Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Arkansas · U.S. Senate

Arkansas Senate

Tom Cotton wins. Called.

99% counted
CandidateVotesShare
Tom Cotton R won 480,860 54.2%
Hallie Shoffner D 375,821 42.4%
Jeff Wadlin L 30,164 3.4%
Total886,845

2,768 of 2,768 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 6:30 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Pulaski 130,223 D +36.0 D +22.7 D +13.3 100%
Benton 99,022 R +6.3 R +27.7 D +21.4 100%
Washington 76,041 D +18.0 R +6.9 D +24.9 100%
Saline 43,533 R +24.0 R +41.0 D +17.0 100%
Faulkner 40,306 R +12.8 R +33.1 D +20.4 100%
Sebastian 33,208 R +20.1 R +38.5 D +18.4 100%
Garland 31,602 R +23.8 R +37.1 D +13.3 100%
Craighead 26,180 R +14.0 R +38.3 D +24.3 100%
Lonoke 22,674 R +38.3 R +54.8 D +16.5 100%
White 22,350 R +47.9 R +62.6 D +14.7 100%
Jefferson 17,185 D +30.0 D +20.4 D +9.6 100%
Pope 16,643 R +35.6 R +53.5 D +17.9 100%
Crawford 16,117 R +43.8 R +59.3 D +15.5 100%
Baxter 14,249 R +48.0 R +57.8 D +9.9 100%
Union 12,139 R +20.2 R +34.0 D +13.8 100%
Boone 11,406 R +51.4 R +66.1 D +14.7 100%
Crittenden 10,941 D +19.2 D +2.3 D +16.9 100%
Miller 10,710 R +39.8 R +51.7 D +11.9 100%
Greene 10,631 R +43.2 R +62.3 D +19.1 100%
Cleburne 9,584 R +60.2 R +69.0 D +8.9 100%
Independence 9,139 R +44.7 R +60.8 D +16.1 100%
Carroll 8,745 R +13.3 R +32.4 D +19.1 100%
Hot Spring 8,533 R +37.6 R +53.2 D +15.6 100%
Mississippi 7,681 R +7.1 R +32.2 D +25.0 100%
Johnson 6,649 R +31.8 R +52.5 D +20.7 100%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+97 votes886,845R +12.3
+164 votes886,748R +12.3
+30 votes886,584R +12.3
+83 votes886,554R +12.3
+76 votes886,471R +12.3
Count revised by -1,789 votes886,395R +12.3
+5,521 votes888,184R +12.3
+3,684 votes882,663R +12.0
+4,290 votes878,979R +11.9
+1,728 votes874,689R +11.7
+127 votes872,961R +11.7
+130,210 votes872,834R +11.7