Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Kentucky · U.S. House

Kentucky 5th District

Hal Rogers wins. Called.

99% counted
CandidateVotesShare
Hal Rogers R won 139,709 71.0%
Ned Pillersdorf D 50,240 25.5%
Mikel Wein I 4,144 2.1%
Gerardo Serrano I 2,742 1.4%
Total196,835

Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 4:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Pulaski 19,508 R +58.6 R +65.9 D +7.3 100%
Laurel 15,716 R +57.9 R +70.7 D +12.8 100%
Pike 14,411 R +40.3 R +66.0 D +25.7 100%
Boyd 12,391 R +20.2 R +39.1 D +18.9 100%
Floyd 11,168 R +22.6 R +60.2 D +37.6 100%
Whitley 8,186 R +60.5 R +70.0 D +9.5 100%
Perry 7,334 R +35.4 R +60.2 D +24.8 100%
Knox 6,908 R +60.4 R +72.0 D +11.6 100%
Lincoln 6,706 R +52.7 R +61.9 D +9.2 100%
Rowan 6,548 R +11.4 R +28.2 D +16.9 100%
Carter 6,301 R +40.7 R +57.8 D +17.1 100%
Harlan 5,751 R +62.3 R +76.7 D +14.4 100%
Johnson 5,675 R +48.3 R +71.6 D +23.2 100%
Bell 5,670 R +59.2 R +69.3 D +10.1 100%
Letcher 5,614 R +35.0 R +64.9 D +29.9 100%
Wayne 5,382 R +60.4 R +66.6 D +6.2 100%
Knott 4,542 R +31.0 R +60.1 D +29.1 100%
Clay 4,447 R +71.8 R +81.4 D +9.6 100%
Magoffin 4,271 R +36.3 R +65.0 D +28.7 100%
Rockcastle 4,256 R +67.5 R +74.1 D +6.6 100%
Morgan 3,909 R +49.8 R +64.5 D +14.7 100%
McCreary 3,896 R +77.6 R +79.2 D +1.6 100%
Jackson 3,633 R +74.9 R +82.7 D +7.9 100%
Lawrence 3,614 R +49.8 R +67.9 D +18.2 100%
Breathitt 3,538 R +29.7 R +60.2 D +30.5 100%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+367 votes196,835R +47.1
+2,458 votes196,468R +47.5
+2,434 votes194,010R +47.5
+3,909 votes191,576R +47.2
+2,207 votes187,667R +47.2
+1,512 votes185,460R +47.4
+6,706 votes183,948R +47.2
+1,840 votes177,242R +47.0
+5,614 votes175,402R +46.8
+5,382 votes169,788R +47.2
+3,896 votes164,406R +46.8
+3,614 votes160,510R +46.0