Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

States

Montana

All races decided, 1 changed party. The state's House vote has moved D +7.9 since 2024. D +12.1 since 2022.

Stats

Counties vs. 2024Counties vs. 2022The spread

Montana counties vs. 2024

How far has each county moved since the 2024 president?

R +100 R +80 R +60 R +40 R +20 Even D +20 D +40 D +60 D +80 D +100 R +100 R +80 R +60 R +40 R +20 Even D +20 D +40 D +60 D +80 D +100 House margin this year 2024 president margin R for president, D here: 1 D for both: 5 R for both: 50 D for president, R here: 0

Democrat aheadRepublican aheadNo changeThe pattern

Blue squares are good for Democrats and red for Republicans. The darker squares are counties voting differently for House than for president. Above the black line, a county moved toward Democrats.

32 moved toward Democrats, 24 toward Republicans. The middle shift is D +0.8.

Montana counties vs. 2022

How far has each county moved since the 2022 House vote?

R +100 R +80 R +60 R +40 R +20 Even D +20 D +40 D +60 D +80 D +100 R +100 R +80 R +60 R +40 R +20 Even D +20 D +40 D +60 D +80 D +100 House margin this year 2022 House vote margin Lewis and Clark Was R, now D: 1 D both times: 5 R both times: 50 Was D, now R: 0

Democrat aheadRepublican aheadNo changeThe patternFar from the pattern

Blue squares are good for Democrats and red for Republicans. The darker squares are counties that changed sides. Above the black line, a county moved toward Democrats.

54 moved toward Democrats, 2 toward Republicans. The middle shift is D +8.1.

1 far from the pattern
  • Lewis and Clark: 18 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 97% counted

Being far from the pattern is a reason to look, not a finding. Usual causes are a popular or weak candidate, an unopposed race last time, or a batch of ballots still to come.

How Montana's counties moved

Did the state move together, or are some counties far from the rest?

R +30 R +20 R +10 Even D +10 D +20 D +30 Change in margin Since 2024: 56 counties, middle D +0.8 Since 2022: 56 counties, middle D +8.1 Toward Republicans Toward Democrats

Toward DemocratsToward RepublicansMiddle

Right of Even, in blue, moved toward Democrats, which is good for them. Left of it, in red, moved toward Republicans. Bars far from the main hump stand apart from the rest.

7 far from the pattern
  • Silver Bow: D +20.8 since 2024, 20 points from the middle
  • Lewis and Clark: D +27.4 since 2022, 19 points from the middle
  • Gallatin: D +18.5 since 2024, 18 points from the middle
  • Missoula: D +17.2 since 2024, 16 points from the middle
  • Deer Lodge: D +17.2 since 2024, 16 points from the middle
  • Glacier: D +16.1 since 2024, 15 points from the middle
  • Granite: D +15.6 since 2024, 15 points from the middle

Being far from the pattern is a reason to look, not a finding. Usual causes are a popular or weak candidate, an unopposed race last time, or a batch of ballots still to come.

Each race against past elections

RaceSince 2024Since 2022
District 1D +11.6D +6.9
District 2D +3.2D +18.7

Statewide

U.S. Senate

Kurt Alme won
48.3%232,863
Seth Bodnar
37.7%181,659
Alani Bankhead
12.1%58,547
97% counted

Congress

District 1

Sam Forstag won
50.3%132,003
Aaron Flint
46.8%122,694
Nick Sheedy
2.9%7,522
99% counted

District 2

Troy Downing won
58.2%127,291
Brian Miller
32.2%70,409
Michael Eisenhauer
7.8%17,077
98% counted

Counties

CountyVotesCountedSince 2024Since 2022
Missoula60,421100%D +17.2D +8.2
Yellowstone62,66098%D +2.8D +17.4
Gallatin55,949100%D +18.5D +9.1
Flathead51,788100%D +12.7D +5.7
Lewis and Clark34,15297%D +1.9D +27.4
Cascade29,39496%D +3.7D +21.0
Ravalli23,89696%D +13.7D +5.7
Silver Bow14,85399%D +20.8D +3.0
Lake13,80298%D +10.4D +5.5
Lincoln9,84299%D +8.0D +3.9
Park9,36998%D +4.1D +22.1
Sanders6,54893%D +8.8R +0.2
Jefferson6,788100%D +0.8D +20.1
Carbon6,07199%D +0.3D +19.2
Madison5,23398%D +14.8D +6.2
Fergus5,363100%R +0.3D +18.6
Hill5,01992%D +2.8D +13.6
Beaverhead4,50693%D +10.7D +4.5
Stillwater4,517100%R +0.8D +9.5
Custer4,180100%D +3.6D +8.6
Deer Lodge3,96394%D +17.2R +1.6
Glacier3,927100%D +16.1D +18.4
Richland3,613100%D +3.4D +3.0
Broadwater3,719100%D +0.6D +10.2
Big Horn3,471100%D +6.0D +14.0
Dawson3,362100%D +2.6D +8.4
Valley3,086100%R +1.8D +8.0
Rosebud2,746100%R +4.1D +11.8
Teton2,831100%R +5.2D +8.3
Powell2,61196%D +12.4D +3.9
Roosevelt2,549100%D +7.2D +15.2
Mineral2,392100%D +13.6D +7.0
Musselshell2,405100%R +0.4D +8.0
Chouteau2,277100%R +0.6D +23.5
Pondera2,205100%R +0.7D +11.5
Blaine2,163100%R +0.7D +20.9
Granite1,828100%D +15.7D +7.0
Sweet Grass1,911100%D +0.8D +18.5
Phillips1,697100%R +4.9D +5.5
Toole1,579100%R +0.7D +13.5
Sheridan1,529100%R +1.8D +5.2
Fallon1,166100%R +3.3D +2.6
Judith Basin1,144100%R +7.2D +5.2
Meagher926100%R +7.7D +12.2
Powder River874100%R +0.5D +7.7
McCone863100%R +2.3D +0.7
Wheatland855100%R +2.1D +12.2
Daniels809100%R +4.5D +5.0
Liberty766100%D +0.8D +15.1
Carter688100%R +5.6D +1.8
Garfield64891%D +2.9D +6.8
Prairie582100%R +2.4D +7.4
Wibaux458100%R +0.8D +8.9
Golden Valley390100%D +0.1D +7.3
Treasure360100%R +5.7D +7.9
Petroleum252100%R +7.7D +4.8