Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research
Forecasts. Results. Evidence.
2026 election results. Emanuel Cleaver (D) got 62% of the Missouri 5th District vote in Clay County. The margin is 21.4 points more Democratic than the 2024 presidential vote here. Clay County is split between 2 U.S. House districts. Below are also 7 local contests from the county's own results.
Only part of Clay County is in this district; these are that part's votes. Whole district: Emanuel Cleaver wins. Called.
Only part of Clay County is in this district; these are that part's votes. Whole district: Chris Stigall wins. Called.
The leader in Clay County is only who has the most votes counted here. Races are won statewide or district-wide, and only the race pages report calls. Last vote update here Nov 3, 8:11 PM.
County offices, local measures and judges on Clay County's ballots, from Clay County's election-night results. Names are as the county prints them. "Ahead" describes the current count; it isn't a race call, and we don't call measures. The county's site also lists its votes for the State Auditor, the state legislature, the Missouri Supreme Court and Court of Appeals retention questions, and the statewide amendments and Proposition A, which aren't shown here.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Jennifer Justus | 48,938 | 55.7% |
| Jerry Nolte | 38,107 | 43.4% |
| Write-in | 858 | 1.0% |
Jennifer Justus ahead in Clay County.
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Jay R. Johnson | 23,882 | 52.9% |
| Mark McAuliffe | 20,971 | 46.4% |
| Write-in | 331 | 0.7% |
Jay R. Johnson ahead in Clay County.
| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| No | 54,277 | 57.6% |
| Yes | 39,935 | 42.4% |
No ahead with 57.6% in Clay County.
| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2,527 | 56.6% |
| No | 1,934 | 43.4% |
Yes ahead with 56.6% in Clay County.
| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| No | 36 | 53.7% |
| Yes | 31 | 46.3% |
No ahead with 53.7% in Clay County.
| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 56,365 | 63.7% |
| No | 32,107 | 36.3% |
Yes ahead with 63.7% in Clay County.
| Choice | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 56,628 | 64.0% |
| No | 31,853 | 36.0% |
Yes ahead with 64.0% in Clay County.
Clay County's election-night results, last updated Nov 13, 4:05 PM. Unofficial until certified.
| Race | Margin | 2024 president | Shift |
|---|---|---|---|
| MO-05 part of the county | D +28.4 | D +7.0 | D +21.4 |
| MO-06 part of the county | R +0.5 | R +19.5 | D +19.0 |
Margins compare the Democrat and the Republican only. The 2024 column is the presidential margin in the same places as each race's votes here. Shift is this year's margin minus it, shown once at least 90% of the expected vote is counted. A dash means there's no 2024 figure for those exact places.
| Year | Democrat | Share | Republican | Share | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 | Kamala Harris | 46.4% | Donald Trump | 52.0% | R +5.6 |
| 2020 | Joe Biden | 46.9% | Donald Trump | 51.1% | R +4.1 |
| 2016 | Hillary Clinton | 41.1% | Donald Trump | 52.2% | R +11.0 |
| 2012 | Barack Obama | 44.8% | Mitt Romney | 53.2% | R +8.4 |
| 2008 | Barack Obama | 49.0% | John McCain | 49.7% | R +0.7 |
| 2004 | John Kerry | 46.3% | George W. Bush | 53.1% | R +6.8 |
| 2000 | Al Gore | 48.7% | George W. Bush | 48.7% | Even |
Shares are of all presidential votes, and the margin is the Democrat's share minus the Republican's. Since 2000, the presidential margin here has moved R +5.6.
Votes for 2026 come from the count this site reads, by county. They're unofficial until Missouri certifies them. Past presidential votes are from MEDSL and VEST, via Polling Forecast. Missouri's own results, deadlines and offices are on the state page.