Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

States

Oklahoma

All races decided. The state's House vote has moved D +19.8 since 2024. D +18.4 since 2022.

How the count runs here

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 27 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

Stats

Each race against past elections

RaceSince 2024Since 2022
U.S. SenateD +16.4D +14.8
GovernorD +28.8D +7.9
District 1D +22.6D +23.0
District 2D +14.9D +11.0
District 3—D +21.1
District 4D +20.9D +14.8
District 5D +20.1D +21.1

Statewide

U.S. Senate

Kevin Hern won
57.2%639,510
N'Kiyla Thomas
39.3%439,109
Curtis Stinnett
1.3%14,622
99% counted

Governor

Mike Mazzei won
51.9%581,706
Cyndi Munson
45.9%514,342
Robert Brooks
1.0%11,649
99% counted

Congress

District 1

Mark Tedford won
52.3%121,260
John Croisant
47.7%110,521
99% counted

District 2

Josh Brecheen won
68.0%143,983
Brandon Wade
29.0%61,378
Ronnie Hopkins
3.1%6,513
99% counted

District 3

Frank Lucas won
64.0%122,138
Suzie Byrd
36.0%68,787
99% counted

District 4

Tom Cole won
57.6%125,576
Mitchell Jacob
39.5%86,051
Rocco Bonacci
2.9%6,381
99% counted

District 5

Stephanie Bice won
49.5%130,972
Jena Nelson
48.2%127,608
Robert Henri
1.5%4,024
99% counted

Counties

CountyVotesCountedSince 2024Since 2022
Oklahoma228,777100%D +17.0D +23.0
Tulsa191,195100%D +17.3D +23.6
Cleveland89,762100%D +14.7D +15.2
Canadian54,182100%D +22.4D +27.9
Rogers32,116100%D +15.8D +13.7
Wagoner26,683100%D +17.2D +20.2
Comanche23,97691%D +9.3D +15.2
Creek20,663100%D +15.2D +15.4
Payne20,573100%D +11.4D +15.6
Pottawatomie20,220100%D +16.0D +14.8
Logan17,834100%D +13.3D +17.6
Grady16,836100%D +13.8D +11.7
Muskogee16,262100%D +20.7D +18.8
Washington16,026100%D +11.9D +14.2
Garfield14,806100%D +14.8D +20.7
McClain14,847100%D +14.6D +12.7
Osage14,245100%D +16.0D +13.7
Cherokee12,500100%D +22.3D +12.9
Carter12,106100%D +15.9D +13.2
Kay11,763100%D +12.0D +14.4
Stephens12,024100%D +10.4D +9.9
Delaware11,734100%D +11.1D +6.0
Pittsburg11,747100%D +14.6D +7.9
Bryan11,508100%D +16.4D +12.5
Le Flore11,362100%D +14.1D +10.6
Mayes11,475100%D +18.0D +10.8
Pontotoc10,549100%D +12.0D +10.2
Lincoln10,344100%D +12.7D +11.8
Okmulgee9,569100%D +18.2D +8.2
Sequoyah9,213100%D +16.9D +9.6
Custer7,159100%D +12.4D +19.8
Garvin6,972100%D +14.0D +10.4
Ottawa6,914100%D +18.0D +12.5
McCurtain6,727100%D +12.0D +8.5
Caddo6,445100%D +17.0D +19.0
McIntosh5,723100%D +13.0D +4.6
Seminole5,328100%D +14.0D +10.8
Jackson5,008100%D +10.2D +16.4
Beckham4,775100%D +11.7D +13.0
Woodward4,739100%D +12.9D +13.2
Adair4,793100%D +20.8D +9.5
Pawnee4,567100%D +15.9D +12.5
Kingfisher4,450100%D +14.8D +18.8
Marshall4,501100%D +12.2D +10.2
Craig3,900100%D +14.6D +6.3
Murray3,831100%D +12.2D +11.9
Texas3,632100%D +24.3D +29.1
Noble3,572100%D +9.2D +12.2
Choctaw3,519100%D +11.3D +9.6
Atoka3,306100%D +11.7D +6.4
Washita2,975100%D +11.6D +11.0
Pushmataha3,024100%D +11.7D +5.3
Nowata3,067100%D +13.8D +7.3
Haskell2,929100%D +16.7D +8.1
Hughes2,887100%D +16.8D +8.1
Blaine2,574100%D +12.1D +14.2
Okfuskee2,608100%D +16.8D +6.4
Johnston2,595100%D +12.8D +10.8
Woods2,501100%D +12.8D +14.5
Love2,487100%D +19.8D +15.4
Latimer2,462100%D +16.3D +7.5
Major2,364100%D +10.7D +11.2
Kiowa2,243100%D +5.0D +11.6
Alfalfa1,576100%D +11.1D +12.0
Tillman1,608100%D +11.1D +14.7
Cotton1,540100%D +8.4D +8.0
Coal1,497100%D +9.7D +0.5
Beaver1,433100%D +13.0D +10.8
Grant1,416100%D +9.6D +9.0
Dewey1,413100%D +10.1D +7.8
Jefferson1,403100%D +9.2D +5.3
Greer1,303100%D +10.2D +10.0
Ellis1,258100%D +10.0D +9.2
Roger Mills1,101100%D +9.4D +6.6
Harper1,027100%D +10.6D +11.3
Cimarron638100%D +7.7D +12.6
Harmon548100%D +13.0D +17.9