Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

States

Minnesota

1 race undecided, about 99% counted. The state's House vote has moved D +11.0 since 2024. D +10.9 since 2022.

How the count runs here

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 11 points more Democratic than that report, in the same places. An early Republican lead here can shrink.

Stats

Each race against past elections

RaceSince 2024Since 2022
U.S. SenateD +6.1—
GovernorD +8.7D +5.2
District 1D +17.2D +12.1
District 2D +0.5D +8.9
District 3D +11.2D +9.0
District 4D +11.6D +11.0
District 5D +14.7D +14.6
District 6D +13.5D +12.6
District 7D +11.2D +11.7
District 8D +9.9D +8.2

Statewide

U.S. Senate

Peggy Flanagan won
53.8%1,521,331
Michele Tafoya
43.6%1,233,498
Marisa Simonetti
1.5%41,588
99% counted

Governor

Amy Klobuchar won
55.5%1,570,189
Lisa Demuth
42.7%1,206,626
Steven Young
1.8%51,421
99% counted

Congress

District 1

Jake Johnson 86% chance
50.0%163,060
Brad Finstad 14% chance
50.0%162,739
99% counted

District 2

Matt Little won
57.2%214,255
Eric Pratt
42.8%160,636
99% counted

District 3

Kelly Morrison won
64.1%242,079
Tyler Bass
35.9%135,505
99% counted

District 4

Betty McCollum won
73.2%245,699
Paul Wikstrom
26.8%90,068
99% counted

District 5

Ilhan Omar won
76.7%263,166
John Nagel
16.3%55,805
DeVelle Jackson
7.1%24,215
99% counted

District 6

Tom Emmer won
55.8%204,707
Doug Chapin
44.2%162,214
99% counted

District 7

Michelle Fischbach won
64.9%214,516
Erik Osberg
35.1%115,808
99% counted

District 8

Pete Stauber won
53.1%190,744
Trina Swanson
46.9%168,350
99% counted

Counties

CountyVotesCountedSince 2024Since 2022
Hennepin657,055100%D +3.6D +11.1
Ramsey247,694100%D +10.7D +11.8
Dakota229,745100%D +9.0D +10.3
Anoka180,457100%D +8.9D +14.1
Washington148,506100%D +7.4D +8.7
St. Louis99,95697%D +11.1D +11.9
Scott79,294100%D +6.0D +7.0
Olmsted78,836100%D +13.6D +14.9
Wright75,273100%D +7.8D +12.4
Stearns74,402100%D +10.0D +13.2
Carver61,303100%D +3.0D +11.4
Sherburne46,976100%D +8.4D +10.3
Crow Wing35,466100%D +5.2D +6.2
Rice31,059100%D +10.4D +6.8
Otter Tail30,964100%D +7.2D +12.7
Blue Earth29,625100%D +13.9D +10.7
Chisago29,144100%D +7.7D +6.7
Clay26,642100%D +13.4D +15.9
Goodhue24,388100%D +9.2D +10.4
Winona22,906100%D +12.8D +11.4
Itasca21,881100%D +7.3D +5.1
Douglas21,338100%D +5.7D +10.6
Isanti20,72498%D +9.2D +8.0
Beltrami20,068100%D +6.6D +10.0
Kandiyohi19,475100%D +9.7D +13.5
Benton18,558100%D +8.4D +9.7
Steele17,961100%D +11.9D +11.8
Carlton17,439100%D +11.4D +11.9
McLeod17,212100%D +7.6D +12.9
Becker16,707100%D +6.6D +10.9
Nicollet16,557100%D +8.4D +8.0
Cass16,54998%D +2.3D +4.1
Morrison16,186100%D +5.5D +6.5
Mower15,672100%D +14.0D +2.0
Le Sueur14,264100%D +5.9D +3.4
Pine13,972100%D +9.0D +7.8
Freeborn13,379100%D +11.2D +8.8
Mille Lacs11,984100%D +7.1D +5.2
Polk11,915100%D +8.8D +15.2
Brown11,749100%D +9.4D +15.2
Hubbard11,748100%D +5.9D +7.7
Meeker11,307100%D +4.3D +7.2
Todd11,191100%D +9.5D +8.9
Wabasha11,187100%D +10.5D +10.0
Lyon10,400100%D +8.2D +14.2
Dodge10,320100%D +9.8D +9.5
Fillmore10,141100%D +10.8D +5.5
Houston9,271100%D +9.8D +10.4
Aitkin8,916100%D +4.3D +4.8
Martin8,633100%D +6.6D +8.9
Waseca8,376100%D +10.5D +11.7
Kanabec7,575100%D +8.6D +5.1
Sibley7,189100%D +4.7D +9.7
Roseau6,59291%D +4.3D +11.6
Nobles6,587100%D +19.0D +21.7
Redwood6,514100%D +6.4D +15.7
Wadena6,459100%D +9.2D +9.5
Renville6,399100%D +6.3D +10.1
Faribault6,38195%D +10.9D +9.6
Pope6,067100%D +6.1D +8.2
Lake5,970100%D +5.4D +6.9
Pennington5,451100%D +10.2D +14.7
Koochiching5,437100%D +4.5D +2.0
Chippewa5,065100%D +9.4D +12.4
Jackson4,863100%D +7.2D +8.5
Cottonwood4,804100%D +5.7D +11.1
Yellow Medicine4,559100%D +8.0D +10.2
Swift4,485100%D +7.5D +5.9
Rock4,447100%D +8.2D +11.8
Stevens4,388100%D +4.2D +9.8
Marshall4,319100%D +5.6D +7.7
Pipestone4,066100%D +4.9D +11.6
Watonwan4,048100%D +12.3D +16.4
Murray3,965100%D +4.5D +9.6
Clearwater3,958100%D +7.1D +4.8
Lac qui Parle3,379100%D +7.0D +8.6
Cook3,373100%D +8.0D +10.2
Grant3,062100%D +9.2D +10.4
Norman2,635100%D +11.7D +15.6
Wilkin2,556100%D +7.8D +15.6
Lincoln2,537100%D +7.3D +13.9
Big Stone2,406100%D +4.6D +7.5
Kittson2,040100%D +11.2D +17.5
Mahnomen1,945100%D +5.4D +13.4
Red Lake1,889100%D +6.6D +12.3
Lake of the Woods1,857100%D +4.7D +4.3
Traverse1,528100%D +3.6D +11.6