Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

States

Michigan

1 race undecided, about 97% counted, 2 changed party. The state's House vote has moved D +9.9 since 2024. D +6.2 since 2022.

How the count runs here

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 6 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

Stats

Each race against past elections

RaceSince 2024Since 2022
U.S. SenateD +8.6—
GovernorD +12.4D +0.3
District 1D +12.1D +13.4
District 2D +9.7D +5.1
District 3D +5.8D +2.6
District 4D +13.7D +14.1
District 5D +12.5D +7.2
District 6D +10.5D +6.6
District 7D +7.2R +2.2
District 8D +7.0D +3.3
District 9D +10.0D +3.0
District 10D +13.7D +7.8
District 11D +5.6D +1.9
District 12D +9.9D +10.5
District 13D +11.4D +9.2

Statewide

U.S. Senate

Abdul El-Sayed won
52.5%2,506,004
Mike Rogers
45.5%2,170,518
Lydia Christensen
1.0%49,488
97% counted

Governor

Jocelyn Benson won
54.5%2,598,941
John James
43.8%2,085,086
Anthony Hudson
0.9%44,242
97% counted

Congress

District 1

Jack Bergman won
53.8%216,990
Callie Barr
44.2%178,381
Arnett Satterla
0.7%2,757
96% counted

District 2

John Moolenaar won
61.5%219,430
Ben Ambrose
37.0%131,988
Charlotte Magoon
1.1%3,838
97% counted

District 3

Hillary Scholten won
57.1%211,061
Terri DeBoer
41.4%152,988
Joe Jock
1.4%5,339
97% counted

District 4

Sean McCann >99% chance
50.1%186,195
Bill Huizenga
48.3%179,484
Shafina Barnett
1.5%5,695
97% counted

District 5

Tim Walberg won
59.1%198,729
Christian Vukasovich
38.6%129,797
Ronald Muszynski
1.0%3,457
99% counted

District 6

Debbie Dingell won
67.7%260,779
Heather Smiley
30.1%116,132
Linda Rayburn
0.7%2,767
99% counted

District 7

William Lawrence won
51.0%202,657
Tom Barrett
47.7%189,482
Shane Dedrick
1.3%4,974
98% counted

District 8

Kristen McDonald Rivet won
55.5%195,849
Thomas Smith
41.9%147,851
Kathy Goodwin
1.5%5,169
97% counted

District 9

Lisa McClain won
62.6%247,817
Ray Pooley
34.7%137,275
Jim Walkowicz
1.0%4,088
98% counted

District 10

Christina Hines won
52.4%188,078
Michael Bouchard
45.3%162,347
Andrea Kirby
1.1%3,978
97% counted

District 11

Jeremy Moss won
60.9%238,750
Ethan Baker
36.8%144,529
Anil Kumar
0.8%3,174
94% counted

District 12

Rashida Tlaib won
76.0%247,185
James Hooper
21.2%68,960
Gary Walkowicz
1.2%3,776
99% counted

District 13

Donavan McKinney won
76.5%209,882
T.P. Nykoriak
19.9%54,484
Simone Coleman
2.1%5,743
91% counted

Counties

CountyVotesCountedSince 2024Since 2022
Wayne704,68996%D +17.8D +10.9
Oakland658,80996%D +6.4—
Macomb413,63197%D +13.1—
Kent320,87598%D +8.1D +4.7
Washtenaw198,612100%D +10.0D +5.9
Genesee179,96496%D +15.8—
Ottawa159,575100%D +5.5D +11.0
Ingham130,589100%D +7.5D +0.7
Kalamazoo125,11798%D +8.6D +13.8
Livingston112,222100%D +1.4R +6.8
Saginaw85,359100%D +15.4—
Muskegon77,34696%D +8.4D +1.5
St. Clair78,49797%D +4.0—
Monroe73,15297%D +5.8D +5.7
Berrien68,25497%D +5.8D +12.2
Jackson67,621100%D +5.5D +6.7
Allegan60,503100%D +7.0D +11.5
Eaton55,23694%D +3.7R +1.7
Grand Traverse54,15595%D +13.5D +17.9
Calhoun54,07593%D +8.2D +10.1
Bay49,498100%D +19.7—
Lapeer44,375100%D +3.5—
Lenawee44,076100%D +9.2D +9.3
Clinton43,10696%D +2.5R +3.0
Midland41,95494%D +12.6D +39.6
Marquette33,650100%D +14.0D +11.5
Van Buren33,33596%D +9.6D +11.5
Shiawassee32,80993%D +5.0R +4.0
Barry30,246100%D +6.7D +4.5
Montcalm27,40895%D +5.7D +3.9
Ionia27,11992%D +6.5D +4.8
Isabella25,73497%D +7.4D +7.3
Tuscola24,04892%D +3.5—
Newaygo23,39294%D +5.0D +3.2
St. Joseph23,32598%D +7.3D +7.7
Cass21,72698%D +6.9D +6.2
Emmet19,595100%D +9.8D +14.9
Mecosta18,30096%D +3.9D +5.7
Sanilac18,320100%D +0.9—
Hillsdale17,992100%D +4.7D +2.9
Delta16,87189%D +10.9D +10.5
Branch16,73095%D +7.4D +7.9
Houghton16,42097%D +12.7D +13.6
Leelanau15,95195%D +8.3D +16.2
Gratiot15,622100%D +3.8D +5.3
Wexford15,567100%D +7.1D +9.0
Mason15,28395%D +4.5D +5.7
Huron15,41994%R +0.7—
Charlevoix14,962100%D +10.0D +15.9
Chippewa14,69093%D +11.8D +15.7
Antrim14,39094%D +9.8D +13.2
Clare14,121100%D +3.1D +0.2
Alpena13,82691%D +11.4D +13.3
Cheboygan13,56693%D +11.6D +15.2
Roscommon13,25894%D +9.7D +11.5
Otsego12,939100%D +11.3D +12.9
Manistee12,79893%D +5.1D +4.3
Iosco12,69592%D +9.7D +7.2
Gladwin12,49395%EvenD +0.8
Oceana12,497100%D +5.5D +4.1
Dickinson11,85390%D +12.8D +12.2
Benzie11,05895%D +11.8D +13.1
Osceola10,60394%D +3.1D +3.6
Menominee10,223100%D +7.7D +9.6
Ogemaw10,20094%D +8.3D +6.7
Kalkaska9,223100%D +12.6D +13.3
Missaukee7,38491%D +8.6D +11.2
Presque Isle7,25692%D +11.2D +15.9
Arenac7,25893%D +8.7D +4.1
Crawford6,943100%D +15.3D +16.3
Gogebic6,573100%D +12.6D +13.5
Alcona6,254100%D +5.8D +5.9
Mackinac6,051100%D +9.6D +15.1
Iron5,68492%D +11.8D +12.9
Lake5,535100%D +2.8D +1.7
Montmorency5,30995%D +6.8D +9.2
Alger4,411100%D +9.0D +7.6
Oscoda4,327100%D +6.9D +9.6
Schoolcraft4,019100%D +12.3D +13.6
Baraga3,515100%D +10.6D +14.8
Ontonagon3,17987%D +11.0D +12.5
Luce2,374100%D +8.9D +8.1
Keweenaw1,39593%D +10.6D +13.5