Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Texas · U.S. House

Texas 4th District

Pat Fallon wins. Called.

99% counted
CandidateVotesShare
Pat Fallon R won 171,652 56.1%
Jason Pearce D 134,563 43.9%
Total306,215

253 of 253 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 3:43 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 6:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Collin 172,789 D +5.7 R +6.7 D +12.4 100%
Grayson 53,384 R +44.7 R +54.7 D +10.0 100%
Denton 39,846 R +2.6 R +14.3 D +11.7 100%
Lamar 16,281 R +51.5 R +61.4 D +9.9 100%
Fannin 12,956 R +58.0 R +67.9 D +9.9 92%
Bowie 6,739 R +58.6 R +69.0 D +10.4 88%
Red River 4,220 R +52.1 R +61.9 D +9.7 100%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+12,956 votes306,215R +12.1
+500 votes293,259R +10.1
+353 votes292,759R +10.1
+1,936 votes292,406R +10.1
+2,674 votes290,470R +10.1
+5,795 votes287,796R +10.2
+2,153 votes282,001R +10.3
+5,184 votes279,848R +10.3
+1,529 votes274,664R +10.4
+1,865 votes273,135R +10.0
+5,948 votes271,270R +9.9
+1,117 votes265,322R +10.0