Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Florida · U.S. House

Florida 2nd District

Austin Rogers wins. Called.

99% counted
CandidateVotesShare
Austin Rogers R won 160,968 52.1%
Amanda Green D 147,791 47.9%
Total308,759

253 of 296 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 6:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Leon 123,919 D +36.0 D +22.0 D +14.0 100%
Bay 69,885 R +36.6 R +47.9 D +11.3 100%
Gadsden 17,584 D +41.2 D +30.9 D +10.3 100%
Jackson 15,642 R +35.9 R +46.4 D +10.5 100%
Wakulla 15,035 R +29.5 R +44.7 D +15.2 100%
Walton 11,979 R +47.0 R +53.6 D +6.7 100%
Washington 9,012 R +56.4 R +65.8 D +9.4 100%
Madison 6,956 R +18.7 R +29.0 D +10.3 100%
Taylor 6,918 R +48.9 R +60.0 D +11.0 100%
Jefferson 6,918 R +9.7 R +18.7 D +9.0 100%
Gulf 6,686 R +49.1 R +54.5 D +5.3 100%
Holmes 6,173 R +73.6 R +80.6 D +6.9 100%
Franklin 5,030 R +32.0 R +44.2 D +12.1 100%
Calhoun 4,263 R +56.9 R +68.0 D +11.1 100%
Liberty 2,642 R +53.9 R +67.3 D +13.4 100%
Lafayette 117 R +70.9 R +81.8 D +10.9 100%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+1,151 votes308,759R +4.3
+624 votes307,608R +4.5
+344 votes306,984R +4.6
+348 votes306,640R +4.6
+3,568 votes306,292R +4.5
+1,705 votes302,724R +3.6
Austin Rogers wins——
+7,176 votes301,019R +3.9
+527 votes293,843R +3.4
Count revised by -1,385 votes293,316R +3.3
+4,503 votes294,701R +3.3
+5,833 votes290,198R +2.8