Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Arizona · U.S. House

Arizona 9th District

Paul Gosar wins. Called.

77% counted
CandidateVotesShare
Paul Gosar R won 143,065 57.7%
Danielle Sterbinsky D 105,016 42.3%
Total248,081

170 of 170 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 4:09 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 7:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Maricopa 156,787 D +1.1 R +18.6 D +19.6 75%
Mohave 69,168 R +48.5 R +56.4 D +7.9 80%
Yuma 16,929 R +25.1 R +39.8 D +14.7 75%
La Paz 5,197 R +37.0 R +44.5 D +7.5 89%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+689 votes248,081R +15.3
+913 votes247,392R +15.3
+2,235 votes246,479R +15.2
+4,309 votes244,244R +15.4
+28,377 votes239,935R +15.6
+1,002 votes211,558R +16.2
+2,591 votes210,556R +15.9
+1,156 votes207,965R +15.6
+4,646 votes206,809R +15.5
+6,678 votes202,163R +14.2
+4,979 votes195,485R +12.5
+1,270 votes190,506R +13.0