Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

States

Kansas

1 race undecided, about 99% counted, 1 changed party. The state's House vote has moved D +14.7 since 2024. D +11.8 since 2022.

How the count runs here

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 26 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

Stats

Counties vs. 2024Counties vs. 2022The spreadContests vs. 2024Contests vs. 2022

Kansas counties vs. 2024

How far has each county moved since the 2024 president?

R +80 R +60 R +40 R +20 Even D +20 D +40 D +60 D +80 R +80 R +60 R +40 R +20 Even D +20 D +40 D +60 D +80 House margin this year 2024 president margin Seward Neosho Ford Finney R for president, D here: 2 D for both: 5 R for both: 98 D for president, R here: 0

Democrat aheadRepublican aheadNo changeThe patternFar from the pattern

Blue squares are good for Democrats and red for Republicans. The darker squares are counties voting differently for House than for president. Above the black line, a county moved toward Democrats.

97 moved toward Democrats, 8 toward Republicans. The middle shift is D +6.4.

4 far from the pattern
  • Seward: 34 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 100% counted
  • Neosho: 22 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 100% counted
  • Ford: 22 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 100% counted
  • Finney: 18 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 100% counted

Being far from the pattern is a reason to look, not a finding. Usual causes are a popular or weak candidate, an unopposed race last time, or a batch of ballots still to come.

Kansas counties vs. 2022

How far has each county moved since the 2022 House vote?

R +80 R +60 R +40 R +20 Even D +20 D +40 D +60 D +80 R +80 R +60 R +40 R +20 Even D +20 D +40 D +60 D +80 House margin this year 2022 House vote margin Seward Ford Finney Nemaha Neosho Was R, now D: 3 D both times: 4 R both times: 98 Was D, now R: 0

Democrat aheadRepublican aheadNo changeThe patternFar from the pattern

Blue squares are good for Democrats and red for Republicans. The darker squares are counties that changed sides. Above the black line, a county moved toward Democrats.

93 moved toward Democrats, 12 toward Republicans. The middle shift is D +7.3.

6 far from the pattern
  • Seward: 38 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 100% counted
  • Ford: 25 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 100% counted
  • Finney: 20 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 100% counted
  • Nemaha: 17 points toward Republicans of the pattern, 100% counted
  • Neosho: 17 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 100% counted
  • Morris: 14 points toward Republicans of the pattern, 100% counted

Being far from the pattern is a reason to look, not a finding. Usual causes are a popular or weak candidate, an unopposed race last time, or a batch of ballots still to come.

How Kansas's counties moved

Did the state move together, or are some counties far from the rest?

R +50 R +30 R +10 D +10 D +30 D +50 Change in margin Since 2024: 105 counties, middle D +6.4 Since 2022: 105 counties, middle D +7.3 Toward Republicans Toward Democrats

Toward DemocratsToward RepublicansMiddle

Right of Even, in blue, moved toward Democrats, which is good for them. Left of it, in red, moved toward Republicans. Bars far from the main hump stand apart from the rest.

6 far from the pattern
  • Seward: D +46.3 since 2022, 39 points from the middle
  • Ford: D +33.3 since 2022, 26 points from the middle
  • Neosho: D +29.6 since 2024, 23 points from the middle
  • Finney: D +27.9 since 2024, 21 points from the middle
  • Nemaha: R +10.3 since 2022, 18 points from the middle
  • Wyandotte: D +22.3 since 2024, 16 points from the middle

Being far from the pattern is a reason to look, not a finding. Usual causes are a popular or weak candidate, an unopposed race last time, or a batch of ballots still to come.

Every Kansas contest vs. 2024

How far has each race on the ballot moved since 2024?

R +40 R +30 R +20 R +10 Even D +10 D +20 D +30 D +40 R +40 R +30 R +20 R +10 Even D +10 D +20 D +30 D +40 Margin this year Margin in 2024 Flipped to Democrats: 2 Stayed Democratic: 1 Stayed Republican: 3 Flipped to Republicans: 0

Democrat aheadRepublican aheadNo changeThe pattern

Blue squares are good for Democrats and red squares for Republicans; the darker squares changed sides. Above the black line a race moved toward Democrats, even if it's still in a red square. Below it, toward Republicans.

6 moved toward Democrats, 0 toward Republicans. The middle shift is D +16.6.

Every Kansas contest vs. 2022

How far has each race on the ballot moved since 2022?

R +40 R +30 R +20 R +10 Even D +10 D +20 D +30 D +40 R +40 R +30 R +20 R +10 Even D +10 D +20 D +30 D +40 Margin this year Margin in 2022 Flipped to Democrats: 1 Stayed Democratic: 2 Stayed Republican: 3 Flipped to Republicans: 0

Democrat aheadRepublican aheadNo changeThe pattern

Blue squares are good for Democrats and red squares for Republicans; the darker squares changed sides. Above the black line a race moved toward Democrats, even if it's still in a red square. Below it, toward Republicans.

5 moved toward Democrats, 1 toward Republicans. The middle shift is D +11.1.

Each race against past elections

RaceSince 2024Since 2022
U.S. SenateD +21.6D +28.8
GovernorD +17.1R +1.6
District 1D +16.1D +13.1
District 2D +13.3D +8.8
District 3D +10.4D +9.1
District 4D +20.4D +16.9

Statewide

U.S. Senate

Adam Hamilton won
51.0%559,856
Roger Marshall
46.0%504,950
David Graham
3.0%33,318
99% counted

Governor

Cindy Holscher 99% chance
50.3%549,977
Ty Masterson 1% chance
49.7%542,930
99% counted

Congress

District 1

Tracey Mann won
59.4%150,342
Lauren Reinhold
37.9%95,750
Steven Jacob
2.7%6,846
99% counted

District 2

Derek Schmidt won
51.3%125,639
Don Coover
45.0%110,244
John Hauer
3.7%9,165
99% counted

District 3

Sharice Davids won
59.5%200,689
Eric Jenkins
38.4%129,432
Steven Hohe
2.1%6,916
99% counted

District 4

Ron Estes won
53.6%138,994
Katy Tyndell
44.1%114,306
Drew Cranmer
2.4%6,175
99% counted

Counties

CountyVotesCountedSince 2024Since 2022
Johnson295,007100%D +16.1D +8.7
Sedgwick181,750100%D +15.2D +18.0
Shawnee69,302100%D +8.5D +4.4
Douglas50,530100%D +10.6D +10.3
Wyandotte42,792100%D +22.3D +14.3
Leavenworth28,263100%D +13.2D +9.2
Butler26,055100%D +10.3D +12.6
Reno21,610100%D +6.6D +12.7
Riley19,933100%D +8.8D +15.7
Saline19,562100%D +4.4D +15.0
Miami14,091100%D +18.8D +7.5
Harvey13,690100%D +7.4D +11.9
Crawford12,181100%D +20.3D +12.3
McPherson11,481100%D +3.8D +10.3
Lyon11,195100%D +9.4D +2.5
Pottawatomie10,809100%D +5.8D +10.8
Ellis10,613100%D +8.3D +10.6
Cowley10,478100%D +12.5D +12.2
Franklin9,769100%D +20.7D +7.7
Montgomery9,036100%D +11.1D +7.8
Finney9,060100%D +27.9D +28.5
Barton8,424100%D +4.6D +8.4
Sumner8,135100%D +12.1D +11.9
Jefferson7,873100%D +8.1D +7.7
Ford7,180100%D +30.9D +33.3
Dickinson7,177100%D +4.0D +8.0
Geary6,720100%D +13.0D +12.1
Cherokee6,051100%D +15.4D +10.4
Osage6,086100%D +10.9R +0.3
Labette5,832100%D +18.3D +13.5
Jackson5,241100%D +8.0D +11.7
Atchison5,165100%D +13.5D +9.1
Neosho4,931100%D +29.6D +24.3
Marion4,704100%D +1.3R +0.9
Bourbon4,571100%D +13.8D +7.4
Nemaha4,493100%D +1.9R +10.3
Seward4,163100%D +43.6D +46.3
Allen4,099100%D +17.7D +8.9
Marshall3,899100%D +1.3D +6.1
Linn3,618100%D +8.2D +3.0
Coffey3,372100%D +5.4R +1.3
Brown3,384100%D +7.7R +0.1
Clay3,310100%D +0.9D +8.2
Pratt3,294100%D +8.9D +10.3
Wabaunsee3,258100%D +6.0R +3.8
Kingman3,121100%D +8.1D +9.4
Cloud3,144100%D +7.1D +8.2
Rice3,124100%D +6.1D +9.8
Thomas2,845100%D +4.6D +6.7
Anderson2,858100%D +14.6D +1.8
Wilson2,799100%D +13.2D +10.9
Doniphan2,567100%D +5.6D +1.8
Russell2,549100%D +2.1D +7.3
Mitchell2,473100%R +1.0D +2.3
Ottawa2,437100%R +0.5D +2.6
Morris2,337100%D +9.0R +5.9
Ellsworth2,249100%D +1.0D +8.9
Greenwood2,213100%D +5.4D +6.8
Washington2,151100%R +1.9D +6.9
Pawnee2,058100%D +1.7D +4.6
Phillips1,974100%R +1.5D +2.7
Republic1,945100%D +2.9D +6.0
Rooks1,924100%D +3.5D +5.5
Sherman1,907100%D +3.4D +6.3
Harper1,865100%D +5.7D +9.0
Norton1,794100%D +1.6D +5.6
Barber1,668100%D +3.8D +5.2
Scott1,655100%D +7.6D +9.4
Gray1,645100%D +7.7D +1.6
Grant1,643100%D +13.6D +13.0
Smith1,523100%D +1.2D +5.8
Stafford1,498100%D +6.5D +9.5
Trego1,357100%D +0.1D +2.5
Meade1,358100%D +6.8D +2.4
Stevens1,359100%D +14.7D +13.9
Rush1,290100%D +2.8D +4.9
Osborne1,297100%R +1.0D +6.5
Lincoln1,281100%R +2.6D +5.5
Jewell1,201100%D +0.1R +1.1
Chase1,147100%D +6.8R +0.8
Logan1,113100%D +1.5D +5.2
Chautauqua1,110100%D +5.1D +6.8
Woodson1,118100%D +8.4D +3.5
Decatur1,095100%R +0.3D +2.5
Sheridan1,085100%D +2.0D +4.8
Ness1,080100%D +4.3D +6.7
Rawlins1,079100%D +4.6D +3.9
Cheyenne1,075100%R +0.2R +2.7
Kearny1,033100%D +8.2D +10.6
Edwards1,022100%D +4.9D +7.8
Elk1,022100%D +4.9D +6.3
Graham1,010100%D +0.8D +5.2
Haskell993100%D +9.4D +11.7
Gove959100%D +3.6D +5.4
Kiowa880100%D +3.0D +8.1
Morton757100%D +5.0D +2.1
Clark749100%D +6.9R +2.6
Hodgeman731100%D +1.0D +0.4
Wichita693100%D +6.8D +6.5
Lane674100%D +0.2R +0.2
Comanche631100%D +4.2D +7.3
Wallace603100%D +1.0D +1.2
Hamilton573100%D +8.3D +8.7
Stanton52799%D +6.4D +14.7
Greeley443100%D +4.5D +3.7