Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Kansas · U.S. House

Kansas 4th District

Ron Estes wins. Called.

99% counted
CandidateVotesShare
Ron Estes R won 138,994 53.6%
Katy Tyndell D 114,306 44.1%
Drew Cranmer L 6,175 2.4%
Total259,475

944 of 944 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 6:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Sedgwick 181,750 D +1.1 R +14.1 D +15.2 100%
Butler 26,055 R +31.8 R +42.0 D +10.3 100%
Harvey 13,690 R +14.0 R +21.5 D +7.4 100%
Cowley 10,478 R +28.5 R +41.0 D +12.5 100%
Sumner 8,135 R +39.0 R +51.1 D +12.1 99%
Pratt 3,294 R +43.5 R +52.4 D +8.9 100%
Kingman 3,121 R +53.1 R +61.1 D +8.1 99%
Greenwood 2,213 R +56.5 R +61.9 D +5.4 100%
Harper 1,865 R +59.5 R +65.2 D +5.6 100%
Barber 1,668 R +69.3 R +73.1 D +3.8 100%
Stafford 1,498 R +58.7 R +65.2 D +6.5 100%
Chautauqua 1,110 R +66.9 R +72.1 D +5.1 99%
Pawnee 1,043 R +47.9 R +51.7 D +3.8 100%
Edwards 1,022 R +61.2 R +66.1 D +4.9 100%
Elk 1,022 R +66.0 R +70.9 D +4.9 100%
Kiowa 880 R +69.4 R +72.3 D +3.0 100%
Comanche 631 R +65.4 R +69.7 D +4.2 100%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+4 votes259,475R +9.7
+15 votes259,471R +9.7
+15 votes259,456R +9.7
+1 votes259,441R +9.7
+31 votes259,440R +9.7
+1 votes259,409R +9.7
+1,144 votes259,408R +9.7
+39 votes258,264R +9.9
+50 votes258,225R +9.9
+47 votes258,175R +9.9
+2 votes258,128R +9.9
Count revised by -39 votes258,126R +9.9