Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Arizona · U.S. House

Arizona 8th District

Hamadeh leads by 7,796 votes. Not called.

89% counted

Our forecast: Abraham Hamadeh, 98% chance of winning. Projected finish Hamadeh +3.8. This isn't a race call.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 21 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

CandidateVotesShare
Abraham Hamadeh R 136,501 51.5%
Bernadette Greene-Placentia D 128,705 48.5%
Total265,206

185 of 186 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 7:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Maricopa 265,206 R +2.9 R +16.5 D +13.5 89%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+7,246 votes265,206R +2.9
+9,397 votes257,960R +2.8
+29,847 votes248,563R +2.2
+13,749 votes218,716R +0.5
+8,298 votes204,967D +2.0
+196,669 votes196,669D +2.1