Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

California · U.S. House

California 1st District

Mike McGuire wins. Called. A change from Republican control.

54% counted
CandidateVotesShare
Mike McGuire D won 95,537 56.1%
James Gallagher R 74,743 43.9%
Total170,280

788 of 788 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 4:13 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 9:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Sonoma 59,199 D +53.3 D +47.8 D +5.5 45%
Butte 58,868 R +3.9 R +3.2 R +0.6 70%
Tehama 16,889 R +37.0 R +42.8 D +5.8 70%
Mendocino 10,391 D +25.2 D +16.8 D +8.5 45%
Lake 7,043 D +12.9 D +0.4 D +12.6 34%
Plumas 6,461 R +15.1 R +17.5 D +2.4 64%
Lassen 6,239 R +50.1 R +55.3 D +5.2 60%
Glenn 3,740 R +35.1 R +35.9 D +0.8 41%
Sierra 1,450 R +23.7 R +24.9 D +1.2 79%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+6,699 votes170,280D +12.2
+4,402 votes163,581D +13.5
+3,919 votes159,179D +12.4
+3 votes155,260D +13.7
+730 votes155,257D +13.7
+69 votes154,527D +14.0
+1,085 votes154,458D +14.1
+417 votes153,373D +14.3
+893 votes152,956D +14.4
+130 votes152,063D +14.2
+3,156 votes151,933D +14.2
+2,382 votes148,777D +13.9