Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Florida · U.S. House

Florida 15th District

Laurel Lee wins. Called.

99% counted
CandidateVotesShare
Laurel Lee R won 163,251 54.3%
Robert People D 137,390 45.7%
Total300,641

189 of 189 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 5:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Hernando 79,488 R +27.7 R +37.3 D +9.6 100%
Hillsborough 76,099 D +40.3 D +23.7 D +16.6 100%
Citrus 74,546 R +42.3 R +46.2 D +3.8 100%
Pasco 70,508 R +4.1 R +19.5 D +15.4 100%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+206 votes300,641R +8.6
+100 votes300,435R +8.6
+2,312 votes300,335R +8.7
+655 votes298,023R +8.7
+313 votes297,368R +8.9
+5,030 votes297,055R +8.9
+2,616 votes292,025R +8.2
+6,824 votes289,409R +8.7
+433 votes282,585R +8.0
+6,378 votes282,152R +8.0
+10,660 votes275,774R +8.9
+412 votes265,114R +7.7