Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Tennessee · U.S. House

Tennessee 4th District

Broderick leads by 280 votes. Not called.

99% counted

Our forecast: Victoria Broderick, 78% chance of winning. Projected finish DesJarlais +0.1. This isn't a race call.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 14 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

CandidateVotesShare
Victoria Broderick D 95,585 48.9%
Scott DesJarlais R 95,305 48.7%
Jacob Anders I 2,833 1.4%
Clay Faircloth I 1,853 0.9%
Total195,576

47 of 63 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 6:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Rutherford 82,568 D +0.4 R +23.0 D +23.5 100%
Davidson 49,957 D +52.8 D +26.6 D +26.2 100%
Coffee 15,344 R +37.4 R +55.8 D +18.4 100%
Franklin 11,868 R +40.3 R +53.7 D +13.4 96%
Warren 9,652 R +34.7 R +56.7 D +22.0 100%
Marion 8,498 R +40.0 R +56.2 D +16.1 100%
Sequatchie 4,482 R +55.0 R +66.9 D +11.9 96%
Cannon 3,979 R +49.2 R +66.8 D +17.6 97%
Bledsoe 3,808 R +56.2 R +71.0 D +14.8 100%
Grundy 3,391 R +51.7 R +69.8 D +18.1 93%
Van Buren 2,029 R +52.4 R +67.7 D +15.2 99%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
Count revised by -3,476 votes195,576D +0.1
+1,139 votes199,052R +0.3
+9,732 votes197,913Even
+3,383 votes188,181D +0.2
+2,451 votes184,798D +1.1
+10,290 votes182,347D +1.8
+72,836 votes172,057R +0.1
+2,668 votes99,221R +1.0
+7,267 votes96,553D +0.7
+6,766 votes89,286D +3.6
+32,901 votes82,520D +0.1
+3,023 votes49,619R +39.8