Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Kansas · Governor

Kansas Governor

Holscher leads by 7,047 votes. Not called.

99% counted

Our forecast: Cindy Holscher, 99% chance of winning. Projected finish Holscher +0.6. This isn't a race call.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 26 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

CandidateVotesShare
Cindy Holscher D 549,977 50.3%
Ty Masterson R 542,930 49.7%
Total1,092,907

4,147 of 4,172 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 5:48 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 7:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Johnson 294,984 D +22.7 D +8.6 D +14.1 100%
Sedgwick 181,285 D +4.6 R +14.1 D +18.7 100%
Shawnee 69,061 D +13.9 D +0.5 D +13.4 100%
Douglas 50,702 D +52.2 D +38.6 D +13.5 100%
Wyandotte 42,895 D +45.8 D +24.2 D +21.6 100%
Leavenworth 28,279 R +6.6 R +23.3 D +16.6 100%
Butler 25,927 R +26.0 R +42.0 D +16.0 100%
Reno 21,629 R +20.2 R +35.2 D +15.0 100%
Riley 19,928 D +17.4 D +1.8 D +15.6 100%
Saline 19,524 R +17.7 R +32.2 D +14.4 100%
Miami 14,040 R +23.8 R +40.3 D +16.5 100%
Harvey 13,643 R +7.6 R +21.5 D +13.8 100%
Crawford 12,133 R +8.1 R +25.7 D +17.7 99%
McPherson 11,475 R +28.6 R +41.9 D +13.3 100%
Lyon 11,208 D +2.6 R +15.0 D +17.6 100%
Pottawatomie 10,782 R +33.7 R +48.6 D +14.9 100%
Ellis 10,619 R +27.9 R +47.0 D +19.2 100%
Cowley 10,451 R +24.9 R +41.0 D +16.1 100%
Franklin 9,737 R +23.7 R +40.9 D +17.3 99%
Finney 9,072 R +1.2 R +35.3 D +34.1 100%
Montgomery 9,016 R +34.1 R +52.0 D +17.9 100%
Barton 8,425 R +42.0 R +57.6 D +15.6 100%
Sumner 8,081 R +33.1 R +51.1 D +18.1 100%
Jefferson 7,879 R +23.7 R +37.7 D +14.0 100%
Ford 7,177 R +2.0 R +39.1 D +37.0 100%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+4 votes1,092,907D +0.6
+1 votes1,092,903D +0.6
+4 votes1,092,902D +0.6
+4 votes1,092,898D +0.6
+2 votes1,092,894D +0.6
+6 votes1,092,892D +0.6
+15 votes1,092,886D +0.6
+15 votes1,092,871D +0.6
+1 votes1,092,856D +0.6
+32 votes1,092,855D +0.6
+29 votes1,092,823D +0.6
+2 votes1,092,794D +0.6