The 2028 election
The race for 2028
What two large prediction markets are paying on the 2028 presidential race, from the White House down. These are prices people are paying, not forecasts or results, and they move with the news.
A price of 20% means people are paying 20 cents for a share that pays a dollar if it happens. Each row shows the average of the two markets and, beside it, the lowest and highest of their prices. A price is used only when the market is open and its best offers to buy and sell are within 10 cents of each other; the last trade alone can be days old. Prices as of Nov 13, 5:06 PM.
Which party wins the presidency
- Democratic 67.5% 67.5–67.5%
- Republican 33.0% 32.5–33.5%
Who wins the presidency
- Jon Ossoff 17.4% 17.3–17.5%
- JD Vance 12.7% 12.5–13.0%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 9.6% 9.2–9.8%
- Marco Rubio 9.1% 8.8–9.3%
- Gavin Newsom 7.7% 7.4–8.0%
- Ron DeSantis 6.3% 6.2–6.3%
- Kamala Harris 3.4% 3.1–3.6%
- Pete Buttigieg 2.9% 2.9–2.9%
- Josh Shapiro 2.6% 2.6–2.6%
- Andy Beshear 2.5% 1.7–3.2%
- Raphael Warnock 1.9% 1.5–2.4%
- Mark Kelly 1.7% 0.9–2.5%
20 more names have a price of at least half a percent and aren't listed.
The Democratic nomination
- Jon Ossoff 25.8% 25.5–26.2%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 14.5% 14.5–14.5%
- Gavin Newsom 10.1% 9.7–10.5%
- Pete Buttigieg 5.4% 5.3–5.5%
- Kamala Harris 5.2% 5.1–5.3%
- Josh Shapiro 5.1% 4.7–5.5%
- Andy Beshear 4.0% 4.0–4.1%
- Raphael Warnock 3.3% 3.1–3.5%
- Mark Kelly 2.9% 2.1–3.6%
- Wes Moore 2.3% 2.2–2.4%
- Ro Khanna 2.2% 2.1–2.5%
- J.B. Pritzker 2.1% 1.5–2.7%
12 more names have a price of at least half a percent and aren't listed.
The Republican nomination
- J.D. Vance 33.5% 32.5–34.5%
- Marco Rubio 17.7% 17.5–17.9%
- Ron DeSantis 15.4% 15.3–15.5%
- John McEntee 4.3% 3.4–5.1%
- Tucker Carlson 3.7% 2.9–4.5%
- Ted Cruz 3.0% 2.9–3.1%
- Glenn Youngkin 2.6% 2.4–2.9%
- Thomas Massie 2.5% 2.2–2.8%
- Brian Kemp 2.4% 2.4–2.4%
- Donald J. Trump 1.6% one market
- Donald J. Trump Jr. 1.6% one market
- Donald Trump Jr. 1.0% one market
10 more names have a price of at least half a percent and aren't listed.
States
Which party wins each state's electoral votes, from the one market that prices states, for the states whose market has a usable price, closest first.
| State | Democratic | Republican |
|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | 56% | 40% |
| Georgia | 62% | 36% |
| Ohio | 34% | 62% |
| Arizona | 64% | 34% |
| Texas | 34% | 64% |
| Pennsylvania | 66% | 32% |
| Nevada | 68% | 32% |
| Iowa | 30% | 69% |
| Michigan | 70% | 30% |
| Alaska | 25% | 74% |
| New Hampshire | 76% | 22% |
| Maine | 76% | 20% |
| Florida | 20% | 79% |
| Minnesota | 84% | 14% |
| Virginia | 85% | 15% |
| New Mexico | 88% | 11% |
| New Jersey | 88% | 9% |
The Senate, governors and the House come next, as their markets fill in. Nothing here is a call: the site calls races only from counted votes.