Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

California · U.S. House

California 4th District

Seat stays Democrat; winner not called. Every candidate is from the same party.

41% counted
CandidateVotesShare
Eric Jones D 63,317 51.5%
Mike Thompson D 59,570 48.5%
Total122,887

500 of 500 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 4:46 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 9:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Yolo 29,228 — — — 55%
Sonoma 28,933 — — — 41%
Placer 18,617 — — — 51%
Napa 17,887 — — — 30%
Sutter 11,460 — — — 35%
Yuba 7,139 — — — 32%
Sacramento 5,463 — — — 32%
Colusa 3,612 — — — 61%
Lake 548 — — — 23%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+716 votes122,887—
+2,284 votes122,171—
+917 votes119,887—
+163 votes118,970—
+4,333 votes118,807—
+547 votes114,474—
+2,423 votes113,927—
+7 votes111,504—
+1,136 votes111,497—
+16 votes110,361—
+803 votes110,345—
+803 votes109,542—