Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

States

Virginia

All races decided, 2 changed party. The state's House vote has moved D +14.9 since 2024. D +15.5 since 2022.

How the count runs here

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 10 points more Democratic than that report, in the same places. An early Republican lead here can shrink.

Stats

Each race against past elections

RaceSince 2024Since 2022
U.S. SenateD +16.5—
District 1D +14.0D +14.4
District 2D +12.6D +12.1
District 3D +10.0D +15.5
District 4D +11.7D +16.6
District 5D +12.6D +12.9
District 6D +17.8D +17.8
District 7D +19.9D +17.9
District 8D +14.3D +13.4
District 9D +13.1D +14.6
District 10D +20.7D +18.7
District 11D +16.5D +16.7

Statewide

U.S. Senate

Mark Warner won
61.2%2,190,390
Bert Mizusawa
38.8%1,388,696
97% counted

Congress

District 1

Shannon Taylor won
50.6%213,783
Rob Wittman
49.4%208,528
97% counted

District 2

Elaine Luria won
53.1%178,741
Jen Kiggans
44.6%150,095
J. Matt Baker
1.4%4,735
97% counted

District 3

Bobby Scott won
72.7%179,594
Edwin Rivera
24.1%59,523
Makiba Gaines
1.6%3,932
97% counted

District 4

Jennifer McClellan won
72.2%223,073
Robert Murray
26.2%81,051
Joan Bell
1.6%4,882
97% counted

District 5

John McGuire III won
50.4%182,967
Tom Perriello
48.0%174,253
Cooke Harvey
1.6%5,817
97% counted

District 6

Ben Cline won
55.6%179,392
Beth Macy
44.4%143,380
97% counted

District 7

Eugene Vindman won
59.8%191,361
Doug Ollivant
37.8%121,014
Alaha Ahrar
0.9%3,020
97% counted

District 8

Don Beyer won
79.5%248,314
Tony Sabio
18.1%56,359
Tim Sharman
1.3%3,905
97% counted

District 9

Howard Griffith won
66.1%193,922
Joy Powers
33.9%99,473
97% counted

District 10

Suhas Subramanyam won
61.5%201,952
Dave Beckwith
36.7%120,509
Ahsen Malik
1.9%6,098
97% counted

District 11

James Walkinshaw won
74.3%247,201
Arthur Purves
24.5%81,357
Dianne Blais
1.2%4,078
97% counted

Counties

CountyVotesCountedSince 2024Since 2022
Fairfax467,80397%D +15.0D +16.6
Virginia Beach184,20997%D +9.0D +11.5
Loudoun180,83697%D +17.4D +18.4
Prince William181,03097%D +21.6D +21.2
Chesterfield173,85597%D +12.4D +20.0
Henrico152,58197%D +10.8D +17.0
Arlington101,62097%D +9.5D +11.2
Chesapeake100,39297%D +11.7D +14.8
Richmond91,03097%D +8.4D +9.8
Hanover78,98097%D +4.0D +11.9
Stafford66,37797%D +18.4D +19.4
Alexandria66,39497%D +10.4D +11.7
Norfolk66,00097%D +14.2D +13.8
Spotsylvania61,95897%D +18.8D +17.3
Albemarle58,26597%D +9.7D +10.7
Newport News58,26097%D +16.1D +17.0
Hampton48,46597%D +15.1D +14.7
Rockingham44,03497%D +10.0D +19.2
Roanoke43,86997%D +11.8D +19.3
Suffolk45,42797%D +8.9D +13.6
James City43,54797%D +4.4D +14.1
Frederick40,22097%D +16.7D +20.8
Bedford40,12297%D +6.4D +11.8
Montgomery35,76497%D +13.2D +14.4
Augusta34,52497%D +8.0D +13.4
Fauquier34,76597%D +9.6D +12.7
York32,80097%D +6.0D +15.2
Roanoke32,28597%D +16.2D +22.3
Portsmouth32,18697%D +15.4D +16.5
Lynchburg29,25297%D +13.1D +12.2
Pittsylvania26,21497%D +7.8D +14.2
Franklin23,69297%D +7.9D +11.9
Campbell24,16797%D +7.8D +12.7
Culpeper22,31097%D +14.8D +10.5
Washington20,96197%D +13.6D +14.8
Isle of Wight20,63797%D +6.6D +9.2
Charlottesville19,65797%D +9.2D +4.3
Louisa19,20097%D +11.3D +14.0
Shenandoah18,47797%D +11.2D +14.2
Henry18,15897%D +8.8D +17.7
Gloucester17,94897%D +6.2D +10.9
Botetourt17,29797%D +9.3D +15.2
Goochland17,48697%D +8.1D +16.1
Orange17,36097%D +14.4D +9.7
Powhatan17,20497%D +6.4D +12.2
Warren16,62197%D +13.5D +15.6
New Kent14,02397%D +7.2D +12.9
Danville14,09697%D +10.2D +24.7
Halifax13,90297%D +7.8D +14.0
Accomack13,89297%D +10.2D +12.3
Fluvanna13,83097%D +14.9D +15.2
Amherst13,96097%D +9.5D +12.8
Caroline13,53797%D +15.4D +16.1
Tazewell13,09197%D +11.2D +13.5
Harrisonburg12,93397%D +21.8D +21.5
Prince George13,06897%D +12.3D +16.1
Pulaski12,85297%D +11.3D +15.2
Mecklenburg12,74797%D +5.2D +14.5
Manassas12,84597%D +20.7D +22.5
Carroll11,62597%D +10.4D +13.7
King George11,83997%D +13.9D +14.0
Dinwiddie11,37997%D +14.3D +14.7
Staunton11,15997%D +14.4D +16.5
Wythe11,01197%D +12.8D +14.4
Wise10,89297%D +12.3D +10.3
Fairfax11,04897%D +14.5D +16.1
Fredericksburg10,66297%D +15.1D +14.5
Rockbridge10,17697%D +9.5D +9.5
Smyth10,14397%D +15.4D +19.1
Salem9,86397%D +13.4D +20.9
Petersburg9,97897%D +7.1D +7.0
Greene9,83697%D +13.6D +10.0
Page9,45097%D +11.9D +12.4
Winchester9,30797%D +18.0D +19.7
Russell9,04697%D +14.8D +12.7
King William9,01897%D +8.4D +12.1
Waynesboro9,01197%D +15.3D +18.7
Westmoreland8,77197%D +5.8D +15.7
Clarke7,73797%D +11.6D +13.5
Appomattox7,80797%D +5.8D +12.9
Nelson7,73997%D +13.5D +10.5
Prince Edward7,69497%D +11.0D +16.7
Floyd7,50997%D +13.3D +11.1
Southampton8,36097%D +6.6D +8.5
Scott7,44897%D +10.9D +11.7
Northumberland6,94897%R +0.2D +10.1
Patrick6,91997%D +8.5D +11.7
Williamsburg6,81097%D +4.4D +15.7
Giles6,58897%D +11.8D +10.6
Madison6,56397%D +9.7D +2.4
Hopewell6,57497%D +16.7D +26.7
Colonial Heights6,41897%D +16.1D +26.0
Poquoson6,30197%D +6.4D +14.7
Amelia6,37697%D +6.1D +11.6
Lee6,25097%D +10.7D +8.5
Lancaster6,19097%R +1.3D +10.6
Buckingham6,23597%D +11.3D +17.5
Grayson6,10297%D +10.2D +10.9
Brunswick5,97797%D +8.6D +10.7
Northampton5,97697%D +7.0D +8.0
Middlesex5,88397%D +1.6D +6.3
Alleghany5,84797%D +13.3D +15.0
Buchanan5,45197%D +12.0D +8.7
Nottoway5,19997%D +7.2D +13.5
Dickenson4,98297%D +15.3D +8.3
Essex4,97997%D +3.8D +15.1
Bristol4,95697%D +15.0D +17.7
Radford4,84697%D +13.7D +21.2
Mathews4,75097%D +4.4D +7.1
Charlotte4,80597%D +3.5D +9.6
Lunenburg4,57197%D +7.3D +14.1
Cumberland4,42697%D +9.8D +17.1
Martinsville4,19597%D +4.9D +17.2
Rappahannock4,07397%D +11.6D +8.4
Sussex3,72197%D +7.5D +13.2
Surry3,54397%D +10.2D +9.3
King and Queen3,33097%D +4.4D +7.8
Richmond3,30897%D +1.4D +15.9
Charles City3,34297%D +8.1D +7.7
Greensville3,28597%D +8.9D +13.8
Franklin3,30397%D +6.8D +10.9
Bland2,48697%D +9.4D +12.4
Craig2,31397%D +6.9D +7.9
Buena Vista1,94497%D +18.7D +15.9
Galax1,90597%D +12.0D +18.5
Bath1,87597%D +10.4D +13.9
Covington1,74397%D +15.2D +17.9
Emporia1,74197%D +7.9D +17.6
Highland1,20297%D +8.7D +13.7
Norton1,05597%D +12.3D +11.3