Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Races still being counted

53 races aren't called yet: 44 for the House, 4 for the Senate, 5 for governor. Democrats lead in 22, Republicans in 29, and 2 go to a runoff.

Recounts

A recount can follow a race call. These are the recounts the states themselves list; each state's recount rule is under its name below or on its page.

Florida: 6 uncalled races

Florida results
RaceLeadingLead (pts) CountedForecastNow held by
FL-27 Salazar R 1,090 (0.4) 99% Salazar >99% R
FL-07 Elijah R 1,631 (0.5) 99% Elijah >99% R
FL-09 Soto D 1,506 (0.5) 99% Soto >99% D
FL-26 Diaz-Balart R 1,704 (0.7) 99% Diaz-Balart >99% R
FL-13 Luna R 2,491 (0.8) 99% Luna >99% R
FL Governor Donalds R 106,240 (1.3) 99% Donalds >99% R

Votes left to count, roughly: FL-27 about 2,500; FL-07 about 3,300; FL-09 about 2,900; FL-26 about 2,300; FL-13 about 3,200; FL Governor about 84,000. These come from how much of each race's expected vote is counted, so they're estimates, and late ballots and cured signatures can add to them.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 13 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

What happens next in Florida

Recounts in Florida

North Carolina: 5 uncalled races

North Carolina results
RaceLeadingLead (pts) CountedForecastNow held by
NC-03 Smith D 258 (0.1) 99% Smith >99% flip R
NC-05 Hubbard D 331 (0.1) 99% Hubbard 67% flip R
NC-07 Rouzer R 2,311 (0.7) 99% Rouzer 99% R
NC-10 Harrigan R 2,509 (0.8) 99% Harrigan >99% R
NC-08 Harris R 5,024 (1.7) 99% Harris >99% R

Votes left to count, roughly: NC-03 about 2,400; NC-05 about 2,900; NC-07 about 3,300; NC-10 about 3,000; NC-08 about 3,000. These come from how much of each race's expected vote is counted, so they're estimates, and late ballots and cured signatures can add to them.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 27 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

What happens next in North Carolina

Recounts in North Carolina

Pennsylvania: 4 uncalled races

Pennsylvania results
RaceLeadingLead (pts) CountedForecastNow held by
PA-01 Harvie D 20,228 (5.6) 91% Harvie >99% flip R
PA-16 Kelly R 22,003 (7.7) 84% Kelly >99% R
PA-08 Cognetti D 25,321 (9.0) 91% Cognetti >99% flip R
PA-14 Reschenthaler R 41,329 (14.9) 80% Reschenthaler >99% R

Votes left to count, roughly: PA-01 about 35,000; PA-16 about 55,000; PA-08 about 28,000; PA-14 about 69,000. These come from how much of each race's expected vote is counted, so they're estimates, and late ballots and cured signatures can add to them.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 31 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

What happens next in Pennsylvania

Alaska: 3 uncalled races

Alaska results
RaceLeadingLead (pts) CountedForecastNow held by
AK Senate Peltola D 5,800 (2.3) 84% Peltola 99% flip R
AK-AL Begich R 18,781 (7.4) 85% Begich 98% R
AK Governor Kreiss-Tomkins D 53,913 (21.4) 83% Kreiss-Tomkins >99% flip R

Votes left to count, roughly: AK Senate about 49,000; AK-AL about 45,000; AK Governor about 52,000. These come from how much of each race's expected vote is counted, so they're estimates, and late ballots and cured signatures can add to them.

What happens next in Alaska

Louisiana: 3 uncalled races

Louisiana results
RaceLeadingLead (pts) CountedForecastNow held by
LA Senate Letlow R 25,802 (1.8) 99% Letlow >99% R
LA-05 Runoff: Moore vs. Firment — 99% Republican 95% R
LA-06 Runoff: Banks vs. Miguez — 99% Republican 94% flip D

Votes left to count, roughly: LA Senate about 15,000; LA-05 about 2,300; LA-06 about 2,600. These come from how much of each race's expected vote is counted, so they're estimates, and late ballots and cured signatures can add to them.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 11 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

What happens next in Louisiana

Recounts in Louisiana

New York: 3 uncalled races

New York results
RaceLeadingLead (pts) CountedForecastNow held by
NY-21 Constantino R 4,857 (1.8) 97% Constantino >99% R
NY-01 LaLota R 6,677 (2.2) 93% LaLota >99% R
NY-02 Garbarino R 7,903 (3.2) 85% Garbarino >99% R

Votes left to count, roughly: NY-21 about 8,600; NY-01 about 22,000; NY-02 about 44,000. These come from how much of each race's expected vote is counted, so they're estimates, and late ballots and cured signatures can add to them.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 17 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

What happens next in New York

Recounts in New York

Oregon: 3 uncalled races

Oregon results
RaceLeadingLead (pts) CountedForecastNow held by
OR Governor Kotek D 180,317 (9.5) 89% Kotek >99% D
OR-04 Hoyle D 36,338 (10.9) 90% Hoyle >99% D
OR-06 Salinas D 44,949 (16.1) 86% Salinas >99% D

Votes left to count, roughly: OR Governor about 235,000; OR-04 about 37,000; OR-06 about 45,000. These come from how much of each race's expected vote is counted, so they're estimates, and late ballots and cured signatures can add to them.

What happens next in Oregon

Recounts in Oregon

Arizona: 2 uncalled races

Arizona results
RaceLeadingLead (pts) CountedForecastNow held by
AZ-02 Crane R 3,446 (1.0) 99% Crane >99% R
AZ-08 Hamadeh R 6,820 (2.4) 96% Hamadeh >99% R

Votes left to count, roughly: AZ-02 about 3,300; AZ-08 about 12,000. These come from how much of each race's expected vote is counted, so they're estimates, and late ballots and cured signatures can add to them.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 21 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

What happens next in Arizona

Recounts in Arizona

Colorado: 2 uncalled races

Colorado results
RaceLeadingLead (pts) CountedForecastNow held by
CO-04 Laubacher D 3,525 (0.9) 99% Laubacher >99% flip R
CO-03 Hurd R 5,985 (1.8) 99% Hurd >99% R

Votes left to count, roughly: CO-04 about 3,900; CO-03 about 3,400. These come from how much of each race's expected vote is counted, so they're estimates, and late ballots and cured signatures can add to them.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 10 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

What happens next in Colorado

Recounts in Colorado

Maine: 2 uncalled races

Maine results
RaceLeadingLead (pts) CountedForecastNow held by
ME-02 LePage R 5,543 (1.6) 97% LePage >99% flip D
ME Senate Jackson D 43,501 (6.1) 95% Jackson >99% flip R

Votes left to count, roughly: ME-02 about 11,000; ME Senate about 38,000. These come from how much of each race's expected vote is counted, so they're estimates, and late ballots and cured signatures can add to them.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 6 points more Democratic than that report, in the same places. An early Republican lead here can shrink.

What happens next in Maine

Recounts in Maine

South Carolina: 2 uncalled races

South Carolina results
RaceLeadingLead (pts) CountedForecastNow held by
SC-02 Wilson R 2,926 (1.0) 99% Wilson >99% R
SC-01 Lacore D 3,352 (1.0) 99% Lacore >99% flip R

Votes left to count, roughly: SC-02 about 3,000; SC-01 about 3,300. These come from how much of each race's expected vote is counted, so they're estimates, and late ballots and cured signatures can add to them.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 25 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

What happens next in South Carolina

Recounts in South Carolina

Tennessee: 2 uncalled races

Tennessee results
RaceLeadingLead (pts) CountedForecastNow held by
TN-04 Broderick D 277 (0.1) 99% Broderick 86% flip R
TN-09 Taylor R 2,539 (1.1) 99% Taylor >99% flip D

Votes left to count, roughly: TN-04 about 2,000; TN-09 about 2,300. These come from how much of each race's expected vote is counted, so they're estimates, and late ballots and cured signatures can add to them.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 14 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

What happens next in Tennessee

Texas: 2 uncalled races

Texas results
RaceLeadingLead (pts) CountedForecastNow held by
TX-27 Cloud R 3,925 (1.4) 98% Cloud >99% R
TX-02 Toth R 5,581 (2.0) 99% Toth >99% R

Votes left to count, roughly: TX-27 about 5,800; TX-02 about 2,900. These come from how much of each race's expected vote is counted, so they're estimates, and late ballots and cured signatures can add to them.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 10 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

What happens next in Texas

Recounts in Texas

Virginia: 2 uncalled races

Virginia results
RaceLeadingLead (pts) CountedForecastNow held by
VA-05 McGuire R 5,982 (1.6) 97% McGuire >99% R
VA-01 Taylor D 11,846 (2.9) 97% Taylor >99% flip R

Votes left to count, roughly: VA-05 about 11,000; VA-01 about 13,000. These come from how much of each race's expected vote is counted, so they're estimates, and late ballots and cured signatures can add to them.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 10 points more Democratic than that report, in the same places. An early Republican lead here can shrink.

What happens next in Virginia

Recounts in Virginia

Arkansas: 1 uncalled race

Arkansas results
RaceLeadingLead (pts) CountedForecastNow held by
AR-02 Hill R 4,356 (1.7) 99% Hill >99% R

Votes left to count, roughly: AR-02 about 2,500. These come from how much of each race's expected vote is counted, so they're estimates, and late ballots and cured signatures can add to them.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 19 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

What happens next in Arkansas

Recounts in Arkansas

California: 1 uncalled race

California results
RaceLeadingLead (pts) CountedForecastNow held by
CA-23 Obernolte R 3,278 (1.5) 97% Obernolte >99% R

Votes left to count, roughly: CA-23 about 6,600. These come from how much of each race's expected vote is counted, so they're estimates, and late ballots and cured signatures can add to them.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 12 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

What happens next in California

Recounts in California

Kansas: 1 uncalled race

Kansas results
RaceLeadingLead (pts) CountedForecastNow held by
KS Governor Holscher D 7,343 (0.7) 99% Holscher >99% D

Votes left to count, roughly: KS Governor about 11,000. These come from how much of each race's expected vote is counted, so they're estimates, and late ballots and cured signatures can add to them.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 26 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

What happens next in Kansas

Recounts in Kansas

Massachusetts: 1 uncalled race

Massachusetts results
RaceLeadingLead (pts) CountedForecastNow held by
MA-03 Trahan D 76,844 (40.4) 70% Trahan >99% D

Votes left to count, roughly: MA-03 about 82,000. These come from how much of each race's expected vote is counted, so they're estimates, and late ballots and cured signatures can add to them.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 9 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

What happens next in Massachusetts

Recounts in Massachusetts

Michigan: 1 uncalled race

Michigan results
RaceLeadingLead (pts) CountedForecastNow held by
MI-04 McCann D 6,711 (1.8) 99% McCann >99% flip R

Votes left to count, roughly: MI-04 about 3,800. These come from how much of each race's expected vote is counted, so they're estimates, and late ballots and cured signatures can add to them.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 6 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

What happens next in Michigan

Recounts in Michigan

Minnesota: 1 uncalled race

Minnesota results
RaceLeadingLead (pts) CountedForecastNow held by
MN-01 Johnson D 321 (0.1) 99% Johnson 90% flip R

Votes left to count, roughly: MN-01 about 3,300. These come from how much of each race's expected vote is counted, so they're estimates, and late ballots and cured signatures can add to them.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 11 points more Democratic than that report, in the same places. An early Republican lead here can shrink.

What happens next in Minnesota

Recounts in Minnesota

Mississippi: 1 uncalled race

Mississippi results
RaceLeadingLead (pts) CountedForecastNow held by
MS Senate Colom D 5,772 (0.6) 99% Colom >99% flip R

Votes left to count, roughly: MS Senate about 9,800. These come from how much of each race's expected vote is counted, so they're estimates, and late ballots and cured signatures can add to them.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 10 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

What happens next in Mississippi

Nevada: 1 uncalled race

Nevada results
RaceLeadingLead (pts) CountedForecastNow held by
NV-02 Benitez-Thompson D 19,251 (6.0) 96% Benitez-Thompson >99% flip R

Votes left to count, roughly: NV-02 about 13,000. These come from how much of each race's expected vote is counted, so they're estimates, and late ballots and cured signatures can add to them.

What happens next in Nevada

Recounts in Nevada

New Hampshire: 1 uncalled race

New Hampshire results
RaceLeadingLead (pts) CountedForecastNow held by
NH Governor Ayotte R 27,900 (4.4) 97% Ayotte >99% R

Votes left to count, roughly: NH Governor about 20,000. These come from how much of each race's expected vote is counted, so they're estimates, and late ballots and cured signatures can add to them.

What happens next in New Hampshire

Recounts in New Hampshire

Ohio: 1 uncalled race

Ohio results
RaceLeadingLead (pts) CountedForecastNow held by
OH-10 Knickerbocker D 4,938 (1.6) 99% Knickerbocker >99% flip R

Votes left to count, roughly: OH-10 about 3,100. These come from how much of each race's expected vote is counted, so they're estimates, and late ballots and cured signatures can add to them.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 26 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

What happens next in Ohio

Recounts in Ohio

Utah: 1 uncalled race

Utah results
RaceLeadingLead (pts) CountedForecastNow held by
UT-02 Moore R 18,848 (7.4) 92% Moore >99% R

Votes left to count, roughly: UT-02 about 22,000. These come from how much of each race's expected vote is counted, so they're estimates, and late ballots and cured signatures can add to them.

What happens next in Utah

Washington: 1 uncalled race

Washington results
RaceLeadingLead (pts) CountedForecastNow held by
WA-05 Baumgartner R 13,898 (4.4) 92% Baumgartner >99% R

Votes left to count, roughly: WA-05 about 27,000. These come from how much of each race's expected vote is counted, so they're estimates, and late ballots and cured signatures can add to them.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 6 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

What happens next in Washington

Recounts in Washington

How races get called

We make our own calls, and only when a result is certain: the sources we read must agree on who leads, and the lead must be safe from the votes still to count or final in the state's official results. So a race can stay on this list after others have called it. Our forecast is an estimate of who's likely to win, not a call. Results are unofficial until each state certifies them, and the deadlines and recount rules above link to each state's own law or election office.