Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Iowa · U.S. House

Iowa 4th District

Chris McGowan wins. Called.

99% counted
CandidateVotesShare
Chris McGowan R won 178,845 59.1%
Dave Dawson D 123,940 40.9%
Total302,785

31 of 317 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 7:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Story 41,229 D +24.8 D +10.5 D +14.3 100%
Woodbury 33,343 R +8.0 R +23.3 D +15.3 100%
Pottawattamie 33,228 R +4.3 R +20.2 D +15.9 100%
Sioux 14,974 R +65.7 R +71.9 D +6.1 100%
Marshall 14,163 D +1.2 R +15.8 D +17.0 100%
Webster 12,466 R +14.7 R +31.6 D +16.9 100%
Boone 12,071 R +6.3 R +21.9 D +15.6 100%
Plymouth 10,671 R +45.1 R +54.9 D +9.8 100%
Dickinson 9,332 R +33.9 R +40.4 D +6.5 100%
Carroll 8,482 R +32.5 R +42.5 D +10.0 100%
Kossuth 6,586 R +35.7 R +44.7 D +9.1 100%
Clay 6,458 R +31.9 R +43.7 D +11.9 100%
Mills 6,039 R +27.0 R +39.6 D +12.6 100%
Hamilton 5,726 R +18.5 R +33.7 D +15.1 100%
Buena Vista 5,700 R +16.1 R +33.7 D +17.5 100%
Harrison 5,658 R +28.5 R +42.5 D +14.1 100%
O'Brien 5,429 R +52.0 R +61.5 D +9.5 100%
Lyon 5,294 R +64.1 R +70.4 D +6.3 100%
Crawford 4,825 R +24.8 R +43.9 D +19.2 100%
Shelby 4,739 R +34.1 R +43.5 D +9.4 100%
Cherokee 4,680 R +31.3 R +46.4 D +15.1 100%
Hancock 4,485 R +39.3 R +48.0 D +8.7 100%
Winnebago 4,352 R +23.2 R +31.1 D +7.9 100%
Wright 4,273 R +24.4 R +37.0 D +12.6 100%
Sac 4,133 R +40.4 R +52.2 D +11.7 100%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+45,748 votes302,785R +18.1
+22,673 votes257,037R +24.5
+4,273 votes234,364R +25.6
+3,659 votes230,091R +25.6
+6,093 votes226,432R +25.5
+5,429 votes220,339R +25.7
+4,306 votes214,910R +25.1
+2,709 votes210,604R +25.0
Chris McGowan wins——
+14,012 votes207,895R +24.7
+3,466 votes193,883R +23.5
+5,726 votes190,417R +23.3