Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

States

Idaho

All races decided. The state's House vote has moved D +14.4 since 2024. D +11.1 since 2022.

How the count runs here

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 19 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

Stats

Counties vs. 2024Counties vs. 2022The spread

Idaho counties vs. 2024

How far has each county moved since the 2024 president?

R +80 R +60 R +40 R +20 Even D +20 D +40 D +60 D +80 R +80 R +60 R +40 R +20 Even D +20 D +40 D +60 D +80 House margin this year 2024 president margin R for president, D here: 0 D for both: 2 R for both: 42 D for president, R here: 0

Democrat aheadRepublican aheadNo changeThe pattern

Blue squares are good for Democrats and red for Republicans. The darker squares are counties voting differently for House than for president. Above the black line, a county moved toward Democrats.

44 moved toward Democrats, 0 toward Republicans. The middle shift is D +8.3.

Idaho counties vs. 2022

How far has each county moved since the 2022 House vote?

R +80 R +60 R +40 R +20 Even D +20 D +40 D +60 D +80 R +80 R +60 R +40 R +20 Even D +20 D +40 D +60 D +80 House margin this year 2022 House vote margin Was R, now D: 0 D both times: 2 R both times: 41 Was D, now R: 0

Democrat aheadRepublican aheadNo changeThe pattern

Blue squares are good for Democrats and red for Republicans. The darker squares are counties that changed sides. Above the black line, a county moved toward Democrats.

42 moved toward Democrats, 1 toward Republicans. The middle shift is D +7.9.

How Idaho's counties moved

Did the state move together, or are some counties far from the rest?

R +30 R +20 R +10 Even D +10 D +20 D +30 Change in margin Since 2024: 44 counties, middle D +8.3 Since 2022: 43 counties, middle D +7.9 Toward Republicans Toward Democrats

Toward DemocratsToward RepublicansMiddle

Right of Even, in blue, moved toward Democrats, which is good for them. Left of it, in red, moved toward Republicans. Bars far from the main hump stand apart from the rest.

Each race against past elections

RaceSince 2024Since 2022
GovernorD +9.9D +22.1
District 1D +9.1D +7.9
District 2D +20.5D +14.8

Statewide

U.S. Senate

Jim Risch won
56.5%401,731
Todd Achilles
33.5%238,348
Natalie Fleming
7.0%49,927
99% counted

Governor

Brad Little won
57.1%407,216
Terri Pickens
32.4%230,763
John Stegner
7.6%54,206
99% counted

Congress

District 1

Russ Fulcher won
64.3%243,592
Kaylee Peterson
28.8%108,996
Sarah Zabel
6.1%23,004
99% counted

District 2

Mike Simpson won
51.7%170,721
Ellie Gilbreath
40.3%133,062
Tripp Hutchinson
3.5%11,628
99% counted

Counties

CountyVotesCountedSince 2024Since 2022
Ada224,997100%D +9.6D +12.4
Canyon77,290100%D +13.3D +15.0
Kootenai74,521100%D +5.2D +5.0
Bonneville42,653100%D +13.6D +17.4
Bannock31,195100%D +18.5D +15.4
Twin Falls27,521100%D +12.3D +12.5
Bonner23,589100%D +4.8D +0.8
Latah15,354100%D +5.6R +0.6
Nez Perce14,931100%D +9.3D +7.7
Bingham15,157100%D +12.1D +13.5
Blaine11,459100%D +8.4D +17.1
Jefferson11,425100%D +8.6D +7.5
Madison11,380100%D +7.2D +7.9
Payette8,719100%D +6.7D +9.8
Gem8,208100%D +4.5D +3.0
Idaho7,804100%D +2.2D +2.1
Elmore7,491100%D +11.1D +14.2
Cassia6,734100%D +13.8D +10.6
Teton6,080100%D +15.1D +18.3
Jerome6,101100%D +19.2D +23.1
Valley6,130100%D +7.9D +3.5
Minidoka5,903100%D +17.9D +16.5
Boundary5,573100%D +0.9D +0.7
Fremont4,814100%D +8.3D +5.0
Franklin4,681100%D +8.2D +9.3
Shoshone4,570100%D +13.8D +8.1
Washington4,338100%D +3.3D +6.8
Gooding4,345100%D +13.8D +12.9
Benewah4,012100%D +1.7D +6.0
Boise3,950100%D +5.3D +3.1
Lemhi3,794100%D +2.6D +7.5
Owyhee3,593100%D +9.1D +11.5
Clearwater3,236100%D +4.0D +1.7
Caribou2,490100%D +4.1D +3.8
Power2,459100%D +14.2—
Bear Lake2,396100%D +4.8D +3.8
Adams2,164100%D +4.2D +7.5
Custer1,98894%D +4.8D +11.7
Oneida1,610100%D +5.2D +4.8
Lewis1,443100%EvenD +1.6
Lincoln1,402100%D +16.5D +16.1
Butte1,123100%D +6.3D +2.6
Camas532100%D +10.0D +14.0
Clark248100%D +10.1D +13.8