Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

States

Florida

4 races undecided, about 99% counted.

How the count runs here

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 13 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

Stats

Each race against past elections

RaceSince 2024Since 2022
U.S. Senate (special)D +10.3D +13.7
GovernorD +11.9D +18.2

Statewide

U.S. Senate (special)

Ashley Moody won
50.9%4,207,774
Angie Nixon
48.0%3,968,811
Neil Gillespie
1.1%94,529
99% counted

Governor

Byron Donalds won
50.0%4,132,112
David Jolly
48.7%4,024,180
99% counted

Congress

District 1

Jimmy Patronis won
62.6%181,723
Gay Valimont
35.6%103,429
Tyler Davis
1.8%5,322
99% counted

District 2

Austin Rogers won
52.1%160,968
Amanda Green
47.9%147,791
99% counted

District 3

Kat Cammack won
55.1%165,313
Seth Harp
43.0%128,866
Mike Klein
1.9%5,599
99% counted

District 4

Aaron Bean won
50.2%151,095
LaShonda Holloway
48.1%144,752
Todd Schaefer
1.1%3,191
99% counted

District 5

John Rutherford won
56.4%187,877
Rachel Grage
43.6%145,081
99% counted

District 6

Randy Fine won
58.9%195,252
Eric Yonce
39.9%132,264
Andrew Parrott
1.1%3,725
99% counted

District 7

Ryan Elijah 98% chance
49.7%161,189
Bale Dalton 2% chance
49.2%159,488
Christopher Dennison
1.1%3,480
99% counted

District 8

Mike Haridopolos won
53.2%169,863
Jennifer Jenkins
46.8%149,586
99% counted

District 9

Darren Soto 98% chance
50.3%143,174
Dan Green 2% chance
49.7%141,697
99% counted

District 11

Joe Strada won
52.9%193,518
James Pericola
46.0%168,108
Ralph Groves
1.1%3,955
99% counted

District 12

Gus Bilirakis won
52.7%150,746
Kimberly Overman
45.9%131,309
Branden Scrivener
1.3%3,783
99% counted

District 13

Anna Paulina Luna won
49.5%155,117
Leela Gray
48.7%152,600
Tony D'Arrigo
1.8%5,779
99% counted

District 14

Kathy Castor won
51.2%153,586
Mike Beltran
45.9%137,599
Brian Lambert
2.9%8,730
99% counted

District 15

Laurel Lee won
54.3%163,251
Robert People
45.7%137,390
99% counted

District 16

Sydney Gruters won
51.2%175,512
Kelly Kirschner
47.0%160,942
Mark Davis
1.8%6,275
99% counted

District 17

Greg Steube won
58.5%209,055
Matthew Montavon
40.1%143,570
Michael Quirk
1.4%5,008
99% counted

District 18

Scott Franklin won
50.4%137,590
Curtis Gibson
46.7%127,564
Deva Simmons
3.0%8,110
99% counted

District 19

Jim Schwartzel won
61.1%198,668
Victor Arias
37.6%122,351
Seth Haskin
1.2%3,996
99% counted

District 20

Debbie Wasserman Schultz won
74.4%182,554
Brent Andersen
21.7%53,361
Kedner Maxime
3.9%9,590
99% counted

District 21

Brian Mast won
53.9%183,773
James Martin
44.7%152,430
Alexander Cooke
1.3%4,454
99% counted

District 22

Pia Dandiya won
51.9%153,047
Casey Askar
48.1%141,886
99% counted

District 23

Lois Frankel won
65.6%169,831
Deborah Adeimy
34.4%88,876
99% counted

District 24

Oliver Gilbert won
80.7%164,819
Te Brown
19.3%39,534
99% counted

District 25

Jared Moskowitz won
51.3%143,753
Scott Singer
46.6%130,787
Peter Jassenoff
2.1%5,876
99% counted

District 26

Mario Diaz-Balart 98% chance
49.9%114,547
Nicole Locklin 2% chance
49.1%112,775
Deborah Meidinger Hosey
1.0%2,348
99% counted

District 27

Maria Salazar 94% chance
50.2%124,474
Eliott Rodriguez 6% chance
49.8%123,358
99% counted

District 28

Carlos Gimenez won
52.9%124,978
Phil Ehr
45.6%107,839
Eddy Rojas
1.5%3,443
99% counted

Counties

CountyVotesCountedSince 2024Since 2022
Miami-Dade782,603100%D +17.7D +16.3
Broward652,722100%D +15.8D +13.1
Palm Beach567,152100%D +13.9D +12.8
Hillsborough513,950100%D +14.8D +16.6
Pinellas402,616100%D +11.7D +8.2
Duval356,803100%D +11.8D +0.3
Lee302,099100%D +8.3D +14.4
Brevard268,187100%D +8.4D +15.5
Polk256,209100%D +13.0—
Orange238,81745%D +17.9—
Pasco239,197100%D +10.0D +18.4
Volusia233,699100%D +10.8—
Sarasota222,666100%D +2.8D +7.4
Seminole194,707100%D +13.3D +18.6
Manatee181,354100%D +8.7D +16.1
Lake176,460100%D +10.2—
Collier170,425100%D +6.2—
Marion162,115100%D +8.0—
St. Johns154,504100%D +7.1—
St. Lucie137,660100%D +10.3D +21.8
Osceola131,244100%D +25.4D +20.1
Leon123,919100%D +14.0D +15.2
Escambia115,825100%D +11.5D +9.8
Alachua105,043100%D +11.6D +15.1
Charlotte100,231100%D +0.5D +6.4
Sumter94,432100%R +1.3D +9.6
Clay93,063100%D +6.6D +16.7
Hernando79,488100%D +9.6D +12.5
Indian River77,000100%D +7.4D +15.2
Okaloosa77,260100%D +8.6D +7.9
Martin76,269100%D +4.0D +15.1
Citrus74,546100%D +3.8D +6.4
Santa Rosa74,273100%D +9.8D +7.0
Bay69,885100%D +11.3D +18.6
Flagler62,570100%D +8.7—
Nassau50,393100%D +1.5D +10.3
Highlands39,361100%D +9.5—
Walton35,095100%D +5.2D +6.0
Monroe32,118100%D +8.7D +11.8
Putnam25,955100%D +12.1—
Columbia22,539100%D +6.7D +13.6
Levy18,123100%D +3.7D +8.4
Gadsden17,584100%D +10.3D +10.9
Jackson15,642100%D +10.5D +13.3
Suwannee15,831100%D +5.9D +9.8
Wakulla15,035100%D +15.2D +13.6
Okeechobee11,070100%D +17.1—
Hendry9,978100%D +29.1—
Baker9,780100%D +4.9D +9.6
Bradford9,653100%D +6.1D +11.5
Washington9,012100%D +9.4D +12.6
DeSoto9,044100%D +17.4—
Gilchrist7,802100%D +2.9D +6.7
Madison6,956100%D +10.3D +10.4
Taylor6,918100%D +11.0D +13.2
Jefferson6,918100%D +9.0D +6.6
Gulf6,686100%D +5.3D +8.4
Holmes6,173100%D +6.9D +8.7
Hardee5,986100%D +21.6—
Dixie5,604100%D +1.8D +4.8
Franklin5,030100%D +12.1D +10.2
Calhoun4,263100%D +11.2D +11.3
Union4,289100%D +4.5D +10.8
Hamilton4,122100%D +7.7D +13.4
Glades3,798100%D +14.2—
Liberty2,642100%D +13.4D +8.6
Lafayette2,608100%D +2.8D +6.8