Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Kentucky · U.S. House

Kentucky 6th District

Zach Dembo wins. Called. A change from Republican control.

99% counted
CandidateVotesShare
Zach Dembo D won 138,778 52.7%
Ralph Alvarado R 114,030 43.3%
Jay Bowman I 6,710 2.5%
Pete Lynch UNA 3,836 1.5%
Total263,354

Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 4:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Fayette 113,084 D +39.0 D +18.5 D +20.5 100%
Madison 31,294 R +4.2 R +31.5 D +27.3 100%
Scott 21,005 R +0.5 R +28.2 D +27.7 100%
Jessamine 18,915 R +13.6 R +36.5 D +22.9 100%
Clark 12,847 R +13.6 R +35.9 D +22.2 100%
Woodford 12,157 D +5.3 R +14.5 D +19.8 100%
Montgomery 8,614 R +22.3 R +47.3 D +25.0 100%
Mercer 8,321 R +23.1 R +51.3 D +28.2 100%
Anderson 7,531 R +23.2 R +48.2 D +25.0 100%
Bourbon 6,855 R +8.8 R +34.1 D +25.3 100%
Garrard 5,636 R +38.7 R +61.0 D +22.3 100%
Fleming 4,666 R +36.2 R +61.4 D +25.2 100%
Estill 4,458 R +39.0 R +64.1 D +25.1 100%
Powell 4,142 R +29.6 R +55.4 D +25.8 100%
Nicholas 2,662 R +16.8 R +49.7 D +32.9 100%
Bath 1,167 R +27.7 R +58.3 D +30.6 100%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+4,142 votes263,354D +9.8
+8,321 votes259,212D +10.4
+21,189 votes250,891D +11.5
+11,333 votes229,702D +14.6
+4,219 votes218,369D +12.3
+13 votes214,150D +13.3
+4,666 votes214,137D +13.3
Zach Dembo wins——
+4,612 votes209,471D +14.4
+68,483 votes204,859D +14.8
+239 votes136,376D +4.2
+5,260 votes136,137D +4.3