Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

States

California

2 races undecided, about 70% counted, 5 changed party.

How the count runs here

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 12 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

Stats

Each race against past elections

RaceSince 2024Since 2022
GovernorD +8.5D +10.9

Statewide

Governor

Xavier Becerra won
64.7%5,498,786
Steve Hilton
35.3%3,006,104
65% counted

Congress

District 1

Mike McGuire won
55.7%96,807
James Gallagher
44.3%76,892
55% counted

District 2

Jared Huffman won
65.8%112,422
Robin Littau
34.2%58,465
48% counted

District 3

Ami Bera won
57.0%95,702
Robb Tucker
43.0%72,252
53% counted

District 4

Eric Jones
51.5%63,994
Mike Thompson
48.5%60,365
41% counted

District 5

Tom McClintock >99% chance
55.9%109,009
Michael Masuda
44.1%86,083
69% counted

District 6

Richard Pan won
57.5%86,732
Kevin Kiley
42.5%64,143
51% counted

District 7

Doris Matsui
57.5%77,536
Mai Vang
42.5%57,310
45% counted

District 8

John Garamendi won
71.9%124,945
Rudy Recile
28.1%48,853
66% counted

District 9

Josh Harder won
65.8%78,226
John McBride
34.2%40,665
53% counted

District 10

Mark DeSaulnier won
69.1%131,901
Jeff Frese
30.9%59,082
61% counted

District 11

Scott Wiener
54.6%119,475
Connie Chan
45.4%99,460
69% counted

District 12

Lateefah Simon won
79.8%108,161
Jamie Joyce
20.2%27,460
51% counted

District 13

Adam Gray won
61.4%58,378
Kevin Lincoln
38.6%36,772
56% counted

District 14

Aisha Wahab
56.5%68,612
Melissa Hernandez
43.5%52,755
49% counted

District 15

Kevin Mullin won
78.2%117,262
Charles Hoelter
21.8%32,747
54% counted

District 16

Sam Liccardo won
76.2%115,461
Peter Soulé
23.8%36,103
55% counted

District 17

Ro Khanna won
70.6%75,971
Ritesh Tandon
29.4%31,621
48% counted

District 18

Zoe Lofgren won
71.8%75,897
Shane Lewis
28.2%29,819
48% counted

District 19

Jimmy Panetta won
72.4%142,140
Peter Verbica
27.6%54,066
62% counted

District 20

Vince Fong won
62.4%96,598
Sandra Van Scotter
37.6%58,156
71% counted

District 21

Jim Costa won
62.8%60,705
Kyle Kirkland
37.2%35,944
55% counted

District 22

Randy Villegas won
66.6%59,396
David Valadao
33.4%29,765
58% counted

District 23

Jay Obernolte 85% chance
51.3%67,843
Tessa Hodge 15% chance
48.7%64,324
70% counted

District 24

Salud Carbajal won
66.1%117,780
Bob Smith
33.9%60,469
58% counted

District 25

Raul Ruiz won
64.7%78,478
Joe Males
35.3%42,759
63% counted

District 26

Jacqui Irwin won
61.9%120,416
Sam Gallucci
38.1%74,211
70% counted

District 27

George Whitesides won
62.8%118,634
Jason Gibbs
37.2%70,403
86% counted

District 28

Judy Chu won
69.8%142,470
April Verlato
30.2%61,555
93% counted

District 29

Luz Rivas won
59.1%79,934
Angélica Dueñas
40.9%55,282
70% counted

District 30

Laura Friedman won
76.5%159,698
Scott Meyers
23.5%48,944
89% counted

District 31

Gil Cisneros won
64.8%119,813
Eric Ching
35.2%65,010
86% counted

District 32

Brad Sherman won
66.9%144,752
Larry Thompson
33.1%71,470
87% counted

District 33

Pete Aguilar won
67.6%76,869
Stephanie Vargas
32.4%36,781
62% counted

District 34

Angela Gonzales-Torres won
60.3%81,602
Jimmy Gomez
39.7%53,761
75% counted

District 35

Norma Torres won
65.7%76,398
Mike Cargile
34.3%39,889
62% counted

District 36

Ted Lieu won
71.9%176,955
Houston Brignano
28.1%69,139
99% counted

District 37

Sydney Kamlager Dove won
61.8%88,216
Samantha Mota
38.2%54,416
72% counted

District 38

Hilda Solis won
66.5%112,988
Pedro Casas
33.5%57,030
79% counted

District 39

Mark Takano won
65.9%54,601
Steve Manos
34.1%28,191
42% counted

District 40

Ken Calvert
54.4%76,014
Young Kim
45.6%63,733
51% counted

District 41

Linda Sanchez won
66.4%132,439
Mitch Clemmons
33.6%67,093
85% counted

District 42

Robert Garcia won
60.6%127,989
Brian Burley
39.4%83,075
80% counted

District 43

Maxine Waters won
82.1%120,332
Christian Morales
17.9%26,295
74% counted

District 44

Nanette Barragan won
80.7%114,528
Genevieve Angel
19.3%27,338
72% counted

District 45

Derek Tran won
59.4%112,643
Chuong Vo
40.6%77,038
73% counted

District 46

Lou Correa won
68.5%90,108
David Pan
31.5%41,443
60% counted

District 47

Dave Min won
56.9%120,308
Jenny Roux
43.1%91,134
76% counted

District 48

Marni von Wilpert won
59.5%95,547
Jim Desmond
40.5%65,023
65% counted

District 49

Mike Levin won
57.4%121,663
Armen Kurdian
42.6%90,386
73% counted

District 50

Scott Peters won
61.0%117,694
Steve Cohen
39.0%75,182
68% counted

District 51

Sara Jacobs won
63.1%109,166
Ricardo Cabrera
36.9%63,712
61% counted

District 52

Juan Vargas won
68.9%90,084
Jeff Belle
31.1%40,604
50% counted

Counties

CountyVotesCountedSince 2024Since 2022
Los Angeles2,374,59984%D +13.5—
San Diego752,23670%D +7.6D +8.6
Orange808,24175%D +9.0D +14.8
San Bernardino357,31170%D +20.2D +20.6
Santa Clara312,27951%D +3.0—
Riverside346,26754%D +20.5—
Contra Costa264,25059%D +6.1—
Ventura203,75962%D +8.6D +13.3
Fresno163,41463%D +14.3D +15.3
San Mateo162,41456%D +3.6—
Kern141,42864%D +19.6D +21.4
Solano111,54582%D +9.6D +7.9
San Joaquin116,08056%D +21.8D +12.8
Santa Barbara98,68562%D +6.2D +11.7
Monterey88,42974%D +16.1D +12.9
Sacramento253,07245%D +6.2—
Stanislaus84,66656%D +15.6D +17.3
Santa Cruz76,07962%D +6.0D +4.7
Sonoma103,61744%D +5.7—
San Luis Obispo67,09548%D +7.8D +11.2
Marin65,28347%R +1.1R +1.1
Tulare61,08758%D +16.5D +19.0
Butte58,86870%R +0.7R +2.1
Merced41,02563%D +19.4D +10.4
Placer122,64758%D +1.2—
Shasta34,23443%D +11.9D +6.7
Alameda286,75750%D +3.1—
Madera29,04268%D +18.6D +20.6
Nevada28,73850%D +4.6D +5.3
Kings26,77386%D +15.7D +19.0
Humboldt24,97345%D +6.8D +3.6
Imperial24,17370%D +36.8D +13.8
San Francisco242,19267%D +19.3—
Tuolumne18,41568%D +10.3D +10.6
Mendocino17,29249%D +10.4D +5.3
Tehama16,88970%D +5.8D +0.6
Calaveras16,32165%D +8.1D +7.2
Amador15,25370%D +11.6D +12.5
El Dorado55,28854%D +7.5—
Siskiyou13,47065%D +7.2D +8.7
Plumas8,06180%D +2.8D +4.1
Mariposa7,57483%D +6.6D +6.2
San Benito7,26232%D +9.2D +12.5
Inyo7,21883%D +9.4D +9.4
Lake7,59133%D +12.6—
Lassen6,23960%D +5.2D +9.2
Glenn5,55961%D +0.2D +2.8
Del Norte5,43256%D +15.9D +11.8
Mono4,78491%D +6.4D +10.9
Yolo43,17155%D +2.5—
Trinity2,72153%D +10.8D +7.0
Modoc2,38861%D +9.4D +8.4
Sierra1,45079%D +1.2D +1.3
Alpine55479%D +5.3D +16.7
Napa19,35933%——
Sutter11,46035%——
Yuba7,13932%——
Colusa3,61261%——