Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

States

Every state's races at a glance, and how far its House vote has moved since 2022 and 2024.

StateSenateGovernor House DHouse ROpen House marginSince 2024Since 2022
Alabama
Moore R
Tuberville R
25 R +9.0 — —
Alaska
Peltola D leads, 70% countedForecast: Peltola 81%
Kreiss-Tomkins D leads, 69% countedForecast: Kreiss-Tomkins 99%
001 R +74.3 R +73.3 R +74.0
Arizona None
Hobbs D
513 D +10.5 D +13.2 D +11.4
Arkansas
Cotton R
Sanders R
04 R +19.1 D +16.4 D +17.8
California None
Becerra D
4822 D +37.4 — —
Colorado
Hickenlooper D
Weiser D
512 D +23.2 D +12.0 D +11.9
Connecticut None
Lamont D
50 D +27.1 D +8.5 D +11.3
Delaware
Coons D
None 10 D +28.7 D +12.9 D +16.0
Florida
Moody R
Donalds R
7174 R +2.2 — —
Georgia
Ossoff D
Bottoms D
59 D +12.4 D +15.9 —
Hawaii None
Green D
20 D +41.6 D +1.2 D +4.9
Idaho
Risch R
Little R
02 R +26.2 D +14.4 D +11.1
Illinois
Stratton D
Pritzker D
143 D +25.0 D +13.6 D +12.8
Indiana None None 36 D +3.4 D +23.0 D +24.2
Iowa
Turek D
Sand D
31 D +1.3 D +14.3 D +14.0
Kansas
Hamilton D
Holscher D leads, 99% countedForecast: Holscher 99%
13 R +2.2 D +14.7 D +11.8
Kentucky
Barr R
None 24 R +10.2 D +21.5 D +21.3
Louisiana
Letlow R
None 132 R +10.0 — —
Maine
Jackson D
Pingree D
101 D +16.3 R +20.2 D +0.7
Maryland None
Moore D
71 D +35.7 D +7.6 D +5.5
Massachusetts
Markey D
Healey D
90 D +39.6 D +5.6 D +3.9
Michigan
El-Sayed D
Benson D
841 D +9.1 D +9.9 D +6.2
Minnesota
Flanagan D
Klobuchar D
431 D +12.9 D +11.0 D +10.9
Mississippi
Colom D leads, 99% countedForecast: Colom 86%
None 13 R +5.0 D +19.2 D +23.7
Missouri None None 35 R +0.7 D +17.9 D +19.2
Montana
Alme R
None 11 R +10.5 D +7.9 D +12.1
Nebraska
Ricketts R
Pillen R
12 R +13.8 D +13.0 D +13.6
Nevada None
Ford D
40 D +17.2 D +15.8 D +20.3
New Hampshire
Pappas D
Ayotte R
20 D +18.1 D +11.0 D +8.2
New Jersey
Booker D
None 111 D +28.3 D +18.8 D +16.2
New Mexico
Lujan D
Haaland D
30 D +23.1 D +12.9 D +13.2
New York None
Hochul D
1943 D +24.6 D +10.4 —
North Carolina
Cooper D
None 905 D +15.3 — —
North Dakota None None 01 R +22.0 D +17.0 —
Ohio
Brown D
Acton D
87 D +3.1 — —
Oklahoma
Hern R
Mazzei R
05 R +17.3 D +19.8 D +18.4
Oregon
Merkley D
Kotek D
51 D +14.9 D +5.7 D +8.8
Pennsylvania None
Shapiro D
116 D +13.3 D +15.7 D +13.4
Rhode Island
Reed D
Foulkes D
20 D +32.3 D +8.5 D +17.6
South Carolina
Andrews D
Wilson R
25 R +2.7 D +17.7 D +17.9
South Dakota
Rounds R
Rhoden R
01 R +28.0 D +16.1 —
Tennessee
Hagerty R
Blackburn R
081 R +9.0 — —
Texas
Talarico D
Hinojosa D
14222 D +5.8 — —
Utah None None 13 Even — —
Vermont None
Scott R
10 D +35.7 — D +3.8
Virginia
Warner D
None 83 D +18.8 D +14.9 D +15.5
Washington None None 802 D +27.1 D +10.0 D +11.6
West Virginia
Capito R
None 02 R +18.5 D +23.9 D +16.5
Wisconsin None
Crowley D
44 D +12.6 D +11.2 D +11.1
Wyoming
Hageman R
Barlow R
01 R +23.6 D +26.8 D +23.7
United StatesD +11.9D +13.1D +12.8

"Since 2024" and "since 2022" compare House races whose districts have not been redrawn, weighted by votes counted this year. Blank means the state has no comparable race.