Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

States

Illinois

All races decided. The state's House vote has moved D +13.6 since 2024. D +12.8 since 2022.

Stats

Each race against past elections

RaceSince 2024Since 2022
U.S. SenateD +12.5D +8.1
GovernorD +12.2D +10.5
District 1D +8.9D +6.6
District 2D +9.1D +10.0
District 3D +16.8—
District 4D +20.1D +20.7
District 5D +13.1D +9.7
District 6D +16.6D +16.3
District 7D +11.4—
District 8D +13.5D +13.9
District 9D +14.9D +8.3
District 10D +19.7D +13.6
District 11D +17.2D +15.5
District 12D +10.4D +12.0
District 13D +7.4D +10.4
District 14D +17.4D +19.3
District 15—D +10.2
District 16—D +14.5
District 17D +8.5D +13.4

Statewide

U.S. Senate

Juliana Stratton won
60.9%2,408,498
Don Tracy
37.6%1,486,461
Whitfield Harrington
1.6%62,439
92% counted

Governor

JB Pritzker won
59.6%2,355,910
Darren Bailey
37.0%1,463,600
Collin Corbett
3.4%132,867
89% counted

Congress

District 1

Jonathan Jackson won
70.3%153,401
Christian Maxwell
29.7%64,739
89% counted

District 2

Donna Miller won
72.1%151,462
Michael Noack
27.9%58,542
90% counted

District 3

Delia Ramirez won
75.7%135,696
Angel Oakley
24.3%43,537
87% counted

District 4

Patty Garcia won
70.8%106,642
Lupe Castillo
16.3%24,620
Chris Getty
9.3%14,076
89% counted

District 5

Mike Quigley won
75.5%182,732
Tommy Hanson
24.5%59,165
98% counted

District 6

Sean Casten won
62.5%158,104
Niki Conforti
37.5%94,845
96% counted

District 7

La Shawn Ford won
89.0%161,811
Chad Koppie
11.0%19,971
80% counted

District 8

Melissa Bean won
63.8%133,950
Jennifer Davis
36.2%75,928
93% counted

District 9

Daniel Biss won
75.8%184,028
John Elleson
24.2%58,630
98% counted

District 10

Brad Schneider won
69.8%160,858
Carl Lambrecht
30.2%69,583
97% counted

District 11

Bill Foster won
64.2%170,325
Jeff Walter
35.8%94,926
95% counted

District 12

Mike Bost won
69.0%175,923
Julie Fortier
31.0%78,982
92% counted

District 13

Nikki Budzinski won
61.8%142,376
Jeff Wilson
38.2%87,924
89% counted

District 14

Lauren Underwood won
63.8%141,447
James Marter
36.2%80,185
87% counted

District 15

Mary Miller won
66.1%170,607
Jennifer Todd
33.9%87,681
89% counted

District 16

Darin LaHood won
59.1%165,613
Paul Nolley
40.9%114,680
95% counted

District 17

Eric Sorensen won
58.7%118,281
Dillan Vancil
41.3%83,257
78% counted

Counties

CountyVotesCountedSince 2024Since 2022
Cook1,368,88891%D +17.9D +7.5
DuPage331,07892%D +15.3D +10.1
Will228,57797%D +18.2D +17.7
Lake219,13997%D +16.9D +14.4
Kane168,73397%D +18.3D +16.9
McHenry114,25197%D +17.2D +15.7
Madison98,29897%D +15.8D +13.7
St. Clair89,10896%D +10.8D +13.8
Sangamon78,41993%D +11.5D +13.2
McLean66,51697%D +9.1D +20.8
Peoria59,55397%D +9.7D +10.4
Winnebago50,87554%R +5.5R +1.4
Tazewell50,71297%D +6.1D +16.2
Kendall48,82297%D +20.1D +20.0
Rock Island47,70297%D +19.5D +18.6
Champaign46,77065%D +8.9D +14.8
DeKalb36,17697%D +15.5D +13.7
Kankakee34,11397%D +12.4D +12.8
Macon33,41697%D +9.7D +12.7
Adams24,33397%D +4.2D +11.5
Williamson23,90797%D +8.5D +13.7
Ogle19,49294%D +5.4D +8.7
Whiteside19,28897%D +14.2D +9.2
Grundy18,32297%D +11.2R +4.0
Jackson17,88197%D +10.3D +17.2
Boone17,63694%D +10.2D +17.9
Macoupin17,34897%D +14.3D +0.8
Knox16,74891%D +12.8D +10.0
Coles16,72294%D +7.0D +7.4
Woodford16,10697%D +1.0D +11.2
Stephenson15,77497%D +8.0D +7.9
Monroe15,43397%D +7.4D +13.8
Effingham15,36297%D +1.0D +2.4
Henry15,33674%D +5.1D +8.5
Clinton14,26897%D +2.0D +6.4
Vermilion12,87964%——
Marion12,52291%D +0.8D +2.3
Jefferson12,44897%D +3.2D +8.8
Livingston12,29997%D +2.0D +7.5
Lee12,09097%D +4.7D +7.5
Iroquois12,07097%R +3.8D +0.8
Bureau12,03397%D +4.1D +7.0
Fulton11,93486%D +9.3D +5.0
Christian11,51987%D +8.8D +4.4
Morgan10,97797%D +6.3D +13.3
Jo Daviess10,16697%D +3.1D +5.2
Montgomery10,06197%D +8.8D +9.2
Logan9,42097%D +3.3D +10.1
McDonough9,25597%D +5.0D +12.6
Shelby9,07688%D +3.5D +0.6
Jersey8,63197%D +8.4D +10.0
Saline7,72289%D +3.4D +9.9
LaSalle7,62818%D +7.8D +1.1
Franklin7,19150%D +12.8D +14.6
Perry7,09386%D +4.5D +4.9
Crawford6,59297%D +4.0D +3.5
Wayne6,45997%D +2.8D +1.7
Douglas6,30497%D +7.8D +9.9
Mercer6,26197%D +11.6D +10.3
Bond6,16097%D +8.3D +7.9
Carroll6,12897%D +11.3D +6.5
Washington5,79990%D +2.8D +9.4
Warren5,78997%D +7.3D +9.9
Edgar5,75797%D +7.5D +7.6
Richland5,70097%D +6.1R +7.9
Clay5,43597%D +0.3R +3.9
Hancock5,27497%R +4.9R +0.9
Moultrie5,00897%D +3.6D +3.5
Mason4,81397%D +8.8D +7.5
Ford4,78597%D +3.5D +10.0
Cumberland4,72597%D +1.2R +14.4
Marshall4,70997%D +3.1D +10.2
Johnson4,68892%D +2.5D +2.1
Massac4,61697%D +6.2R +2.1
Jasper4,44890%D +1.6R +14.3
Lawrence4,34580%D +8.1D +3.4
Pike4,30297%D +11.2D +11.1
Cass4,05397%D +13.2D +11.0
Randolph3,87397%D +21.4D +18.4
Wabash3,86897%D +5.6D +7.0
White3,83663%R +3.8R +15.8
Menard3,55064%R +9.8R +9.2
Hamilton3,25297%D +4.6D +1.2
Schuyler2,98288%D +1.4R +1.1
Henderson2,65097%D +9.4D +6.7
Edwards2,58087%D +3.5D +0.8
Putnam2,42597%D +13.7D +10.5
Pulaski2,12397%R +5.1D +1.1
Scott2,12197%D +5.3D +8.1
Stark2,04097%R +0.1D +9.3
Calhoun2,01579%D +13.1D +5.0
Gallatin1,97097%D +13.5D +0.6
Brown1,89796%D +2.5D +6.2
Pope1,62097%D +4.1D +6.9
Alexander1,60197%D +3.4D +7.2
Clark1,11197%D +5.6D +6.7