Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

New York · U.S. House

New York 20th District

Paul Tonko wins. Called.

94% counted
CandidateVotesShare
Paul Tonko D won 180,668 63.7%
Ralph Ambrosio R 103,135 36.3%
Total283,803

85 of 85 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 7:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Albany 115,521 D +38.4 D +25.8 D +12.6 97%
Saratoga 77,631 D +16.7 D +6.3 D +10.4 91%
Schenectady 52,408 D +26.3 D +10.8 D +15.5 91%
Rensselaer 30,691 D +20.2 D +5.9 D +14.3 97%
Montgomery 7,552 D +2.8 R +15.1 D +17.9 83%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+349 votes283,803D +27.3
+405 votes283,454D +27.3
+11 votes283,049D +27.2
+5,624 votes283,038D +27.2
+11,533 votes277,414D +26.6
+14,185 votes265,881D +27.2
+12,135 votes251,696D +28.3
+8,425 votes239,561D +29.2
+2,532 votes231,136D +30.3
+5,803 votes228,604D +30.4
+2,197 votes222,801D +30.9
+7,210 votes220,604D +31.2