Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

States

Ohio

All races decided, 5 changed party.

How the count runs here

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 26 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

Stats

Counties vs. 2024Counties vs. 2022The spread

Ohio counties vs. 2024

How far has each county moved since the 2024 president?

R +60 R +40 R +20 Even D +20 D +40 D +60 R +60 R +40 R +20 Even D +20 D +40 D +60 House margin this year 2024 president margin R for president, D here: 5 D for both: 7 R for both: 76 D for president, R here: 0

Democrat aheadRepublican aheadNo changeThe patternStill under 90% counted

Blue squares are good for Democrats and red for Republicans. The darker squares are counties voting differently for House than for president. Above the black line, a county moved toward Democrats.

88 moved toward Democrats, 0 toward Republicans. The middle shift is D +12.0.

Ohio counties vs. 2022

How far has each county moved since the 2022 House vote?

R +80 R +60 R +40 R +20 Even D +20 D +40 D +60 D +80 R +80 R +60 R +40 R +20 Even D +20 D +40 D +60 D +80 House margin this year 2022 House vote margin Sandusky Williams Ottawa Fulton Lucas Was R, now D: 5 D both times: 7 R both times: 76 Was D, now R: 0

Democrat aheadRepublican aheadNo changeThe patternStill under 90% countedFar from the pattern

Blue squares are good for Democrats and red for Republicans. The darker squares are counties that changed sides. Above the black line, a county moved toward Democrats.

81 moved toward Democrats, 7 toward Republicans. The middle shift is D +13.8.

9 far from the pattern
  • Sandusky: 28 points toward Republicans of the pattern, 100% counted
  • Williams: 24 points toward Republicans of the pattern, 100% counted
  • Ottawa: 23 points toward Republicans of the pattern, 100% counted
  • Fulton: 23 points toward Republicans of the pattern, 100% counted
  • Lucas: 20 points toward Republicans of the pattern, 96% counted
  • Erie: 19 points toward Republicans of the pattern, 100% counted
  • Defiance: 19 points toward Republicans of the pattern, 100% counted
  • Montgomery: 14 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 100% counted

Being far from the pattern is a reason to look, not a finding. Usual causes are a popular or weak candidate, an unopposed race last time, or a batch of ballots still to come.

How Ohio's counties moved

Did the state move together, or are some counties far from the rest?

R +30 R +20 R +10 Even D +10 D +20 D +30 Change in margin Since 2024: 88 counties, middle D +12.0 Since 2022: 88 counties, middle D +13.8 Toward Republicans Toward Democrats

Toward DemocratsToward RepublicansMiddle

Right of Even, in blue, moved toward Democrats, which is good for them. Left of it, in red, moved toward Republicans. Bars far from the main hump stand apart from the rest.

9 far from the pattern
  • Sandusky: R +12.8 since 2022, 27 points from the middle
  • Williams: R +9.1 since 2022, 23 points from the middle
  • Fulton: R +7.6 since 2022, 21 points from the middle
  • Ottawa: R +7.5 since 2022, 21 points from the middle
  • Defiance: R +4.0 since 2022, 18 points from the middle
  • Erie: R +3.1 since 2022, 17 points from the middle
  • Lucas: R +2.8 since 2022, 17 points from the middle
  • Montgomery: D +28.6 since 2022, 15 points from the middle

Being far from the pattern is a reason to look, not a finding. Usual causes are a popular or weak candidate, an unopposed race last time, or a batch of ballots still to come.

Each race against past elections

RaceSince 2024Since 2022
U.S. Senate (special)D +16.4D +11.2
GovernorD +19.5D +33.3

Statewide

U.S. Senate (special)

Sherrod Brown won
50.0%2,301,042
Jon Husted
45.2%2,077,750
William Redpath
2.8%128,272
98% counted

Governor

Amy Acton won
52.3%2,404,179
Vivek Ramaswamy
44.4%2,039,731
Don Kissick
3.3%151,874
98% counted

Congress

District 1

Greg Landsman won
54.4%176,453
Eric Conroy
42.9%139,343
Nathan Weise
2.7%8,675
99% counted

District 2

David Taylor won
64.2%175,411
Jen Mazzuckelli
35.8%97,638
99% counted

District 3

Joyce Beatty won
77.2%231,925
Cleophus Dulaney
22.8%68,407
99% counted

District 4

Jim Jordan won
64.5%197,085
Joshua Kolasinski
31.3%95,497
Tracey Tackett
4.3%13,005
98% counted

District 5

Bob Latta won
54.3%163,382
Brian Shaver
42.6%128,142
Michael Veloff
3.2%9,577
99% counted

District 6

Michael Rulli won
60.4%163,675
Elizabeth Kirtley
39.6%107,310
98% counted

District 7

Brian Poindexter won
54.9%180,614
Max Miller
45.1%148,177
99% counted

District 8

Warren Davidson won
52.1%168,689
Vanessa Enoch
47.9%154,828
99% counted

District 9

Marcy Kaptur won
52.7%159,306
Derek Merrin
47.3%142,830
98% counted

District 10

Kristina Knickerbocker won
49.3%149,024
Michael Turner
47.7%144,086
Thomas McMasters
2.9%8,906
98% counted

District 11

Shontel Brown won
83.5%219,971
Mike Kirchner
16.5%43,373
87% counted

District 12

Troy Balderson won
59.4%191,926
Jerrad Christian
40.6%131,211
99% counted

District 13

Emilia Sykes won
60.0%190,593
Carey Coleman
38.4%122,078
Sandeep Dixit
1.6%5,104
99% counted

District 14

David Joyce won
55.0%179,467
Maria Jukic
45.0%146,651
99% counted

District 15

Don Leonard won
51.9%149,287
Mike Carey
45.3%130,225
Brennan Barrington
2.8%8,135
99% counted

Counties

CountyVotesCountedSince 2024Since 2022
Franklin497,076100%D +15.0D +16.5
Cuyahoga463,51092%D +15.9D +17.6
Hamilton339,292100%D +11.9D +15.5
Summit223,760100%D +18.7D +13.2
Montgomery202,359100%D +9.2D +28.6
Lucas151,98096%D +16.2R +2.8
Butler145,56996%D +13.1D +17.5
Stark143,365100%D +16.4D +13.9
Lorain127,468100%D +13.7D +13.4
Delaware116,05499%D +7.6D +14.3
Warren112,653100%D +14.6D +14.9
Lake104,562100%D +9.6D +19.8
Mahoning88,375100%D +11.3D +13.8
Clermont88,075100%D +11.5D +18.4
Medina81,572100%D +19.9D +20.2
Licking73,807100%D +12.5D +19.8
Trumbull73,587100%D +13.4D +13.0
Greene74,193100%D +7.6D +23.7
Fairfield67,38996%D +12.9D +20.9
Portage65,095100%D +14.4D +16.2
Wood54,386100%D +10.2D +4.5
Geauga45,130100%D +4.9D +14.8
Miami45,336100%D +9.1D +14.9
Clark48,701100%D +4.7D +9.7
Richland43,647100%D +10.9D +12.3
Wayne39,878100%D +14.7D +15.3
Columbiana34,722100%D +10.8D +13.4
Allen35,235100%D +8.5D +8.8
Ashtabula32,808100%D +11.0D +15.6
Erie31,799100%D +17.2R +3.1
Tuscarawas31,439100%D +16.6D +15.7
Union30,961100%D +12.0D +15.7
Muskingum28,894100%D +7.0D +16.8
Hancock28,932100%D +6.2D +17.2
Ross24,397100%D +12.0D +11.3
Knox24,022100%D +9.1D +11.9
Washington22,193100%D +13.6D +16.0
Jefferson21,825100%D +15.5D +15.8
Sandusky22,536100%D +8.5R +12.8
Belmont21,76982%D +16.2D +17.8
Pickaway21,983100%D +13.5D +12.8
Scioto21,188100%D +16.4D +13.3
Darke20,031100%D +6.7D +9.7
Athens19,984100%D +17.7D +14.1
Marion19,975100%D +12.3D +10.6
Ottawa19,154100%D +15.1R +7.5
Ashland19,008100%D +16.9D +18.7
Huron19,545100%D +12.6D +14.3
Auglaize19,24687%D +4.7D +3.9
Shelby18,983100%D +5.8D +7.8
Seneca18,803100%D +11.6D +20.4
Lawrence18,010100%D +16.3D +13.5
Mercer18,001100%D +4.2D +7.3
Fulton17,294100%D +16.3R +7.6
Logan17,831100%D +7.6D +8.4
Madison16,174100%D +12.5D +16.2
Preble15,325100%D +11.1D +13.7
Putnam15,261100%D +9.2D +16.5
Brown14,889100%D +11.5D +13.6
Clinton15,367100%D +12.9D +14.8
Champaign15,545100%D +6.3D +3.5
Defiance14,390100%D +16.2R +4.0
Crawford14,653100%D +10.1D +12.0
Highland14,22192%D +12.2D +14.2
Morrow14,059100%D +8.7D +9.1
Williams13,387100%D +14.2R +9.1
Guernsey12,682100%D +11.1D +14.3
Perry12,427100%D +14.5D +14.9
Coshocton11,745100%D +10.8D +13.6
Henry11,074100%D +16.0D +26.4
Van Wert10,510100%D +9.6D +14.1
Carroll10,169100%D +10.2D +12.4
Jackson9,681100%D +15.0D +10.1
Hocking9,580100%D +13.8D +8.5
Paulding8,847100%D +16.1D +16.4
Adams8,84084%D +11.6D +12.4
Hardin9,098100%D +8.6D +6.1
Fayette9,054100%D +10.2D +14.3
Holmes8,721100%D +8.3D +8.5
Wyandot9,854100%D +9.6D +12.4
Gallia8,622100%D +11.1D +9.8
Pike8,379100%D +15.7D +11.1
Meigs7,392100%D +13.4D +10.9
Harrison4,976100%D +14.6D +15.4
Morgan4,734100%D +11.0D +16.1
Monroe4,677100%D +18.8D +16.6
Noble4,429100%D +11.4D +13.2
Vinton3,857100%D +13.9D +8.1