Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Alaska · U.S. Senate

Alaska Senate

Peltola leads by 637 votes. Not called.

70% counted

Our forecast: Mary Peltola, 81% chance of winning. Projected finish Sullivan +0.6. This isn't a race call.

CandidateVotesShare
Mary Peltola D 102,962 48.2%
Dan Sullivan R 102,325 47.9%
Gerald Heikes R 4,846 2.3%
Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. I 3,600 1.7%
Total213,733

399 of 402 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 11:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
State House District 6 7,858 R +5.6 R +16.8 D +11.3 70%
State House District 9 7,562 D +1.8 D +2.3 R +0.6 64%
State House District 25 7,505 R +24.6 R +37.0 D +12.4 78%
State House District 8 7,030 R +46.8 R +51.1 D +4.2 70%
State House District 35 6,916 D +18.1 D +5.3 D +12.9 77%
State House District 23 6,821 R +9.9 R +19.4 D +9.5 71%
State House District 24 6,677 R +25.0 R +33.4 D +8.5 73%
State House District 29 6,651 R +38.4 R +46.5 D +8.1 71%
State House District 26 6,595 R +45.3 R +56.0 D +10.7 80%
State House District 34 6,552 R +7.2 R +21.6 D +14.4 74%
State House District 7 6,468 R +33.3 R +45.9 D +12.6 76%
State House District 11 6,272 R +3.5 R +2.4 R +1.0 67%
State House District 16 6,259 D +21.6 D +15.3 D +6.3 68%
State House District 3 6,221 D +25.9 D +15.4 D +10.5 62%
State House District 28 6,208 R +39.7 R +50.4 D +10.7 76%
State House District 21 6,174 D +16.9 D +8.4 D +8.6 74%
State House District 15 6,169 D +3.4 R +2.6 D +5.9 70%
State House District 36 5,960 R +3.8 R +22.8 D +19.1 66%
State House District 33 5,941 R +42.1 R +52.9 D +10.8 83%
State House District 10 5,801 D +3.9 R +3.4 D +7.3 71%
State House District 27 5,750 R +45.2 R +57.9 D +12.7 75%
State House District 4 5,745 D +53.6 D +39.2 D +14.4 65%
State House District 30 5,528 R +43.6 R +46.1 D +2.4 68%
State House District 12 5,263 D +8.6 D +1.3 D +7.2 68%
State House District 17 5,018 D +47.4 D +34.9 D +12.4 68%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+553 votes213,733R +2.0
+129 votes213,180R +2.0
+5,412 votes213,051R +2.1
+2,902 votes207,639R +3.1
+5,034 votes204,737R +3.2
+36,009 votes199,703R +3.4
+98,582 votes163,694R +1.8
+65,112 votes65,112D +10.2