Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Missouri · U.S. House

Missouri 4th District

Mark Alford wins. Called.

99% counted
CandidateVotesShare
Mark Alford R won 154,236 61.5%
Jordan Herrera D 89,182 35.6%
Thomas Holbrook L 7,289 2.9%
Total250,707

351 of 351 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 6:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Cass 41,548 R +14.7 R +32.5 D +17.9 100%
Jackson County 29,563 R +3.6 R +22.8 D +19.2 100%
Boone 26,133 D +25.2 D +3.4 D +21.8 100%
Johnson 15,907 R +24.0 R +40.2 D +16.2 100%
Camden 12,406 R +46.9 R +56.6 D +9.8 100%
Pettis 11,829 R +33.4 R +49.5 D +16.0 100%
Lafayette 11,631 R +34.7 R +49.5 D +14.8 100%
Polk 10,765 R +51.8 R +62.3 D +10.5 100%
Laclede 10,690 R +58.6 R +67.4 D +8.8 100%
Pulaski 9,165 R +35.9 R +50.9 D +15.0 100%
Webster 7,811 R +48.8 R +61.0 D +12.2 100%
Henry 7,211 R +42.0 R +53.1 D +11.1 100%
Benton 7,019 R +49.1 R +59.5 D +10.4 100%
Morgan 6,250 R +50.4 R +60.3 D +9.9 100%
Saline 5,908 R +20.4 R +40.9 D +20.5 100%
Vernon 5,385 R +45.6 R +60.1 D +14.4 100%
Bates 5,324 R +46.6 R +62.2 D +15.6 100%
Dallas 5,167 R +54.6 R +65.2 D +10.6 100%
Cedar 4,461 R +60.5 R +70.2 D +9.7 100%
Barton 3,736 R +67.8 R +72.5 D +4.8 100%
Hickory 3,427 R +55.3 R +61.5 D +6.3 100%
Howard 3,354 R +27.8 R +45.0 D +17.2 100%
St. Clair 3,298 R +51.9 R +61.1 D +9.2 100%
Dade 2,719 R +59.5 R +67.7 D +8.2 100%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+570 votes250,707R +26.7
+11,863 votes250,137R +26.7
+8,492 votes238,274R +29.4
+1,482 votes229,782R +30.5
+7,811 votes228,300R +30.6
+12,416 votes220,489R +30.0
+3,298 votes208,073R +32.2
+2,240 votes204,775R +31.9
+4,815 votes202,535R +32.3
+5,908 votes197,720R +32.0
+6,775 votes191,812R +32.3
+10,376 votes185,037R +33.4