 votes178,249D +32.2
+10,836 votes176,503D +32.1
+1,392 votes165,667D +31.7
+4,184 votes164,275D +31.8
+2,231 votes160,091D +32.0
+2,196 votes157,860D +32.4
+1,864 votes155,664D +32.5
+2,964 votes153,800D +32.7
+1,959 votes150,836D +33.0
+2,268 votes148,877D +33.3
+310 votes146,609D +33.2
+1,822 votes146,299D +33.4