Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Virginia ยท U.S. Senate

Virginia Senate

Mark Warner wins. Called.

97% counted
CandidateVotesShare
Mark Warner D won 2,190,390 61.2%
Bert Mizusawa R 1,388,696 38.8%
Total3,579,086

2,529 of 2,529 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 5:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Fairfax 468,333 D +52.3 D +36.0 D +16.3 97%
Virginia Beach City 184,092 D +17.7 D +2.7 D +15.0 97%
Prince William 181,003 D +42.8 D +18.5 D +24.3 97%
Loudoun 180,532 D +37.9 D +16.8 D +21.1 97%
Chesterfield 174,140 D +24.9 D +9.1 D +15.8 97%
Henrico 152,730 D +44.4 D +29.3 D +15.1 97%
Arlington 101,538 D +69.9 D +59.9 D +10.1 97%
Chesapeake City 100,401 D +18.9 D +3.8 D +15.1 97%
Richmond City 91,153 D +77.4 D +67.8 D +9.6 97%
Hanover 79,013 R +15.4 R +26.1 D +10.6 97%
Stafford 66,389 D +20.4 D +0.8 D +19.6 97%
Alexandria City 66,373 D +70.3 D +58.9 D +11.4 97%
Norfolk City 66,150 D +57.0 D +42.2 D +14.8 97%
Spotsylvania 61,984 D +11.4 R +8.7 D +20.0 97%
Newport News City 58,379 D +45.2 D +29.2 D +16.0 97%
Albemarle 58,127 D +45.6 D +34.6 D +10.9 97%
Hampton City 48,642 D +54.8 D +40.5 D +14.3 97%
Suffolk City 45,343 D +31.1 D +16.1 D +15.0 97%
Roanoke 43,836 R +5.8 R +22.7 D +16.9 97%
James City 43,522 D +17.5 D +6.3 D +11.2 97%
Frederick 40,189 R +9.4 R +28.7 D +19.3 97%
Bedford 40,086 R +41.4 R +50.8 D +9.3 97%
Rockingham 37,169 R +27.1 R +37.4 D +10.3 97%
Montgomery 35,718 D +21.8 D +3.5 D +18.2 97%
Fauquier 34,802 R +8.7 R +21.9 D +13.2 97%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+5 votes3,579,086D +22.4
+192 votes3,579,081D +22.4
+133 votes3,578,889D +22.4
+16,943 votes3,578,756D +22.4
+18,563 votes3,561,813D +22.2
+21,109 votes3,543,250D +22.3
+27,290 votes3,522,141D +22.1
+4,169 votes3,494,851D +21.6
+15,450 votes3,490,682D +21.6
+93,993 votes3,475,232D +21.5
+962 votes3,381,239D +20.6
+1,259 votes3,380,277D +20.5