Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Alaska · U.S. House

Alaska at-large

Begich leads by 19,624 votes. Not called.

71% counted

Our forecast: Nick Begich, 99% chance of winning. Projected finish Begich +10.8. This isn't a race call.

CandidateVotesShare
Nick Begich R 105,647 49.6%
Bill Hill NP 86,023 40.4%
Eric Hafner D 15,550 7.3%
James McDermott L 5,789 2.7%
Total213,009

399 of 402 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 11:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
State House District 6 7,848 R +83.3 R +16.8 R +66.5 71%
State House District 9 7,560 R +79.7 D +2.3 R +82.0 66%
State House District 25 7,502 R +81.5 R +37.0 R +44.6 80%
State House District 8 6,987 R +90.0 R +51.1 R +38.9 71%
State House District 35 6,932 R +72.9 D +5.3 R +78.2 78%
State House District 23 6,824 R +79.3 R +19.4 R +59.9 73%
State House District 24 6,661 R +81.9 R +33.4 R +48.4 74%
State House District 29 6,656 R +86.8 R +46.5 R +40.3 72%
State House District 26 6,597 R +84.7 R +56.0 R +28.7 82%
State House District 34 6,541 R +80.3 R +21.6 R +58.7 76%
State House District 7 6,455 R +85.1 R +45.9 R +39.2 78%
State House District 11 6,261 R +76.0 R +2.4 R +73.5 68%
State House District 16 6,237 R +68.7 D +15.3 R +83.9 69%
State House District 3 6,211 R +66.7 D +15.4 R +82.1 63%
State House District 28 6,189 R +86.4 R +50.4 R +35.9 78%
State House District 21 6,173 R +61.9 D +8.4 R +70.2 75%
State House District 15 6,159 R +71.6 R +2.6 R +69.0 71%
State House District 33 5,956 R +84.9 R +52.9 R +32.0 85%
State House District 36 5,915 R +80.1 R +22.8 R +57.2 67%
State House District 10 5,759 R +68.1 R +3.4 R +64.7 72%
State House District 27 5,740 R +87.4 R +57.9 R +29.5 77%
State House District 4 5,705 R +48.7 D +39.2 R +87.9 66%
State House District 30 5,494 R +86.9 R +46.1 R +40.8 69%
State House District 12 5,243 R +66.8 D +1.3 R +68.2 69%
State House District 17 5,000 R +50.3 D +34.9 R +85.2 69%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+554 votes213,009R +74.3
+128 votes212,455R +74.3
+5,295 votes212,327R +74.5
+2,854 votes207,032R +74.9
+4,990 votes204,178R +74.9
+35,889 votes199,188R +75.0
+98,331 votes163,299R +74.8
+64,968 votes64,968R +74.0