Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Mississippi · U.S. Senate

Mississippi Senate

Colom leads by 1,964 votes. Not called.

99% counted

Our forecast: Scott Colom, 86% chance of winning. Projected finish Even. This isn't a race call.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 10 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

CandidateVotesShare
Scott Colom D 467,049 49.1%
Cindy Hyde-Smith R 465,085 48.8%
Ty Pinkins I 20,010 2.1%
Total952,144

0 of 49 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 3:11 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 6:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Hinds 77,465 D +61.6 D +46.7 D +14.8 100%
Harrison 58,850 R +3.8 R +29.2 D +25.4 100%
DeSoto 54,184 D +6.3 R +24.7 D +31.0 100%
Rankin 51,331 R +26.2 R +47.6 D +21.4 100%
Madison 45,766 D +0.8 R +17.5 D +18.3 100%
Jackson 35,432 R +15.1 R +40.3 D +25.3 91%
Lee 24,993 R +17.9 R +39.3 D +21.3 100%
Forrest 22,433 D +10.6 R +18.2 D +28.8 100%
Lauderdale 21,874 R +1.7 R +21.4 D +19.7 100%
Lowndes 21,418 D +16.3 R +8.2 D +24.5 100%
Lamar 21,020 R +26.6 R +49.4 D +22.8 100%
Jones 20,308 R +24.4 R +47.2 D +22.8 100%
Lafayette 17,223 D +1.2 R +22.1 D +23.3 100%
Hancock 16,732 R +43.2 R +59.3 D +16.1 100%
Pearl River 16,526 R +49.5 R +67.4 D +17.9 100%
Oktibbeha 15,204 D +21.4 R +0.3 D +21.7 100%
Warren 14,643 D +13.8 R +4.0 D +17.8 100%
Monroe 12,765 R +13.6 R +36.2 D +22.6 100%
Pike 12,680 D +17.5 R +3.3 D +20.8 100%
Lincoln 12,391 R +30.4 R +45.7 D +15.3 100%
Marshall 11,534 D +16.3 R +7.3 D +23.6 100%
Panola 11,364 D +12.6 R +15.0 D +27.6 100%
Washington 11,191 D +57.0 D +35.4 D +21.7 100%
Alcorn 11,164 R +53.7 R +68.9 D +15.2 100%
Pontotoc 10,206 R +48.3 R +68.3 D +19.9 100%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+41 votes952,144D +0.2
+63 votes952,103D +0.2
+207 votes952,040D +0.2
+85 votes951,833D +0.2
+67 votes951,748D +0.2
+7 votes951,681D +0.2
+70 votes951,674D +0.2
+213 votes951,604D +0.2
+285 votes951,391D +0.2
+124 votes951,106D +0.2
+59 votes950,982D +0.2
+63 votes950,923D +0.2