Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

States

Mississippi

1 race undecided, about 99% counted. The state's House vote has moved D +19.2 since 2024. D +23.7 since 2022.

How the count runs here

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 10 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

Stats

Each race against past elections

RaceSince 2024Since 2022
U.S. SenateD +23.4—
District 1D +21.4D +27.7
District 2D +14.6D +18.5
District 3—D +24.8
District 4D +21.8D +23.7

Statewide

U.S. Senate

Scott Colom 86% chance
49.1%467,049
Cindy Hyde-Smith 14% chance
48.8%465,085
Ty Pinkins
2.1%20,010
99% counted

Congress

District 1

Trent Kelly won
58.3%139,655
Cliff Johnson
40.3%96,518
Johnny Baucom
1.4%3,333
99% counted

District 2

Bennie Thompson won
67.6%165,037
Ron Eller
29.9%73,005
Bennie Foster
2.5%6,058
99% counted

District 3

Michael Guest won
57.6%144,347
Michael Chiaradio
41.1%103,048
Erik Kiehle
1.3%3,141
99% counted

District 4

Mike Ezell won
61.1%131,395
Jeffrey Hulum
35.8%77,043
Carl Boyanton
3.1%6,608
98% counted

Counties

CountyVotesCountedSince 2024Since 2022
Hinds77,272100%D +12.7D +13.9
Harrison58,780100%D +19.6D +29.0
DeSoto54,095100%D +27.2D +37.9
Rankin51,171100%D +12.5D +23.9
Madison45,342100%D +8.7D +20.7
Jackson35,33893%D +17.1D +26.0
Lee24,928100%D +15.1D +28.3
Forrest22,331100%D +19.6D +26.0
Lauderdale21,774100%D +12.8D +27.2
Lowndes21,158100%D +18.8D +33.8
Lamar20,969100%D +15.6D +26.4
Jones20,301100%D +15.8D +21.0
Lafayette17,218100%D +18.8D +22.6
Pearl River16,858100%D +13.2D +17.8
Hancock16,692100%D +7.8D +11.0
Oktibbeha15,030100%D +11.7D +26.1
Warren14,640100%D +14.3D +21.3
Monroe12,716100%D +18.4D +31.0
Pike12,606100%D +15.7D +31.7
Lincoln12,344100%D +9.7D +19.2
Marshall11,500100%D +20.7D +25.7
Panola11,344100%D +26.2D +25.8
Alcorn11,132100%D +11.2D +17.4
Washington11,188100%D +21.3D +19.2
Pontotoc10,197100%D +14.2D +21.6
Bolivar9,887100%D +17.2D +12.9
Copiah9,852100%D +19.8D +20.4
Adams9,725100%D +14.2D +20.4
Tate9,197100%D +21.2D +21.0
Union8,960100%D +11.8D +18.4
Clay8,537100%D +18.2D +30.5
Marion8,388100%D +13.8D +22.5
Simpson8,355100%D +10.8D +20.6
Leflore8,217100%D +12.8D +13.5
Neshoba8,040100%D +15.8D +24.9
Scott7,751100%D +16.3D +27.1
Grenada7,547100%D +18.1D +17.5
Yazoo7,537100%D +21.2D +26.6
Tippah7,430100%D +13.3D +21.3
Prentiss7,259100%D +11.4D +18.9
Winston7,192100%D +17.2D +21.8
Itawamba7,222100%D +7.6D +12.4
Wayne7,053100%D +15.8D +18.4
Sunflower7,008100%D +19.6D +19.2
Newton6,832100%D +12.3D +26.2
George6,77187%D +7.9D +11.1
Leake6,424100%D +18.2D +16.2
Holmes6,363100%D +11.5D +9.1
Chickasaw6,290100%D +16.7D +25.4
Tishomingo6,300100%D +9.3D +11.7
Jasper6,128100%D +15.2D +28.3
Coahoma6,058100%D +18.2D +18.3
Attala5,89397%D +20.4D +19.8
Covington5,74594%D +12.0D +23.6
Clarke5,617100%D +17.3D +30.8
Smith5,454100%D +10.4D +18.5
Stone5,51099%D +10.8D +15.2
Walthall5,197100%D +12.2D +22.8
Amite5,11794%D +14.4D +15.2
Yalobusha4,79395%D +21.4D +16.0
Lawrence4,588100%D +11.6D +16.8
Calhoun4,576100%D +15.1D +28.3
Jefferson Davis4,523100%D +11.0D +21.8
Tallahatchie4,371100%D +25.4D +17.4
Noxubee4,113100%D +6.7D +22.8
Carroll4,05794%D +17.8D +13.8
Webster3,883100%D +11.2D +17.5
Perry3,81495%D +12.8D +10.0
Montgomery3,605100%D +20.2D +17.5
Greene3,53889%D +11.9D +9.5
Kemper3,383100%D +10.6D +28.4
Humphreys3,36695%D +16.8D +16.4
Claiborne3,322100%D +10.2D +8.4
Franklin3,307100%D +16.5D +14.4
Jefferson3,075100%D +10.3D +8.6
Choctaw2,992100%D +13.5D +20.8
Benton2,778100%D +18.9D +15.7
Wilkinson2,752100%D +16.9D +13.2
Tunica2,325100%D +14.2D +22.4
Quitman2,207100%D +21.9D +15.8
Sharkey1,593100%D +10.7D +17.4
Issaquena44765%——