Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Florida · U.S. House

Florida 27th District

Salazar leads by 1,116 votes. Not called.

99% counted

Our forecast: Maria Salazar, 94% chance of winning. Projected finish Salazar +0.5. This isn't a race call.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 13 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

CandidateVotesShare
Maria Salazar R 124,474 50.2%
Eliott Rodriguez D 123,358 49.8%
Total247,832

230 of 230 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 5:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Miami-Dade 247,832 R +0.5 R +14.9 D +14.4 100%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+1,481 votes247,832R +0.5
+1,372 votes246,351R +0.5
+2,245 votes244,979R +0.4
+2,373 votes242,734R +0.3
+2,283 votes240,361R +0.1
+5,085 votes238,078R +0.1
+24,472 votes232,993Even