Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

States

California

2 races undecided, about 69% counted, 5 changed party.

How the count runs here

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 12 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

Stats

Each race against past elections

RaceSince 2024Since 2022
GovernorD +7.9D +10.3

Statewide

Governor

Xavier Becerra won
64.3%5,330,319
Steve Hilton
35.7%2,954,646
63% counted

Congress

District 1

Mike McGuire won
56.1%95,537
James Gallagher
43.9%74,743
54% counted

District 2

Jared Huffman won
66.3%111,338
Robin Littau
33.7%56,613
47% counted

District 3

Ami Bera won
57.0%95,702
Robb Tucker
43.0%72,252
53% counted

District 4

Eric Jones
51.5%62,874
Mike Thompson
48.5%59,297
41% counted

District 5

Tom McClintock >99% chance
56.0%107,104
Michael Masuda
44.0%84,094
68% counted

District 6

Richard Pan won
57.5%86,732
Kevin Kiley
42.5%64,143
51% counted

District 7

Doris Matsui
57.5%77,536
Mai Vang
42.5%57,310
45% counted

District 8

John Garamendi won
71.9%124,945
Rudy Recile
28.1%48,853
66% counted

District 9

Josh Harder won
65.8%78,226
John McBride
34.2%40,665
53% counted

District 10

Mark DeSaulnier won
69.1%131,901
Jeff Frese
30.9%59,082
61% counted

District 11

Scott Wiener
55.5%97,876
Connie Chan
44.5%78,594
56% counted

District 12

Lateefah Simon won
79.8%108,161
Jamie Joyce
20.2%27,460
51% counted

District 13

Adam Gray won
61.4%58,378
Kevin Lincoln
38.6%36,772
56% counted

District 14

Aisha Wahab
56.5%68,612
Melissa Hernandez
43.5%52,755
49% counted

District 15

Kevin Mullin won
78.0%113,187
Charles Hoelter
22.0%32,008
52% counted

District 16

Sam Liccardo won
76.2%115,461
Peter Soulé
23.8%36,103
55% counted

District 17

Ro Khanna won
70.6%75,971
Ritesh Tandon
29.4%31,621
48% counted

District 18

Zoe Lofgren won
71.8%75,897
Shane Lewis
28.2%29,819
48% counted

District 19

Jimmy Panetta won
72.0%136,654
Peter Verbica
28.0%53,040
60% counted

District 20

Vince Fong won
62.6%91,955
Sandra Van Scotter
37.4%54,981
67% counted

District 21

Jim Costa won
62.8%60,705
Kyle Kirkland
37.2%35,944
55% counted

District 22

Randy Villegas won
66.3%55,563
David Valadao
33.7%28,255
55% counted

District 23

Jay Obernolte 85% chance
51.4%67,672
Tessa Hodge 15% chance
48.6%64,101
70% counted

District 24

Salud Carbajal won
66.1%117,780
Bob Smith
33.9%60,469
58% counted

District 25

Raul Ruiz won
64.7%76,658
Joe Males
35.3%41,876
62% counted

District 26

Jacqui Irwin won
61.8%119,043
Sam Gallucci
38.2%73,430
69% counted

District 27

George Whitesides won
62.4%112,641
Jason Gibbs
37.6%67,761
82% counted

District 28

Judy Chu won
69.4%135,318
April Verlato
30.6%59,737
89% counted

District 29

Luz Rivas won
59.6%75,853
Angélica Dueñas
40.4%51,464
66% counted

District 30

Laura Friedman won
76.2%149,559
Scott Meyers
23.8%46,811
83% counted

District 31

Gil Cisneros won
64.5%113,426
Eric Ching
35.5%62,520
82% counted

District 32

Brad Sherman won
66.6%138,420
Larry Thompson
33.4%69,562
83% counted

District 33

Pete Aguilar won
67.6%76,869
Stephanie Vargas
32.4%36,781
62% counted

District 34

Angela Gonzales-Torres won
59.7%75,286
Jimmy Gomez
40.3%50,878
70% counted

District 35

Norma Torres won
65.6%75,296
Mike Cargile
34.4%39,561
61% counted

District 36

Ted Lieu won
71.7%168,351
Houston Brignano
28.3%66,445
95% counted

District 37

Sydney Kamlager Dove won
62.0%83,491
Samantha Mota
38.0%51,137
68% counted

District 38

Hilda Solis won
65.9%107,458
Pedro Casas
34.1%55,649
76% counted

District 39

Mark Takano won
65.9%54,601
Steve Manos
34.1%28,191
42% counted

District 40

Ken Calvert
54.4%76,014
Young Kim
45.6%63,733
51% counted

District 41

Linda Sanchez won
65.9%125,248
Mitch Clemmons
34.1%64,793
81% counted

District 42

Robert Garcia won
60.1%123,914
Brian Burley
39.9%82,151
79% counted

District 43

Maxine Waters won
81.8%112,061
Christian Morales
18.2%24,861
69% counted

District 44

Nanette Barragan won
80.4%106,977
Genevieve Angel
19.6%26,035
68% counted

District 45

Derek Tran won
59.2%111,190
Chuong Vo
40.8%76,487
73% counted

District 46

Lou Correa won
68.5%90,108
David Pan
31.5%41,443
60% counted

District 47

Dave Min won
56.9%120,308
Jenny Roux
43.1%91,134
76% counted

District 48

Marni von Wilpert won
59.5%95,547
Jim Desmond
40.5%65,023
65% counted

District 49

Mike Levin won
57.4%121,663
Armen Kurdian
42.6%90,386
73% counted

District 50

Scott Peters won
61.0%117,694
Steve Cohen
39.0%75,182
68% counted

District 51

Sara Jacobs won
63.1%109,166
Ricardo Cabrera
36.9%63,712
61% counted

District 52

Juan Vargas won
68.9%90,084
Jeff Belle
31.1%40,604
50% counted

Counties

CountyVotesCountedSince 2024Since 2022
Los Angeles2,245,48480%D +12.9—
San Diego752,23670%D +7.6D +8.6
Orange808,24175%D +9.0D +14.8
San Bernardino357,31170%D +20.2D +20.6
Santa Clara312,27951%D +3.0—
Riverside346,26755%D +20.5—
Contra Costa264,25059%D +6.1—
Ventura203,75962%D +8.6D +13.3
Fresno163,41463%D +14.3D +15.3
San Mateo162,41456%D +3.6—
Kern128,04658%D +18.9D +20.6
Solano111,54582%D +9.6D +7.9
San Joaquin116,08056%D +21.8D +12.8
Santa Barbara98,68562%D +6.2D +11.7
Monterey88,42974%D +16.1D +12.9
Sacramento253,07245%D +6.2—
Stanislaus84,66656%D +15.6D +17.3
Sonoma103,61744%D +5.7—
Santa Cruz69,56757%D +5.7D +4.2
San Luis Obispo67,09548%D +7.8D +11.2
Marin65,28347%R +1.1R +1.1
Tulare61,08758%D +16.5D +19.0
Butte58,86870%R +0.7R +2.1
Merced41,02563%D +19.4D +10.4
Placer122,64758%D +1.2—
Shasta31,29840%D +12.0D +6.7
Alameda286,75750%D +3.1—
Madera29,04268%D +18.6D +20.6
Nevada28,73850%D +4.6D +5.3
Kings26,77386%D +15.7D +19.0
Humboldt24,97345%D +6.8D +3.6
Imperial21,47069%D +37.0D +13.9
San Francisco194,91360%D +17.1—
Tuolumne18,41568%D +10.3D +10.6
Mendocino17,29249%D +10.4D +5.3
Tehama16,88970%D +5.8D +0.6
Calaveras16,32165%D +8.1D +7.2
Amador15,25370%D +11.6D +12.5
El Dorado55,28854%D +7.5—
Siskiyou13,47065%D +7.2D +8.7
San Benito7,26232%D +9.2D +12.5
Lake7,59133%D +12.6—
Mariposa6,76274%D +6.9D +6.5
Plumas6,46164%D +2.4D +3.7
Lassen6,23960%D +5.2D +9.2
Del Norte5,43256%D +15.9D +11.8
Mono4,78491%D +6.4D +10.9
Inyo4,13647%D +8.8D +8.7
Glenn3,74041%D +0.8D +3.4
Yolo43,17155%D +2.5—
Trinity2,72153%D +10.8D +7.0
Modoc2,38861%D +9.4D +8.4
Sierra1,45079%D +1.2D +1.3
Alpine55479%D +5.3D +16.7
Napa17,88730%——
Sutter11,46035%——
Yuba7,13932%——
Colusa2,89649%——