Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

States

Pennsylvania

All races decided, 4 changed party. The state's House vote has moved D +15.7 since 2024. D +13.4 since 2022.

How the count runs here

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 31 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

Stats

Each race against past elections

RaceSince 2024Since 2022
GovernorD +24.1D +7.3
District 1D +18.3D +15.2
District 2D +18.7D +10.3
District 4D +16.1D +11.6
District 5D +13.6D +14.0
District 6D +16.2D +12.0
District 7D +13.2D +10.2
District 8D +10.3D +6.3
District 9D +17.9D +15.5
District 10D +11.3D +17.7
District 11D +14.7D +12.0
District 12D +18.0D +18.4
District 13D +13.3—
District 14D +18.0—
District 15D +15.1D +12.0
District 16D +19.4D +10.8
District 17D +17.9D +18.9

Statewide

Governor

Josh Shapiro won
60.4%3,008,665
Stacy Garrity
38.3%1,907,775
Kenneth Krawchuk
1.3%64,481
85% counted

Congress

District 1

Bob Harvie won
52.7%188,087
Brian Fitzpatrick
47.3%168,531
90% counted

District 2

Brendan Boyle won
80.8%147,970
Jessica Arriaga
19.2%35,186
81% counted

District 3

Christopher Rabb won
93.6%253,887
Dennis Mahoney
6.4%17,350
72% counted

District 4

Madeleine Dean won
67.1%231,425
Aurora Stuski
32.9%113,464
90% counted

District 5

Mary Scanlon won
72.1%213,497
Nicholas Manganaro
27.9%82,731
86% counted

District 6

Chrissy Houlahan won
64.3%198,715
Martin Young
35.7%110,297
86% counted

District 7

Robert Brooks won
56.1%164,520
Ryan Mackenzie
43.9%128,725
92% counted

District 8

Paige Cognetti won
54.4%152,616
Robert Bresnahan
45.6%128,135
91% counted

District 9

Daniel Meuser won
61.6%165,758
Rachel Wallace
38.4%103,524
84% counted

District 10

Janelle Stelson won
55.0%173,845
Scott Perry
45.0%142,059
93% counted

District 11

Lloyd Smucker won
55.6%167,322
Nancy Mannion
44.4%133,833
90% counted

District 12

Summer Lee won
65.4%193,488
James Hayes
34.6%102,413
79% counted

District 13

John Joyce won
67.5%189,493
Elizabeth Farnham
32.5%91,080
82% counted

District 14

Guy Reschenthaler won
57.6%158,859
David Bradstock
42.4%117,064
79% counted

District 15

Glenn Thompson won
63.9%171,017
Ray Bilger
36.1%96,545
82% counted

District 16

George Kelly won
53.9%154,144
Justin Wagner
46.1%131,637
84% counted

District 17

Christopher Deluzio won
62.8%207,711
Anthony Guy
37.2%122,919
89% counted

Counties

CountyVotesCountedSince 2024Since 2022
Allegheny513,30584%D +15.6D +18.7
Montgomery389,19089%D +15.2D +11.6
Bucks301,70490%D +5.4D +15.4
Chester242,84589%D +15.6D +12.3
Delaware233,60788%D +15.3D +14.8
Lancaster214,87590%D +9.8D +11.1
Philadelphia473,84776%D +24.8—
York179,26291%D +14.1D +16.6
Westmoreland142,58880%D +16.1—
Berks141,78886%D +19.5D +12.4
Lehigh136,27994%D +15.0D +9.3
Northampton127,37892%D +15.7D +10.9
Cumberland116,72694%D +15.1—
Dauphin114,16294%D +14.3D +17.0
Luzerne110,51389%D +16.8D +7.2
Erie94,48484%D +15.2D +7.4
Lackawanna86,15891%D +18.1D +2.8
Butler85,43486%D +15.3D +14.5
Washington80,72781%D +20.0—
Beaver65,11284%D +19.1D +14.6
Monroe60,34796%D +17.2D +11.0
Franklin57,26083%D +9.8—
Centre56,73786%D +10.8D +13.9
Lebanon50,98585%D +15.5D +17.8
Cambria48,23981%D +12.8—
Schuylkill48,10882%D +20.9D +19.4
Blair43,69482%D +10.2—
Adams42,42486%D +12.5—
Lycoming40,36582%D +10.7D +12.6
Mercer38,85680%D +16.3D +13.9
Fayette38,42977%D +19.9—
Lawrence31,22281%D +16.2D +10.2
Crawford28,73082%D +11.8D +8.3
Northumberland28,13280%D +14.6D +15.0
Indiana27,84180%D +14.9—
Clearfield26,95181%D +9.3D +11.0
Somerset26,85678%D +13.3—
Carbon24,41088%D +15.0D +9.3
Pike24,18790%D +14.8D +10.0
Armstrong23,90080%D +13.3D +9.1
Columbia22,38985%D +13.2D +15.6
Wayne21,57489%D +13.5D +5.8
Bradford20,76383%D +12.2D +11.5
Bedford18,85380%D +7.8—
Venango18,04281%D +8.5D +9.3
Perry17,92983%D +10.9—
Huntingdon15,93482%D +8.6—
Susquehanna15,16283%D +12.1D +10.4
Jefferson15,09480%D +9.0D +10.6
Tioga14,72783%D +7.2D +10.6
Mifflin14,33880%D +10.0—
Union14,19883%D +12.9D +12.8
Warren13,76380%D +8.6D +9.7
Snyder13,48782%D +9.6D +10.0
Clarion12,89379%D +9.8D +10.7
Clinton12,61485%D +12.2D +12.0
McKean12,42480%D +9.9D +14.8
Elk11,66680%D +9.4D +12.6
Wyoming10,90987%D +12.8D +12.9
Greene10,87578%D +21.4—
Juniata8,20079%D +8.9—
Montour6,98184%D +13.0D +18.2
Potter6,19482%D +6.3D +8.8
Fulton5,05076%D +7.8—
Sullivan2,64782%D +13.2D +11.5
Forest1,86879%D +8.8D +10.6
Cameron1,61680%D +4.9D +8.0