New Jersey 4th District

Chris Smith wins. Called.

87% counted

Candidate	Votes	Share
Chris Smith R won	156,223	59.1%
Rachel Peace D	108,206	40.9%
Total	264,429

528 of 530 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 6:00 PM.

By county

Place	Votes	Margin	2024 president	Shift	Counted
Ocean	169,160	R +25.6	R +37.9	D +12.3	84%
Monmouth	95,269	R +4.9	R +17.3	D +12.4	93%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

Time	Update	Total votes	Margin
Nov 5, 8:34 AM	+685 votes	264,429	R +18.2
Nov 5, 7:54 AM	+2,232 votes	263,744	R +18.3
Nov 3, 9:17 PM	+1,252 votes	261,512	R +18.2
Nov 3, 8:49 PM	+582 votes	260,260	R +18.4
Nov 3, 8:23 PM	+138 votes	259,678	R +18.3
Nov 3, 8:13 PM	+581 votes	259,540	R +18.3
Nov 3, 8:02 PM	+812 votes	258,959	R +18.2
Nov 3, 7:50 PM	+2,504 votes	258,147	R +18.0
Nov 3, 7:38 PM	+3,532 votes	255,643	R +17.7
Nov 3, 7:37 PM	+7,615 votes	252,111	R +18.1
Nov 3, 7:31 PM	+6,172 votes	244,496	R +17.3
Nov 3, 7:29 PM	+8,884 votes	238,324	R +16.5

Forecast

Called.

Lead now: Smith +18.2
Votes left: About 38,900
Those votes should favor: Smith +32.1
Projected finish: Smith +19.9
80% range: Smith +22.3 to Smith +17.6
To catch up: Peace needs more votes than remain

Prediction markets

Market	Democrat wins	Traded
Kalshi	<1%	187K contracts
Polymarket	<1%	$42K

Chance a Democrat wins since Nov 3, 5:55 PM. Polymarket <1% · Kalshi <1%

Against past results

This year so far	R +18.2
2024 House	R +36.1
2022 House	R +36.2
2024 President, statewide	D +6.0
Shift from 2024 president same places	D +12.3
Published pre-election estimate	R +28.0

Also in New Jersey

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