Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

States

Tennessee

1 race undecided, about 99% counted, 1 changed party.

How the count runs here

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 14 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

Stats

Each race against past elections

RaceSince 2024Since 2022
U.S. SenateD +17.7—
GovernorD +27.2D +29.8

Statewide

U.S. Senate

Bill Hagerty won
55.1%1,138,264
Marquita Bradshaw
42.9%886,969
99% counted

Governor

Marsha Blackburn won
45.6%957,136
Jerri Green
43.0%902,953
David Hatley
9.3%195,548
99% counted

Congress

District 1

Diana Harshbarger won
66.9%122,643
Kristi Burke
30.0%55,101
Joshua Ashburn
1.0%1,791
89% counted

District 2

Tim Burchett won
57.1%138,566
Michaela Barnett
41.8%101,533
Bruce Fine
0.7%1,751
98% counted

District 3

Chuck Fleischmann won
57.0%130,522
Anna Golladay
40.8%93,489
Dean Arnold
0.9%2,055
97% counted

District 4

Victoria Broderick 78% chance
48.9%95,585
Scott DesJarlais 22% chance
48.7%95,305
Jacob Anders
1.4%2,833
99% counted

District 5

Charlie Hatcher won
51.7%110,408
Chaz Molder
46.7%99,841
James Johnson
1.2%2,641
99% counted

District 6

Johnny Garrett won
50.8%120,950
Mike Croley
47.5%113,177
Christopher Monday
1.1%2,707
98% counted

District 7

Matt Van Epps won
50.3%121,100
Darden Copeland
48.1%115,867
Andrew Koontz
1.1%2,603
99% counted

District 8

David Kustoff won
50.8%108,276
Heidi Kuhn
47.2%100,511
95% counted

District 9

Brent Taylor won
49.6%111,968
Justin Pearson
48.5%109,429
Dennis Clark
1.1%2,413
99% counted

Counties

CountyVotesCountedSince 2024Since 2022
Shelby249,662100%D +14.7D +23.0
Davidson215,269100%D +20.3D +14.3
Knox156,521100%D +19.0D +20.9
Hamilton124,087100%D +17.2D +22.3
Williamson103,633100%D +11.5D +14.0
Rutherford95,521100%D +23.2D +27.0
Sumner61,086100%D +19.5D +22.0
Wilson55,946100%D +19.4D +20.0
Montgomery53,44998%D +18.0D +23.4
Blount45,341100%D +14.4D +18.2
Sullivan45,047100%D +21.6D +22.9
Maury36,378100%D +18.2D +12.7
Washington33,18888%D +24.3D +25.3
Bradley27,080100%D +16.8D +23.0
Madison27,066100%D +11.7D +22.6
Anderson23,586100%D +16.5D +15.4
Cumberland22,04695%D +8.0D +13.0
Robertson21,649100%D +17.8D +22.4
Putnam21,613100%D +21.0D +22.4
Roane17,330100%D +13.5D +15.0
Loudon16,52778%D +14.4D +19.6
Tipton15,66198%D +13.2D +17.3
Dickson15,597100%D +19.1D +18.5
Coffee15,344100%D +18.4D +21.8
Greene15,15983%D +18.8D +17.8
Fayette14,91190%D +13.6D +25.3
Jefferson14,838100%D +15.0D +17.5
Hamblen14,675100%D +20.9D +23.7
Sevier14,37959%D +24.1D +27.3
Hawkins14,45196%D +16.1D +17.5
Cheatham13,939100%D +20.0D +19.2
Monroe13,325100%D +12.1D +14.3
Bedford12,427100%D +22.6D +27.1
Franklin11,86896%D +13.4D +13.7
Lawrence11,567100%D +13.3D +11.8
Carter11,63675%D +20.4D +21.9
Lincoln9,880100%D +13.5D +16.6
Marshall9,922100%D +17.9D +13.4
Warren9,652100%D +22.0D +19.9
Henry9,06599%D +13.4D +18.7
Cocke9,013100%D +14.2D +14.4
Weakley8,64699%D +11.7D +17.3
Marion8,498100%D +16.1D +16.7
Rhea8,409100%D +14.9D +17.8
Campbell8,349100%D +16.1D +13.4
Dyer8,27092%D +14.8D +21.2
Giles8,271100%D +13.1D +13.7
Claiborne8,062100%D +10.4D +10.5
Obion7,86995%D +13.2D +18.2
White7,688100%D +14.2D +14.7
Hardin7,291100%D +9.2D +12.8
McNairy7,11294%D +9.7D +11.3
Carroll7,03594%D +8.5D +11.6
Henderson7,000100%D +8.7D +15.2
McMinn6,90150%D +20.9D +24.1
Hardeman6,636100%D +18.7D +22.4
Grainger6,553100%D +13.1D +13.9
Hickman6,391100%D +15.4D +14.8
Overton6,23694%D +16.6D +12.9
Gibson6,01145%D +14.6D +22.1
Fentress5,43797%D +10.6D +10.5
Unicoi5,28294%D +16.5D +20.2
Smith5,23192%D +13.3D +13.1
Lauderdale5,203100%D +19.8D +25.6
Humphreys5,197100%D +19.0D +19.9
Macon5,12999%D +17.2D +16.4
Polk5,145100%D +13.1D +13.3
Johnson4,91389%D +11.9D +14.0
DeKalb4,86688%D +19.3D +18.3
Union4,692100%D +12.2D +10.2
Haywood4,732100%D +15.4D +18.6
Morgan4,70896%D +15.9D +14.2
Benton4,570100%D +15.9D +15.3
Chester4,54194%D +10.3D +16.7
Sequatchie4,48296%D +11.9D +14.6
Stewart4,310100%D +12.9D +15.1
Scott4,01396%D +17.1D +15.0
Cannon3,97997%D +17.6D +14.9
Bledsoe3,808100%D +14.8D +16.9
Lewis3,730100%D +18.7D +13.3
Wayne3,73697%D +10.1D +10.9
Crockett3,540100%D +13.9D +23.0
Grundy3,39193%D +18.1D +17.7
Decatur3,26191%D +10.2D +8.1
Meigs3,19890%D +13.8D +12.0
Jackson3,11692%D +16.3D +11.7
Trousdale2,562100%D +21.4D +19.1
Houston2,29486%D +17.1D +15.2
Moore2,281100%D +13.0D +14.5
Van Buren2,02999%D +15.2D +12.7
Perry1,94494%D +16.6D +12.2
Clay1,925100%D +15.5D +10.6
Pickett1,87590%D +12.1D +11.3
Hancock1,459100%D +18.7D +17.4
Lake1,12289%D +17.0D +21.3