Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

New York · U.S. House

New York 24th District

Claudia Tenney wins. Called.

95% counted
CandidateVotesShare
Claudia Tenney R won 167,490 60.3%
Alissa Ellman D 110,263 39.7%
Total277,753

78 of 118 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 7:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Ontario 38,278 D +0.2 R +2.5 D +2.8 97%
Oswego 35,109 R +14.5 R +24.2 D +9.7 83%
Niagara 34,127 R +20.9 R +23.4 D +2.5 97%
Wayne 32,857 R +21.0 R +23.3 D +2.3 97%
Jefferson 25,146 R +25.1 R +22.7 R +2.4 97%
Livingston 24,483 R +19.4 R +21.4 D +2.0 97%
Genesee 21,404 R +34.1 R +34.0 R +0.1 97%
Wyoming 14,337 R +47.4 R +48.2 D +0.8 89%
Orleans 13,371 R +39.6 R +40.5 D +0.9 97%
Seneca 12,053 R +9.8 R +11.8 D +2.0 97%
Cayuga 9,003 R +27.7 R +30.1 D +2.4 97%
Yates 8,198 R +14.7 R +16.2 D +1.5 97%
Steuben 5,622 R +45.7 R +45.2 R +0.6 97%
Schuyler 3,765 R +7.9 R +12.6 D +4.7 97%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+5,990 votes277,753R +20.6
+2,489 votes271,763R +19.7
+5,586 votes269,274R +19.6
+2,431 votes263,688R +19.2
+13,371 votes261,257R +18.9
+24,893 votes247,886R +17.8
+21,404 votes222,993R +16.3
+8,347 votes201,589R +14.4
+4,118 votes193,242R +13.4
Claudia Tenney wins——
+35,109 votes189,124R +13.2
+19,084 votes154,015R +12.9