Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

North Carolina · U.S. House

North Carolina 7th District

Rouzer leads by 2,425 votes. Not called.

96% counted

Our forecast: David Rouzer, >99% chance of winning. Projected finish Rouzer +1.4. This isn't a race call.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 27 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

CandidateVotesShare
David Rouzer R 159,985 49.9%
Kimberly Hardy D 157,560 49.1%
Maad Abu-Ghazalah L 3,135 1.0%
Total320,680

191 of 191 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 5:30 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
New Hanover 102,600 D +12.3 D +0.6 D +11.7 98%
Brunswick 86,752 R +14.5 R +25.0 D +10.6 98%
Cumberland 62,688 D +19.0 D +1.2 D +17.8 98%
Pender 25,648 R +20.2 R +35.3 D +15.0 98%
Columbus 16,967 R +21.8 R +34.1 D +12.3 78%
Bladen 11,983 R +11.8 R +21.9 D +10.0 89%
Robeson 9,805 R +18.2 R +38.3 D +20.1 98%
Sampson 4,237 R +51.3 R +62.9 D +11.7 89%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+528 votes320,680R +0.8
+1,049 votes320,152R +0.7
+1,752 votes319,103R +0.6
+1,374 votes317,351R +0.4
+4,530 votes315,977R +0.6
+1,894 votes311,447R +0.7
+707 votes309,553R +0.4
+1,520 votes308,846R +0.5
+4,908 votes307,326R +0.3
+81 votes302,418R +0.2
+5,952 votes302,337R +0.2
+10,776 votes296,385D +0.2