Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Donald Trump's fraud claims, checked

When the President says on Truth Social that an election was rigged or stolen, this page puts his post next to the counted votes and the official record. 14 of the 17 claims here don't hold up as evidence of fraud; 3 have something real in them, and the check says plainly what is real and what isn't. His posts are checked every day.

The posts shown are pictured as they appear on Truth Social and quoted in full; where he made the same claim in other posts, those are listed under it, quoted where they make it, each linked to the whole post. Posts that are only a video can't be checked here. The count's figures are unofficial until states certify, and they update here as counting goes on; the other facts were checked on the date given, against the sources listed. More of the 2026 fraud claims going around are checked on the claims page.

Since Election Day

Texas's governor race, "Looney Tunes numbers" and his 2024 win #

Donald J. Trump's Truth Social post of an image of another account's post calling Gina Hinojosa's Texas vote Looney Tunes numbers: 1.7 million more than Beto O'Rourke, 400,000 more than Kamala Harris and more than Joe Biden, with tables of the 2022 and 2026 governor races and the polls.
Posted on Truth Social on Nov 7, 2026, 7:30 AM, Arizona time. See the post.
Donald J. Trump's Truth Social post of November 11, 2026, an image with no words of his own: his 2024 Texas result, 6,393,597 votes to Kamala Harris's 4,835,250, beside Gina Hinojosa's 5,232,679 to Greg Abbott's 4,525,947 and James Talarico's 5,447,069 to Ken Paxton's 4,250,664, each over a county map of Texas.
Posted on Truth Social on Nov 11, 2026, 11:38 AM, Arizona time. See the post.

The claim: He posted another account's post saying Gina Hinojosa "gained 1.7 million votes more than Beto O'Rourke" and "Those are Looney Tunes numbers", that "Hinojosa got 400K more votes in Texas than Kamala Harris in 2024", that the Democrat has "more than Joe Biden in 2020 by 5,000 votes", and that "These are not normal midterms numbers". It also says Greg Abbott "garnered more votes than any Republican Gubernatorial candidate in Texas history". On November 11 he posted, with no words of his own, an image setting his 2024 Texas result, Donald Trump "6,393,597" ("56.14%") to Kamala Harris "4,835,250" ("42.46%"), beside Gina Hinojosa "5,232,679" ("52.82%") to Greg Abbott "4,525,947" ("45.68%") for governor and James Talarico "5,447,069" ("55.06%") to Ken Paxton "4,250,664" ("42.97%") for Senate, each over a map of county results. The image has no other words. He posted it four days after posting other accounts' posts that question Texas's count, and it sets the 2026 results against his 2024 win.

No sign of fraud: more Texans voted than in 2022, Greg Abbott gained votes too, the party in the White House has lost votes from its presidential total in every Texas midterm race this site compares, and Democrats have out-polled their party's last presidential total in midterms before

The count now

  • In the count this site reads, with about 99% of the expected vote in, Gina Hinojosa has 5,232,738 votes and Greg Abbott 4,526,038. That's 1,679,082 more for the Democrat than in 2022, and 88,939 more for the Republican.
  • More Texans voted: 9,906,918 votes for governor so far, against 8,101,271 in 2022. Both candidates gained, so the Republican vote didn't fall; the Democrat's rise came with more voters.
  • Gina Hinojosa has 397,488 more votes than Kamala Harris's 4,835,250 in Texas in 2024, and so far 26,388 fewer than Joe Biden's 5,259,126 in 2020; the November 7 post says more.
  • The November 7 post also says Greg Abbott got more votes than any Republican for governor in Texas history. Not so far: the Republican got 4,656,196 in 2018, 130,158 more than Greg Abbott has now.
  • His November 11 post, only an image, sets his 2024 Texas result, 6,393,597 votes to Kamala Harris's 4,835,250, beside the governor's race, Gina Hinojosa 5,232,679 to Greg Abbott 4,525,947, and the Senate race, James Talarico 5,447,069 to Ken Paxton 4,250,664. The 2024 figures are the result in the history this site reads. In the count this site reads now, the governor's race is 5,232,738 to 4,526,038 and the Senate race 5,447,098 to 4,250,850, within 186 votes of the image's figures.
  • Next to his 6,393,597 votes in 2024, Greg Abbott has 1,867,559 fewer (29%) and Ken Paxton 2,142,747 fewer (34%); next to Kamala Harris's 4,835,250, Gina Hinojosa has 397,488 more (8%) and James Talarico 611,848 more (13%). There are 9,906,918 votes for governor so far, against 11,388,674 for president in 2024. Totals alone can't say how many of his 2024 voters stayed home and how many voted for the Democrats.
  • In each of the 12 Texas midterm races this check compares from the history this site reads, for Senate in 1978, 1982, 1990, 1994, 2002, 2006, 2014 and 2018, and for governor in 2010, 2014, 2018 and 2022, the party in the White House got fewer votes than its candidate for president had in Texas two years before: 1% to 52% fewer. The 2006 race for governor is left out, because other candidates took more than a fifth of the votes. This year Greg Abbott's fall is 29%, smaller than in eight of those races, and Ken Paxton's is 34%, smaller than in seven of those races.
  • What has been rarer in Texas is the Democrats' side. In those 12 races, the party out of the White House got more votes than its last candidate for president in Texas twice, for Senate in 1994 and 2018. This year both Democrats have. Totals alone can't rule out votes counted for the wrong candidate; Texas's audit of the paper records, described below, is the check for that.
  • For the 5 earlier pairs this site's history covers, 4 match the post's figures exactly and the rest are within 16 votes.
  • For 1988, 1992, 1996 and 2000, the history has the presidential vote but not the governor's race two years later: the post's presidential figures match the official ones, and its governor figures aren't checked.
  • But a Democrat in a Texas midterm has out-polled the last Democratic presidential total before: in 2018 the Senate nominee got 4,045,632 votes, against 3,877,868 for the Democratic presidential candidate in 2016.
  • Across the country, a Democrat running against one Republican for Senate or governor out-polled the state's last Democratic presidential total 102 times in the midterms from 1978 to 2022, 24 of them in 2018 (governor races from 2002, Senate races from 1978).
  • In 2026 it has happened in 9 races in 7 states so far: Alabama, Iowa, Kansas, Mississippi, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas. It's a feature of this year's vote, not of Texas alone.
ElectionDemocratRepublicanAll votes
2020 President5,259,1265,890,34711,315,056
2022 Governor3,553,6564,437,0998,101,271
2024 President4,835,2506,393,59711,388,674
2026 Governor, so far5,232,7384,526,0389,906,918
2026 Senate, so far5,447,0984,250,8509,888,539
ElectionDemocrat for presidentDemocrat for governorChange
1988 → 19902,352,7481,925,670 (the post's)Governor not in the history this site reads
1992 → 19942,281,8152,016,928 (the post's)Governor not in the history this site reads
1996 → 19982,459,6831,165,592 (the post's)Governor not in the history this site reads
2000 → 20022,433,7461,819,843 (the post's)Governor not in the history this site reads
2004 → 20062,832,7041,310,337−1,522,367
2008 → 20103,528,6332,106,395−1,422,238
2012 → 20143,308,1241,835,596−1,472,528
2016 → 20183,877,8683,546,615−331,253
2020 → 20225,259,1263,553,656−1,705,470
2024 → 20264,835,2505,232,738 so far+397,488

The same claim is checked on the claims page.

The record

  • Texas checks the count against paper. Texas law has a "risk-limiting audit" for elections after August 31, 2026 that have a statewide race and use an "auditable voting system", one that uses, creates or displays "a paper record that may be read by the voter" and is "not capable of being connected to the Internet or any other computer network or electronic device." All counties holding such an election take part, "regardless of the method of counting voted ballots used by the county," auditing one or more statewide races or measures the secretary of state selects and counting a number of paper records set by "widely accepted statistical methods"; the results must be published on the secretary of state's website within three days of the audit's end. The secretary of state's calendar sets the statewide risk-limiting audit of this election for November 19, 2026. Where votes are cast on direct recording electronic voting machines, the paper record becomes the official record of the vote cast if the audit fails to produce "strong evidence that the reported outcome of the election matches the results that a full counting of the paper records would reveal."

Checked Thursday, November 12, 2026. Sources: Polling Forecast's results history (official returns and the MIT Election Data and Science Lab's files); Texas Election Code, chapter 127, sections 127.301 to 127.304: the risk-limiting audit; Texas Election Code, chapter 129, sections 129.001 and 129.003: electronic voting machines, the paper record and the audit; Texas Secretary of State, November 3, 2026 election law calendar: the audit date.

Alaska's Senate race and the "fake" Dan Sullivan #

Donald J. Trump's Truth Social post: fake Alaska candidate Danial J. Sullivan Jr. is missing in action, maybe kidnapped by corrupt Democrat lawyers, who are scared stiff of being prosecuted for election fraud.
Posted on Truth Social on Nov 3, 2026, 6:55 AM, Arizona time. He reposted his own post from 11:12 PM the night before, shown here, on Election Day morning. See the post.
Donald J. Trump's Truth Social post of November 5, 2026: the vote totals for the Fake Dan Sullivan, plus the other slug that the Dems put on the ballot, should be immediately given to the REAL Dan Sullivan, and the election is over.
Posted on Truth Social on Nov 5, 2026, 6:40 AM, Arizona time. See the post.
Donald J. Trump's Truth Social post of November 7, 2026, saying that adding Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.'s 3,600 votes and Gerald Heikes's 4,846 to Senator Dan Sullivan puts him up by thousands, that Heikes was fraudulently put in the race, and that the Alaska race is over.
Posted on Truth Social on Nov 7, 2026, 12:55 PM, Arizona time. See the post.
Donald J. Trump's Truth Social post of November 10, 2026: an image with a green check mark by Combined Sullivan 107, 455, and a red X by Peltola 106,321, each beside photos.
Posted on Truth Social on Nov 10, 2026, 3:08 PM, Arizona time. See the post.

The claim: Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. is a "FAKE" candidate, and the Democratic lawyers around him are "scared stiff of being prosecuted for ELECTION FRAUD." Votes for him and for Gerald Heikes, who "was also fraudulently put into the Race," should be given to Senator Dan Sullivan, which makes him the winner "by a lot." The race is over, and his win should be announced immediately. On November 10 he called it "this Rigged Election." The same day he posted an image adding the two Sullivans together, "Combined Sullivan 107, 455," with a check mark, against "Peltola 106,321" with a red X.

He made the same claim in 11 more posts
  • Nov 10, 2026, 5:36 AM: “All votes going to the Fake Dan Sullivan, which was done solely for the purpose of fraud and confusion, should immediately be given to the Real Dan Sullivan (Senator!) - Likewise the votes of the second fraudulent candidate, also put up by the Dems. There should be no question concerning this Rigged Election.”
  • Nov 3, 2026, 6:24 AM: “The Dumocrats are trying to steal this Race by putting a FAKE Daniel J. Sullivan, Jr. on the Ballot.”
  • Nov 2, 2026, 11:12 PM: “FAKE ALASKA CANDIDATE DANIAL J. SULLIVAN, JR., IS MISSING IN ACTION!”
  • Nov 2, 2026, 4:03 PM: “should be running his Senatorial Race in Alaska, “UNDER PROTEST,” for the FRAUD that has been committed against him in putting another Dan Sullivan on the Ballot.”
  • Nov 2, 2026, 3:29 PM: “The Dumocrats are trying to steal this Race by putting a FAKE Daniel J. Sullivan, Jr. on the Ballot.”
  • Oct 28, 2026, 2:37 PM: “The Dumocrats are trying to steal this Race by putting a FAKE Daniel J. Sullivan, Jr. on the Ballot.”
  • Oct 28, 2026, 2:08 PM: “This is Voter Fraud at the Highest Level, and the Dumocrat Candidate, who was involved in the scheme, Mary Peltola, should be removed from the Ballot and prosecuted — So should the FAKE Dan Sullivan.”
  • Oct 28, 2026, 12:26 PM: “In Alaska, I don’t think Mary Peltola, after perpetrating such a terrible scheme, should be allowed to run, because this is ELECTION FRAUD. The Democrats cheated!”
  • Oct 28, 2026, 12:20 PM: “CROOKED ELECTION IN ALASKA!”
  • Oct 24, 2026, 8:13 PM: “He is only there because the Democrats want to steal the Election”
  • Oct 21, 2026, 7:28 PM: “Dan S. Sullivan is leading by a lot, but this is CHEATING in an Election, and the Judge that allowed this to happen should be ashamed of himself.”

A real controversy over a look-alike candidate, now under investigation, but not vote fraud: one candidate's votes can't be handed to another, and Alaska's ranked-choice count decides the race on November 18

The count now

  • In the count this site reads, with about 84% of the expected vote in, Mary Peltola leads Dan Sullivan by 5,800 votes, 49.1% to 46.8%. So Senator Sullivan isn't leading substantially; he's behind. His November 7 post gives Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. 3,600 and Gerald Heikes 4,846; the count has 4,199 and 5,490.
  • That post's sum is right as arithmetic: Dan Sullivan's 119,357 plus both of theirs is 129,046, 3,889 more than Mary Peltola's 125,157. But it isn't a result. No one has a majority of first choices so far; if that holds when counting ends, the ranked-choice count decides the race, and each of those ballots moves only to the next candidate its voter ranked.
  • His November 10 image adds the two Sullivans together, "Combined Sullivan" 107,455, against Mary Peltola's 106,321. In the count this site reads now, the two Sullivans have 123,556 together, 1,601 fewer than Mary Peltola's 125,157, so the lead the image shows is gone: even added together, they're behind.
CandidateVotesShare
Mary Peltola125,15749.1%
Dan Sullivan119,35746.8%
Gerald Heikes5,4902.2%
Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.4,1991.6%
Write-In8070.3%

The record

  • The worry about the second Sullivan is real. On June 15, 2026, Alaska's Division of Elections removed Daniel J. Sullivan Jr. from the ballot, finding his candidacy was "not filed in order to declare an actual good-faith candidacy" but "with a purpose to confuse or mislead." It noted that he first asked to be listed as "Dan S. Sullivan," and "S" is Senator Sullivan's middle initial, not his.
  • The courts put him back. Alaska Public Media reported that on June 29 the Alaska Supreme Court ordered him included on the ballot and sent back to the Division how his name would appear, with the chief justice calling his removal "the most extreme remedy possible." Being on the ballot by court order isn't vote fraud, and the votes he got were cast for him by voters.
  • Whether Democrats recruited him is under investigation, and unproven. Alaska Public Media reports that the New York Times described a Democratic recruitment operation, based largely on a former Peltola campaign manager she fired; Alaska Public Media hasn't confirmed it, and Peltola denied knowing of the plan, while saying she didn't know if her aides were involved. The U.S. Attorney for Alaska announced a criminal investigation, saying he was not assuming a crime had occurred. Alaska Public Media also notes that promoting spoiler candidates is generally legal in Alaska, and relatively common.
  • This site found no official finding that Gerald Heikes was put in the race fraudulently. He's a Republican who came fifth in the August 18 primary with 1,741 votes (1.05%). Alaska law sends the top four to the general election and, when one of them withdraws early enough, fills the place with "the candidate who received the fifth most votes in the primary election." The Division lists Heikes as a certified general election candidate; the fourth-place finisher, Democrat David B. Leslie, isn't on its list.
  • No candidate's votes can be handed to another. Alaska counts its general elections by ranked choice: if no one has a majority of first choices, the last-place candidate is eliminated and, in the Division's words, "if you voted for that candidate, your vote goes to your next choice." Voters for the other Sullivan or for Heikes who ranked Senator Sullivan next will count for him; those who ranked someone else, or no one, won't.
  • Challenging his votes has already gone to court. Alaska Public Media reports that the Justice Department sued to block certification if Sullivan loses, pending an investigation of whether votes for the other Sullivan were cast by mistake, and that a judge dismissed the case, saying no such investigation is possible without violating ballot secrecy; the department is appealing.
  • The race isn't over. Ballots mailed from within the U.S. and postmarked by Election Day count if they arrive by November 13, and the Division says ranked-choice results "will not be available until 15 days after the election (November 18, 2026)."

Checked Wednesday, November 11, 2026. Sources: Alaska Division of Elections, final determination on Daniel J. Sullivan Jr.'s candidacy, June 15, 2026; Alaska Public Media via KTOO, "Alaska Supreme Court orders a spot on the ballot for 2nd Dan Sullivan," June 29, 2026; Alaska Public Media, "Sullivan and Peltola locked in tight U.S. Senate race as more results come in"; Alaska Division of Elections, 2026 primary election summary report (official); Alaska Statutes 15.25.100, placing primary candidates on the general election ballot; Alaska Division of Elections, 2026 general election candidate list; Alaska Division of Elections, election information: the top-four primary and ranked-choice voting; Alaska Division of Elections, election results and the ranked-choice count date; Alaska Statutes 15.20.081, when mailed ballots must arrive.

The 2026 election: the polls, early-vote "dumps" and the machines #

Donald J. Trump's Truth Social post of November 9, 2026, asking whether anybody really believes this election was honest and how the polls could be so wrong, saying some early-voting dumps were so large it was impossible to win, and that it's all about the machines, which are far more important than the voter.
Posted on Truth Social on Nov 9, 2026, 8:07 AM, Arizona time. See the post.

The claim: "Does anybody really believe that this 'Election' was honest." He asks "How could the Polls be so wrong???", says "Some early voting 'dumps' were so large that it was impossible to win, no matter how many people went to vote," and adds "It's all about the machines, which are far more important than the voter!" The post names no state, race or machine. On November 12 he wrote that Democrats are "illegally threatening Republicans with knowingly false accusations and charges," and "Other than cheating, this is how they won the Midterms."

He made the same claim in 1 more post
  • Nov 12, 2026, 4:28 AM: “they are at it again, illegally threatening Republicans with knowingly false accusations and charges. Other than cheating, this is how they won the Midterms”

No sign of fraud: polls underestimated Democrats in several big races this year, as they overstated Biden's margin over him in 2020, and in Texas early votes can't be announced until the polls close and counts are checked against the voters and against paper

The record

  • The polls did miss this year, by underestimating the Democrats in several races. Newsweek's analysis found that final polling averages "underestimated Democratic support in several of the most consequential races of the 2026 midterm elections," and that the clearest misses of the leader came in Texas's governor's race and South Carolina's Senate race, where the averages favored the Republican and the Democrat won. Newsweek calls its comparisons preliminary while ballots are still being counted. The Texas Tribune reports that on election night James Talarico led by margins that "easily exceeded his narrow polling lead heading into Election Day."
  • In 2020 they missed the other way: they overstated Biden's margin over him. The American Association for Public Opinion Research found that the polls' error in 2020 "was the highest in 40 years for the national popular vote" and "much more likely to favor Biden over Trump": among polls conducted in the last two weeks before that election, the average error on the margin was too favorable to Biden by 3.9 points in national polls and by 4.3 points in state polls for president. A polling miss, in either direction, is a miss by the polls; it isn't evidence about the count.
  • Large early-vote reports can come from how early votes are counted. Texas, for example: the Secretary of State's calendar says counties of 100,000 or more people may begin counting early ballots once early voting in person ends, but "the results may not be announced until after the polls close," and "Unofficial election results must be released by the central counting station as soon as they are available after the polls close." So a large county's first report on election night can carry all of its counted early votes at once.
  • Those early votes are people who went to vote, and their names are public. Texas law requires each county's early voting clerk to keep a roster listing "each person who votes an early voting ballot by personal appearance," with the person's name, address and voter registration number, updated daily, and to make it public by 11 a.m. the next day, on the county's website or, if it has none, a county bulletin board; for this election the clerk also submits it to the Secretary of State by 11 a.m. the next day, and the Secretary of State must post it by 11 a.m. on the day after receiving it. So the number of people who voted early in person is public before a single early vote is announced.
  • Each count is checked against the number of voters. The calendar says the presiding judge of each central counting station "must provide and attest to a written reconciliation of votes and voters at the close of tabulation for election day," and that within 30 days of the election, by December 3, each county's general custodian of election records must prepare and post a reconciliation of "the total number of votes cast and the total number of voters accepted to vote by personal appearance at each polling place" during early voting and on Election Day.
  • In Texas, the machines' counts can be checked against paper. From September 1, 2026, Texas law lets "direct recording electronic voting machines" be used only if they use, create or display "a paper record that may be read by the voter" and are "not capable of being connected to the Internet or any other computer network or electronic device," with one exception. Texas law has counties take part in a risk-limiting audit of selected statewide races, which the Secretary of State has scheduled for November 19; if it fails to produce "strong evidence that the reported outcome of the election matches the results that a full counting of the paper records would reveal," the paper record is the official record of the vote cast.
  • In one Georgia county this year, checking the count against the voters caught a real mistake. Georgia's Secretary of State says his office, in routine post-election checks, "identified approximately 388 more voters recorded as having checked in at polling places on Election Day than the number of ballots reported as cast in Seminole County." The county then found that a memory card "had not been uploaded," and adding its votes changed who leads State House District 154. The state is investigating how the card was overlooked; Secretary Raffensperger calls it "a failure to properly upload election results," and the release doesn't allege fraud.

Checked Thursday, November 12, 2026. Sources: Newsweek, "Biggest Polling Misses of the 2026 Midterm Elections," November 4, 2026; The Texas Tribune, "James Talarico defeats Ken Paxton, giving Democrats their first U.S. Senate win in Texas since 1988," November 3, 2026; American Association for Public Opinion Research, Task Force on 2020 Pre-Election Polling: An Evaluation of the 2020 General Election Polls; Texas Secretary of State, November 3, 2026 election law calendar: counting early ballots, releasing results, reconciliation and the audit date; Texas Election Code, chapter 87, section 87.121: early voting rosters; Texas Election Code, chapter 129, section 129.003: the paper audit trail required of voting systems; Texas Election Code, chapter 127, sections 127.301 and 127.302: the risk-limiting audit; Georgia Secretary of State, "Raffensperger Opens Investigation into Seminole County's Late Upload of Election Day Results," November 6, 2026.

The "15% band" chart #

Donald J. Trump's Truth Social post of a chart titled The 15% Band: two line charts of Senate and governor races from the reddest to the bluest state, saying Republicans kept about 85% of Trump's 2024 share in race after race.
Posted on Truth Social on Nov 7, 2026, 1:08 PM, Arizona time. See the post.
Donald J. Trump's Truth Social post quoting his own 15% band chart, with an image of another account's post saying one formula fits all of it, that every state where Trump got under about 58.5% flipped, and that the pattern demands answers at the ballot level.
Posted on Truth Social on Nov 7, 2026, 1:08 PM, Arizona time. Ten seconds after the chart, he quoted it with this image. See the post.

The claim: He posted a chart titled "THE 15% BAND" that says "Republicans kept about 85% of Trump's 2024 share in race after race". Ten seconds later he quoted it with another account's explanation: "One formula fits all of it"; any state where Trump got "under about 58.5%" falls below half; six states are "all under that line" and "All flipped"; and "A pattern this even demands answers at the ballot level".

No sign of fraud: the formula gets 3 called races wrong, and the same kind of band shows up in 2018 and 2022

The count now

  • This year's 64 Senate and governor races with one Democrat and one Republican: in about eight of ten, the Republican share of the two-party vote was between 78% and 97% of Trump's 2024 share in the same state, with a middle of 86%. That's a band, not a fixed 85%.
  • The line doesn't decide the races either. The post with the chart says any state where Trump got under about 58.5% flipped, because 85% of that is under half. The chart works in shares of the two-party vote, and there the exact line is 58.8%. Of the races called so far, Republicans won Florida Senate and Vermont governor, where Trump had less than that, and a Democrat won South Carolina Senate, where he had more. South Carolina, which the post lists as under the line, was over it in the chart's own terms: Trump had 59.1% of the two-party vote there (58.2% of all votes).
  • The chart's 59 races are in 40 states, not all 50, and its governor panel leaves out 6 of the 34 governor races with one Democrat and one Republican: Wyoming, New Hampshire, Oregon, California, Maryland and Vermont. Its note says it excluded New Hampshire, Oregon and Vermont; it doesn't mention the other three. The six left out include every governor race where the Republican's share of the two-party vote was higher than Trump's in 2024: Wyoming, New Hampshire, Oregon and Vermont.
  • The chart's second formula, Democrat = Harris + 15% of Trump, is the first one written another way: in two-party shares the Democrat's share is 100% minus the Republican's, so whenever one formula fits, the other does too. It isn't a second finding.
  • The same test on 2018, against Trump's 2016 share: a middle of 94%, with about eight in ten races between 80% and 110%.
  • The same test on 2022, against Trump's 2020 share: a middle of 104%, with about eight in ten races between 93% and 115%.
  • So a band like this shows up in 2018 and 2022 too. A state's vote tracks its last one because most people keep voting for the same party, and a national mood moves most states the same way: toward Democrats in 2026, toward Democrats in 2018, toward Republicans in 2022.
  • A fixed ratio explains 70% of the differences between races in 2026, and a fixed shift of the same number of points everywhere explains 67%. A fixed ratio isn't a better fit than an ordinary swing.
  • Voters changing their minds and votes being switched would produce the same totals, so this pattern can't show either one. Only checks of the paper ballots can.

The same claim is checked on the claims page, with its chart.

Checked Sunday, November 8, 2026. Sources: Polling Forecast's results history (official returns and the MIT Election Data and Science Lab's files).

Texas's Senate race: "Does anyone believe this at all?" #

Donald J. Trump's Truth Social post of an image of another account's post asking whether anyone believes Texas's Senate count, over a chart of the votes reported, with James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton at every point.
Posted on Truth Social on Nov 7, 2026, 1:07 PM, Arizona time. Eleven seconds later he posted the "15% band" chart, which has its own check on this page. See the post.

The claim: He posted, with no words of his own, another account's post asking "Does anyone believe this at all?" over a chart of the votes reported in Texas's Senate race, with James Talarico ahead of Ken Paxton throughout and a legend of "talarico-j (3,385,125)" and "paxton-k (2,266,502)". It adds "Still votes to count but… damn…". The image dates that post to 10:04 PM on November 3, election night. The post suggests the count can't be believed.

No sign of fraud: the governor's race on the same ballots went Democratic too, Paxton ran behind his party's candidate for governor and conceded, and Texas will audit selected statewide races against paper records on November 19

The count now

  • In the count this site reads, with about 99% of the expected vote in, James Talarico has 5,447,098 votes (55.1%) and Ken Paxton 4,250,850 (43.0%), a lead of 1,196,248 for James Talarico. The race has been called for James Talarico.
  • The chart's legend gives James Talarico 3,385,125 votes, Ken Paxton 2,266,502 and Ted Brown 88,097: 59.0% for James Talarico. With 9,888,539 votes counted, his share is down to 55.1%.
  • The governor's race was on the same ballots: Gina Hinojosa, the Democrat, has 5,232,738 votes and Greg Abbott, the Republican, 4,526,038. It drew 9,906,918 votes and the Senate race 9,888,539, 18,379 apart (0.19%). Ken Paxton has 275,188 fewer votes than Greg Abbott, and James Talarico 214,360 more than Gina Hinojosa. On about the same number of ballots, that fits voters splitting their tickets: some who voted for the Republican for governor chose another candidate for Senate.
  • Totals alone can't rule out votes moved from one candidate to another; only a check of the paper records can, and Texas's audit of them is described below.
RaceDemocratRepublicanOthersAll votes
Senate, in the chart's legend3,385,1252,266,50288,0975,739,724
Senate, the count now5,447,0984,250,850190,5919,888,539
Governor, the count now5,232,7384,526,038148,1429,906,918

The record

  • This site found no official finding of fraud in Texas's Senate count. The Texas Tribune reports that Paxton gave a brief concession speech on election night, saying, "Let me start off by congratulating James Talarico."
  • The Tribune reports that on election night Talarico led by margins that "easily exceeded his narrow polling lead heading into Election Day," atop "a Democratic ticket that took over most of Texas' statewide offices," and that Paxton's favorability "remained deeply underwater, below that of Trump and other statewide Republicans."
  • Texas's election code says that, for elections held from September 1, 2026, a voting system of "direct recording electronic voting machines" may be used only if it uses, creates or displays "a paper record that may be read by the voter" and "is not capable of being connected to the Internet or any other computer network or electronic device," with limited exceptions.
  • Texas checks the count against paper records. For elections after August 31, 2026 with a statewide race, every county must take part in a "risk-limiting audit" of one or more statewide races or measures the secretary of state selects, counting a number of paper records set by "widely accepted statistical methods"; the results must be published on the secretary of state's website within three days of the audit's end. The secretary of state's calendar sets the audit for November 19, 2026. If the audit produces "strong evidence that the reported outcome of the election matches the results that a full counting of the paper records would reveal," the electronic vote is the official record of the vote cast; if it fails to, the paper record is.
  • Counties also hand-count up to three offices the secretary of state names, in polling places and precincts it selects: at least 1% of the county's election-day polling places, its early-voting places and the precincts whose mail ballots were counted by machine, or three of each kind, whichever is more, with watchers allowed. Ballots cast on direct recording electronic voting machines are left out of this count. In a year with the statewide audit, it must be finished by December 3, the 30th day after the election, or a later date the secretary of state sets.
  • The governor's state canvass of the results falls between November 21 and December 7, 2026.

Checked Monday, November 9, 2026. Sources: The Texas Tribune, "James Talarico defeats Ken Paxton, giving Democrats their first U.S. Senate win in Texas since 1988," November 3, 2026; Texas Election Code, chapter 129, section 129.003: the paper audit trail required of voting systems; Texas Election Code, chapter 127, sections 127.201 (the post-election hand count) and 127.301 to 127.304 (the risk-limiting audit); Texas Secretary of State, November 3, 2026 election law calendar: the audit, hand count and state canvass dates.

"Democrats materialized 20 million new votes" #

Donald J. Trump's Truth Social post quoting his own Texas post, with an image of another account's post saying Republican votes stayed the same and Democrats materialized 20 million new votes, over a chart of the House vote by party in 2022 and 2026.
Posted on Truth Social on Nov 7, 2026, 7:33 AM, Arizona time. It quotes his post from three minutes earlier about Texas's governor race, which has its own check on this page. See the post.

The claim: He posted another account's chart of the House vote by party, captioned "Republican votes stayed the same. Democrats materialized 20 million new votes." It projects 70.4 million Democratic votes to 55.6 million Republican, against 51.3 million to 54.2 million in 2022.

No sign of fraud: a big swing, but a bigger one happened from 2014 to 2018

The count now

  • With about 96% counted, Democratic House candidates have 65.7 million votes and Republicans 49.9 million. Since 2022, Democrats are up 14.1 million and Republicans down 4.5 million.
  • The post's 2022 figures are close to the official ones: 51.6 million Democratic and 54.4 million Republican.
  • A bigger rise has happened before: from 2014 to 2018 the Democratic House vote grew by 25.0 million.
  • The post's 2026 figures are its own projection from 85% counted, so they aren't checked here; this count is still coming in. House totals also depend on which races are contested, so they move between years for reasons that aren't about turnout alone.
ElectionDemocraticRepublicanEveryone elseTotal
197641,903,86031,089,7021,265,60974,259,171
197829,205,16924,559,794819,25254,584,215
198039,355,23437,317,0891,201,59077,873,913
198235,411,25227,502,872966,73463,880,858
198442,800,46238,897,330724,08282,421,874
198632,299,63226,668,515797,26459,765,411
198843,877,16436,882,281922,72681,682,171
199032,797,25527,275,2832,282,32762,354,865
199249,168,54943,448,1554,664,70697,281,410
199431,993,03436,302,8362,198,79170,494,661
199642,877,63742,349,7443,160,55088,387,931
199831,454,11532,168,8292,979,97966,602,923
200046,550,90846,984,5043,708,49997,243,911
200233,647,45537,579,6232,189,12273,416,200
200453,109,94156,154,7392,597,843111,862,523
200642,348,64935,838,2031,891,97680,078,828
200865,291,15452,127,7843,214,313120,633,251
201038,990,56144,886,0302,632,90786,509,498
201259,668,17458,289,6463,322,314121,280,134
201435,624,37040,091,4632,173,08977,888,922
201661,820,87563,293,8223,473,291128,587,988
201860,602,09350,781,4052,267,981113,651,479
202077,455,76272,941,1652,092,311152,489,238
202251,583,59054,399,7581,612,738107,596,086
202471,194,37174,714,5992,356,087148,265,057
2026 so far65,694,38949,948,0301,694,541117,336,960

The same claim is checked on the claims page, with its chart.

Checked Sunday, November 8, 2026. Sources: Polling Forecast's results history (official returns and the MIT Election Data and Science Lab's files).

Before Election Day

Claims he made from January 2025 until the 2026 election, about the 2020 election, mail ballots, and the elections and ballot measures held in between.

"20,000" illegal votes in California #

Donald J. Trump's Truth Social post of October 31, 2026, saying Acting U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli caught 20,000 illegal votes, potentially hundreds of thousands or millions, that a court ruled against it, and that in 2020 the Supreme Court said he had no standing.
Posted on Truth Social on Oct 31, 2026, 10:33 AM, Arizona time. See the post.

The claim: Acting U.S. Attorney Bill Essayli "caught a massive number of Illegal Votes, 20,000, but potentially Hundreds of Thousands, and maybe even Millions, and the Court has just ruled against it." In 2020 "the Supreme Court would not hear" his case because "they said I, the President of the United States of America, had NO STANDING."

No sign of fraud: the 20,000 are names the government believes are likely noncitizens who were sent mail ballots, not counted votes, and the judge questioned its evidence

The record

  • The 20,000 are names, not votes. The Justice Department's October 15, 2026 lawsuit says it found "more than 20,000 people who are likely aliens" registered to vote in California, and the complaint describes "a list of over 20,000 names of people the Federal Government believes are likely noncitizens who were sent a vote-by-mail ballot." Neither gives a number of votes, or mentions hundreds of thousands or millions. Homeland Security called its review "preliminary" and said it remains "ongoing."
  • The court did rule against it. On October 28, Judge David O. Carter denied the request to keep California from counting those ballots, finding that the United States "likely does not have standing or a cause of action" for it. The order notes that the government "initially claimed that nearly 200,000 registered California voters were noncitizens and later reduced its allegation to 20,000 individuals without sufficient explanation," and that it "can prosecute individuals" who vote illegally.
  • It has: on October 19 the Justice Department charged 28 noncitizens in California with election crimes. Each is presumed innocent until proven guilty.
  • On 2020: the Supreme Court's order of December 11, 2020 turned down a case brought by Texas, finding that "Texas has not demonstrated a judicially cognizable interest in the manner in which another State conducts its elections." It was Texas that lacked standing. His own petition over Wisconsin's count, Trump v. Biden, was denied in February 2021 without a reason given.

Checked Monday, November 9, 2026. Sources: Justice Department, October 15, 2026; The complaint, United States v. California; U.S. District Court, Central District of California: order denying a temporary restraining order in United States v. California, October 28, 2026; Justice Department: 28 foreign nationals charged in California, October 19, 2026; Supreme Court: Texas v. Pennsylvania, December 11, 2020; Supreme Court docket 20-882, Trump v. Biden.

Minnesota's Senate race #

Donald J. Trump's Truth Social post of October 26, 2026, endorsing Michele Tafoya for Senate in Minnesota, saying the only way she can lose is if they cheat with the ballots as they come in, and that he won Minnesota three times but wasn't given the victories.
Posted on Truth Social on Oct 26, 2026, 2:15 PM, Arizona time. See the post.

The claim: "The only way she can lose is if they cheat by playing games with the Ballots as they come in." He "won Minnesota three times, but they didn't give me the Victories, and Minnesota hasn't been 'won' since 1972, when Richard Nixon claimed the trophy."

He made the same claim in 1 more post
  • Jul 15, 2026, 10:09 AM: “If the Elections in Minnesota weren’t RIGGED, any Republican could win, but they were, and that is why nobody has won there since Richard Nixon many years ago.”

No sign of fraud: Michele Tafoya's early lead ended when Hennepin County reported its votes, and he lost Minnesota in all three of his own elections

The count now

  • In the count this site reads, with about 99% of the expected vote in, Peggy Flanagan has 1,521,380 votes (53.8%) and Michele Tafoya 1,233,510 (43.6%), a lead of 287,870. The race has been called for Peggy Flanagan.
  • The post warns of games with the ballots as they come in. In the count's updates this site logged, Michele Tafoya was ahead with 1,234,304 votes counted, 44% of the count so far. The next update added 843,846 votes, 67% of them for Peggy Flanagan, and Peggy Flanagan led in every update after. Most of that update was one county, Hennepin County, reporting 656,312 votes at once, 72% of them for Peggy Flanagan. A big county's votes arrive together when it reports, so the statewide lead can change at that moment.
  • The post says he won Minnesota three times. In the results this site reads, he lost it all three times: to Hillary Clinton by 1.5 points in 2016, to Joe Biden by 7.1 points in 2020 and to Kamala Harris by 4.2 points in 2024.
  • He's right that Minnesota hasn't voted Republican for president since 1972: in the results this site reads, from 1976 to 2024, it voted for the Democrat all 13 times.

Checked Monday, November 9, 2026. Sources: Polling Forecast's results history (official returns and the MIT Election Data and Science Lab's files); Minnesota Secretary of State: 2024 general election results.

Wayne County, Michigan, and "TOO BIG TO RIG" #

Donald J. Trump's Truth Social post of August 5, 2026, calling Wayne County, Michigan one of the most corrupt voting areas in the world, saying more votes are cast there than there are voters, and telling people to get ready for another rigged election.
Posted on Truth Social on Aug 5, 2026, 6:28 AM, Arizona time. See the post.

The claim: Wayne County, home of Detroit, is "one of the most corrupt voting areas in the United States, if not the World," where "Miracles happen … including more votes being cast than there are voters, by a lot." "Get ready for another Rigged Election. In November we must VOTE FOR MIKE ROGERS, and make Michigan TOO BIG TO RIG."

No sign of fraud: in Michigan's last full report, Wayne County had the lowest turnout of any county, 70.5% of its active voters

The count now

  • In the count this site reads, with about 99% of the expected vote in, Abdul El-Sayed has 2,520,889 votes (52.5%) and Mike Rogers 2,181,112 (45.5%), a lead of 339,777. The race has been called for Abdul El-Sayed.

The record

  • Michigan's own figures show nothing like more votes than voters there. Its Department of State reports that in the 2024 general election "Wayne County had the lowest turnout rate of active registered voters at 70.5%" of any county in the state.
  • He posted the morning after the August 4 primary. Michigan's Secretary of State had said unofficial results were "expected to be fully reported about 24 hours after polls close," with the state's canvassers to certify by August 24.
  • This site found no official report of more ballots than voters in Wayne County in 2026.

Checked Monday, November 9, 2026. Sources: Michigan Department of State, 2024 Elections Report; Michigan Secretary of State, August 4, 2026.

New Jersey's noncitizen registrations #

Donald J. Trump's Truth Social post of July 21, 2026, saying Homeland Security has released a new number, 35,152 noncitizens registered to vote in New Jersey, that the real numbers will be many times that, and that they are all Democrats.
Posted on Truth Social on Jul 21, 2026, 8:32 PM, Arizona time. See the post.

The claim: "35,152 is the new number just released by Homeland Security of non-citizens registered to vote in New Jersey. These are just the ones that got caught. The real numbers will prove to be many times this amount. They are all Dumocrats!"

He made the same claim in 2 more posts

Not mass fraud, but a real error: New Jersey says a software error registered about 6,600 people who said they weren't citizens, and a preliminary count finds fewer than 400 of them voted; the 35,152 is a federal estimate of how many there "may be"

The record

  • Part of this is real. On July 21, 2026, Governor Mikie Sherrill said a software error in the state's motor vehicle system had registered "roughly 6,600 people who indicated that they were not U.S. citizens between June 2023 and June 2024," and that a preliminary analysis "shows fewer than 400 individuals who were newly registered for the first time because of the error voted." The governor ordered them removed from the rolls and an investigation.
  • The ones who voted weren't all Democrats: the governor said they "were registered as Democrats, Republicans and Unaffiliated voters and were scattered across the state."
  • The 35,152 is an estimate. Homeland Security's July 17 release says that "through preliminary reviews of the four states' records, DHS found that there may be as many as" 35,152 noncitizens registered in New Jersey.
  • The same release put Nevada at as many as 15,903. A federal judge's order notes that Nevada's number fell to 185 after a manual review, and that Nevada officials confirmed all 185 were citizens.

Checked Monday, November 9, 2026. Sources: Governor of New Jersey, July 21, 2026; Department of Homeland Security, July 17, 2026; U.S. District Court, Central District of California: order denying a temporary restraining order in United States v. California, October 28, 2026.

California's June primary #

Donald J. Trump's Truth Social post of June 3, 2026, saying there is big cheating by the Democrats in California, that votes are tied up and may not be in for weeks, and that it is under investigation by the U.S. Attorney's Office in Los Angeles.
Posted on Truth Social on Jun 3, 2026, 10:05 PM, Arizona time. See the post.
Donald J. Trump's Truth Social post of June 8, 2026, saying it is not possible for Spencer Pratt to have lost the Los Angeles runoffs after his big lead, calling the elections rigged, and saying Steve Hilton is next.
Posted on Truth Social on Jun 8, 2026, 9:16 AM, Arizona time. See the post.

The claim: "There's BIG cheating by the Dumocrats in California. Votes are all tied up. May not be in for weeks." It is "Not possible for Spencer Pratt to have lost the L.A. runoffs after the big lead he had," and "Now they'll be working on great guy Steve Hilton."

He made the same claim in 2 more posts
  • Jun 7, 2026, 8:02 PM: “Has anybody been watching the CROOKED Election going on in California. Two great Republican Candidates are being cheated, and so is America”
  • Jun 4, 2026, 10:30 AM: “Look what’s happening in California, the Dumocrats, right before our very eyes, are stealing the Vote.”

No sign of fraud: California gives mail ballots a week to arrive and counties a month to count, and Steve Hilton, whom he said they'd work on next, advanced

The record

  • Counting for weeks is the law. A mail ballot postmarked by Election Day counts if it arrives within seven days, and counties have 30 days to finish. In its semi-final count, released the day after the primary, Los Angeles County had counted 1,318,466 ballots and said "many outstanding ballots will still be processed"; its final count was 2,227,461.
  • Steve Hilton wasn't cheated: he came second for governor, with 2,277,318 votes (24.6%) to Xavier Becerra's 2,591,857 (28.0%), and the top two go on to November.
  • Spencer Pratt ran for mayor of Los Angeles. KFI reported him second the day after the primary, behind Mayor Karen Bass, and ABC7 reported him third once the later ballots were counted, behind Nithya Raman; Bass and Raman went on to November. Late ballots moving a close race is how a count that runs for weeks works.
  • The U.S. attorney's office in Los Angeles did say it had opened "multiple election fraud investigations," the Associated Press reported. In October the Justice Department charged 28 noncitizens in California with election crimes, one of whom it says voted in the June primary. Those are charges against individual voters; this site found no charge or official finding about the count itself.

Checked Monday, November 9, 2026. Sources: California Secretary of State: Statement of Vote, June 2, 2026; California Elections Code § 3020; California Elections Code § 15372; Los Angeles County, June 3, 2026; Los Angeles County, June 26, 2026; KFI; ABC7; Associated Press, via KSAT; Justice Department: 28 foreign nationals charged in California, October 19, 2026.

Maryland's "500,000 Illegal Mail In Ballots" #

Donald J. Trump's Truth Social post of May 18, 2026, saying Maryland sent out 500,000 illegal mail-in ballots and got caught, that many went to Democrats, and that Governor Wes Moore allowed it so Democrats would win.
Posted on Truth Social on May 18, 2026, 12:42 PM, Arizona time. See the post.

The claim: Maryland "sent out 500,000 Illegal Mail In Ballots, and they got caught!" Now it is sending 500,000 more, "but nobody knows what's happening with the first 500,000." "Many of these Ballots went to Democrats," and Governor Wes Moore "allowed this to happen in order to make sure that Democrats win."

He made the same claim in 1 more post

No sign of fraud: a vendor's printing error sent some voters the wrong party's primary ballot, so the state mailed everyone a replacement

The record

  • The ballots weren't fake. On May 15, 2026, Maryland's State Board of Elections said "an error by our mail-in ballot vendor" had left "some voters receiving the wrong party ballot" for the June 23 primary, and that "all voters must be issued a replacement ballot."
  • The 500,000 is everyone who asked for a mail ballot: the board counted "over 500,000 voters requesting mail-in ballots." The vendor couldn't tell who had the right ballot, so the board sent every one of them a new one. The second mailing he describes was the fix.
  • Returned first ballots are set aside. The board says local offices are "able to identify the original ballots and secure them," and that they "have been voided" in the system that tracks ballots. A replacement is counted; an original counts only after a check that it is the voter's own party's ballot, and a wrong-party original counts only in nonpartisan contests.
  • The mistake was in which party's primary ballot a voter got, and a wrong-party ballot counts only in nonpartisan contests, so it couldn't add a vote for a Democrat over a Republican.
  • Maryland's governor doesn't run its elections. State law says the State Board of Elections "shall manage and supervise elections in the State"; the governor appoints its five members, with the state Senate's consent.

Checked Monday, November 9, 2026. Sources: Maryland State Board of Elections, May 15, 2026; Maryland State Board of Elections, May 18, 2026; Maryland State Board of Elections: replacement ballots; Maryland Election Law § 2-102; Maryland Election Law § 2-101.

Virginia's redistricting referendum #

Donald J. Trump's Truth Social post of April 22, 2026, saying a rigged election took place in Virginia the night before, that Republicans were winning all day until a massive mail-in ballot drop at the end, and that the referendum's language was deceptive.
Posted on Truth Social on Apr 22, 2026, 10:34 AM, Arizona time. See the post.

The claim: "A RIGGED ELECTION TOOK PLACE LAST NIGHT IN THE GREAT COMMONWEALTH OF VIRGINIA!" Republicans were winning all day "until the very end when, of course, there was a massive 'Mail In Ballot Drop!'" The referendum's language "was purposefully unintelligible and deceptive." "Let's see if the Courts will fix this."

No sign of fraud: Virginia reports its absentee votes separately, after the polls close, and the court that voided the referendum did so over how the legislature passed it, not the count

The record

  • The courts did act. On May 8, 2026, the Supreme Court of Virginia held that "the legislative process employed to advance this proposal violated Article XII, Section 1 of the Constitution of Virginia," which "nullifies its legal efficacy." The ruling was about how the General Assembly put the amendment on the ballot, not about the count. The Department of Elections says the ruling "voids" the referendum.
  • The result the court cites: 1,604,276 votes for the amendment and 1,499,393 against, as the Department of Elections reported on April 30. About 45% of the votes were cast early and 55% on Election Day.
  • A late batch of absentee votes is how Virginia counts. State law says results from absentee voting and from voting at the precinct on Election Day "shall be reported separately," and the State Board of Elections' policy says that after the polls close, "The consolidated total of both in-person and mailed-in absentee ballots, processed as of Election Day, will be entered into the election night reporting system on the night of the election." So the lead can change when the absentee totals come in.
  • "Six to five goes to ten to one" is right about the map: the court described the existing districts as "split 6-5 between the two major political parties" and the new ones as "expected districts divided 10-1."
  • The question on the ballot read: "Should the Constitution of Virginia be amended to allow the General Assembly to temporarily adopt new congressional districts to restore fairness in the upcoming elections, while ensuring Virginia's standard redistricting process resumes for all future redistricting after the 2030 census?"

Checked Monday, November 9, 2026. Sources: Supreme Court of Virginia: Scott v. McDougle, May 8, 2026; Virginia Department of Elections, May 2026; Virginia Department of Elections: the ballot question; Code of Virginia § 24.2-667.1; Virginia State Board of Elections, Policy 2023-001.

"America's Elections are Rigged, Stolen" #

Donald J. Trump's Truth Social post of February 5, 2026, saying America's elections are rigged, stolen and a laughingstock, and asking Republicans to fight for the SAVE America Act: voter ID, proof of citizenship to register, and no mail-in ballots except for illness, disability, military or travel.
Posted on Truth Social on Feb 5, 2026, 4:04 PM, Arizona time. See the post.

The claim: "America's Elections are Rigged, Stolen, and a Laughingstock all over the World." The fix is the SAVE America Act: every voter shows ID, proof of citizenship to register, and no mail-in ballots except for illness, disability, the military or travel. In other posts he says Democrats refuse voter ID and proof of citizenship because "They want to continue to cheat in Elections."

He made the same claim in 20 more posts
  • Nov 2, 2026, 5:13 PM: “The Dumocrats love to CHEAT, and Max will work tirelessly to Safeguard Indiana's Elections.”
  • Oct 22, 2026, 8:23 PM: “The Dumocrats love to CHEAT, and Max will work tirelessly to Safeguard Indiana's Elections.”
  • Oct 19, 2026, 12:06 PM: “Maybe even the Crooked Elections, that New Mexico is known for, would become honest again!”
  • Sep 6, 2026, 4:36 PM: “one of the great vote cheating states of all time”
  • Sep 6, 2026, 6:13 AM: “The Dumocrats CHEAT. Why won’t they approve Voter I.D.? Proof of Citizenship?”
  • Aug 26, 2026, 8:38 AM: “ALL VOTERS MUST SHOW PHOTO I.D. (IDENTIFICATION!) - Meaning they want to CHEAT!”
  • Jul 23, 2026, 4:23 PM: “The Dumocrats love to CHEAT, and Tim will work tirelessly to Safeguard Georgia’s Elections.”
  • Jun 8, 2026, 3:59 PM: “Democrats fought hard against this, presumably so they can CHEAT.”
  • Jun 4, 2026, 11:52 AM: “I believe we have the Most Dishonest Elections of any Country, anywhere in the World!”
  • May 20, 2026, 8:13 AM: “The Dumocrats cheat, lie, and steal, especially when it comes to Votes in Elections”
  • Apr 27, 2026, 5:16 PM: “America’s Elections are Rigged, Stolen, and a Laughingstock all over the World. We are either going to fix them, or we won’t have a Country any longer.”
  • Mar 17, 2026, 5:21 AM: “NO MORE RIGGED ELECTIONS!”
  • Mar 2, 2026, 6:28 PM: “America’s Elections are Rigged, Stolen, and a Laughingstock all over the World. We are either going to fix them, or we won’t have a Country any longer.”
  • Feb 13, 2026, 3:02 PM: “We cannot let the Democrats get away with NO VOTER I.D. any longer. These are horrible, disingenuous CHEATERS.”
  • Feb 13, 2026, 2:35 PM: “The Democrats refuse to vote for Voter I.D., or Citizenship. The reason is very simple — They want to continue to cheat in Elections.”
  • Feb 8, 2026, 8:43 AM: “America’s Elections are Rigged, Stolen, and a Laughingstock all over the World. We are either going to fix them, or we won’t have a Country any longer.”
  • Dec 31, 2025, 1:36 PM: “Because they want to cheat, and the Republicans should not put up with this, and many other such things, any longer!!!”
  • Dec 3, 2025, 9:31 PM: “Great! Our Elections are Crooked and Rigged. The voters know it.”
  • Nov 9, 2025, 11:50 AM: “That is for one reason, and one reason only — THEY WANT TO CHEAT!!!”
  • Apr 1, 2025, 7:23 PM: “Democrats fought hard against this, presumably so they can CHEAT.”

Not rigged: some noncitizens do vote, and they are being charged, but the cases number in the hundreds, against more than 158 million ballots counted in 2024

The record

  • Some noncitizens do vote, and they are being prosecuted. On November 2, 2026, the Justice Department said it had charged 239 people with voting fraud-related offenses since January 2025, and 195 noncitizens with illegal voting and registration offenses in the previous nine weeks, across 25 states. Charges aren't convictions.
  • For scale: more than 158 million ballots were counted in the 2024 general election, the U.S. Election Assistance Commission reports.
  • Checks of whole voter rolls find small numbers. Utah's review of 2,069,640 voter records, published on May 27, 2026, found 27 confirmed noncitizens, 13 of whom had voted, and 25 "probable noncitizens"; it confirmed 99.72% of its registered voters as citizens, and couldn't confirm 5,007 others, many registered before ID numbers were required. Texas ran more than 18 million voters through the federal citizenship database and flagged 2,724 "potential noncitizens" for its counties to investigate.
  • Federal flags shrink when they're checked. Homeland Security says its citizenship database has flagged more than 24,000 "potential non-U.S. citizens" on voter rolls since April 2025, from over 60 million queries. In July 2026 it said Nevada had "as many as" 15,903 noncitizens registered; a federal judge's order notes the number fell to 185 after a manual review, and Nevada officials confirmed all 185 were citizens.

Checked Monday, November 9, 2026. Sources: Justice Department, November 2, 2026; U.S. Election Assistance Commission: 2024 Election Administration and Voting Survey; Utah Lieutenant Governor: citizenship review, May 27, 2026; Texas Secretary of State, October 20, 2025; Department of Homeland Security, April 22, 2026; Department of Homeland Security, July 17, 2026; U.S. District Court, Central District of California: order denying a temporary restraining order in United States v. California, October 28, 2026.

California's Proposition 50 #

Donald J. Trump's Truth Social post of November 4, 2025, calling California's redistricting vote a giant scam, saying the voting itself is rigged and that its mail-in ballots are under serious legal and criminal review.
Posted on Truth Social on Nov 4, 2025, 9:26 AM, Arizona time. See the post.

The claim: California's redistricting vote is "a GIANT SCAM in that the entire process, in particular the Voting itself, is RIGGED." Its mail-in ballots, "where the Republicans in that State are 'Shut Out,'" are "under very serious legal and criminal review."

He made the same claim in 1 more post
  • Oct 26, 2025, 11:26 AM: “Watch how totally dishonest the California Prop Vote is! Millions of Ballots being “shipped.””

No sign of fraud: Proposition 50 passed by 29 points, and Los Angeles County's hand-count check found no discrepancies

The record

  • California certified the result: 7,453,339 votes for Proposition 50 and 4,116,998 against, 64.4% to 35.6%. Of the 11,584,393 Californians who voted, 10,297,299 voted by mail.
  • So many ballots were mailed because California's law requires it: an elections official "shall, no later than 29 days before the day of the election, begin mailing" a ballot "to every registered voter," Republicans included.
  • Los Angeles County hand-counted a sample of ballots after the election, as state law requires, and compared it with the machine count. The discrepancies it reported: "None."
  • The Justice Department sent monitors to polling places in five California counties, Los Angeles among them. This site found no charge or official finding of fraud in the count.

Checked Monday, November 9, 2026. Sources: California Secretary of State: Statement of Vote, November 4, 2025; California Secretary of State: certified results; California Elections Code § 3000.5; Los Angeles County: 1% manual tally report; Justice Department, October 24, 2025.

The 2020 election, "rigged and stolen" #

Donald J. Trump's Truth Social post of June 20, 2025, saying Joe Biden lost the 2020 presidential election by a landslide, that the 2020 election was a total fraud, and that the evidence is massive and overwhelming.
Posted on Truth Social on Jun 20, 2025, 6:34 AM, Arizona time. See the post.
Donald J. Trump's Truth Social post of October 22, 2025, asking whether Barack Obama believes Joe Biden got 15 million more votes than he did in 2012, 65.9 against 81 million, and calling the 2020 election an illegal scam.
Posted on Truth Social on Oct 22, 2025, 5:06 PM, Arizona time. See the post.

The claim: Joe Biden "lost the 2020 Presidential Election by a 'LANDSLIDE!'" and "the 2020 election was a total FRAUD! The evidence is MASSIVE and OVERWHELMING." Biden can't really have "got 15 Million more Votes" than Barack Obama did in 2012, "65.9 vs. 81 Million".

He made the same claim in 22 more posts
  • Aug 21, 2026, 9:55 AM: “This is biggest scam in history (other than Obamacare, Covid vaccine & stolen 2020 election)”
  • May 2, 2026, 4:09 PM: “this same group of Human Garbage RIGGED the 2020 Presidential Election.”
  • Apr 20, 2026, 7:16 AM: “the polls are rigged, much as the 2020 Presidential Election was rigged.”
  • Mar 21, 2026, 7:04 PM: “Tina Peters, a 73-year-old woman with cancer, was given a nine year jail sentence in Colorado because she caught the Democrats CHEATING on the Presidential Election of 2020.”
  • Mar 20, 2026, 3:01 PM: “she went after the Democrats for cheating in the 2020 Presidential Election.”
  • Mar 18, 2026, 4:51 PM: “FOR EXPOSING FRAUD BY THE DEMOCRATS DURING THE 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION.”
  • Feb 21, 2026, 2:06 PM: “changed his views on the Rigged Election of 2020”
  • Jan 19, 2026, 6:51 AM: “Rigged Elections are common in the U.S., with the Presidential Election of 2020 being the Granddaddy of them all.”
  • Jan 17, 2026, 9:13 AM: “a protest that turned out to be correct for those doing the protesting — The Election was RIGGED!”
  • Dec 11, 2025, 4:49 PM: “Today I am granting Tina a full Pardon for her attempts to expose Voter Fraud in the Rigged 2020 Presidential Election!”
  • Nov 26, 2025, 12:31 PM: “THE 2020 ELECTION WAS RIGGED AND STOLEN”
  • Nov 23, 2025, 7:21 AM: “FREE TINA PETERS, WHO SITS IN A COLORADO PRISON, DYING & OLD, FOR ATTEMPTING TO EXPOSE VOTER FRAUD IN THE RIGGED 2O20 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION!!!”
  • Nov 23, 2025, 7:14 AM: “If the 2020 Presidential Election was not RIGGED & STOLEN, the only thing the Radical Left Democrats are good at doing, there would be no Ukraine/Russia War”
  • Nov 5, 2025, 4:07 PM: “The 2020 Presidential Election was RIGGED and STOLEN!”
  • Oct 24, 2025, 7:11 PM: “They cheated and rigged the 2020 Presidential Election.”
  • Sep 8, 2025, 5:39 AM: “THE BIDEN AUTOPEN SCANDAL IS BIG, NOT AS BIG AS THE RUSSIA, RUSSIA, RUSSIA HOAX, OR THE RIGGED 2020 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION”
  • Jun 3, 2025, 11:28 PM: “With the exception of the RIGGED PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OF 2020, THE AUTOPEN IS THE BIGGEST POLITICAL SCANDAL IN AMERICAN HISTORY!!!”
  • May 27, 2025, 3:02 PM: “Other than the Rigged Presidential Election of 2020, the Biggest Scandal in American History is the “AUTOPEN!””
  • May 17, 2025, 5:34 AM: “It is a major part of the real crime, THAT THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION OF 2020 WAS RIGGED AND STOLEN!”
  • May 5, 2025, 5:12 PM: “This is a Communist persecution by the Radical Left Democrats to cover up their Election crimes and misdeeds in 2020.”
  • Apr 14, 2025, 7:12 AM: “If the 2020 Presidential Election was not RIGGED, and it was, in so many ways, that horrible War would never have happened.”
  • Apr 13, 2025, 6:13 PM: “Ukraine, which I say is a War that would never have happened if the 2020 Election had not been RIGGED”

No sign of fraud: a statewide hand count, a county hand count and reviews led by his own party upheld the 2020 result, and his own vote rose by 11 million as turnout surged

The record

  • His figures for the two Democrats are right, and turnout explains the gap. Joe Biden got 81,283,501 votes in 2020 and Barack Obama 65,915,795 in 2012, the Federal Election Commission reports, but 29,344,221 more votes were cast in 2020: 158,429,631 against 129,085,410. His own vote grew too, by 11,239,147, from 62,984,828 in 2016 to 74,223,975 in 2020.
  • It wasn't a landslide for him: Biden won 51.31% of the national vote to his 46.85%, and the Electoral College 306 to 232.
  • His other point, that Biden beat Obama's share of the Black vote only in swing states, can't be checked against the official record: ballots don't record a voter's race.
  • Georgia counted its presidential ballots by hand, just over 5 million of them, from November 11 to 19, 2020. The audit "confirmed the original result of the election, namely that Joe Biden won the Presidential Contest in the State of Georgia," with a variation of 0.0099% in the margin.
  • Georgia's Secretary of State, Brad Raffensperger, said his office investigated 10,315 claims of dead voters casting ballots and found four were true, and found no ballot cast by an underage voter, Capitol Beat reported.
  • In Michigan's Antrim County, a full hand count found 9,759 votes for Trump and 5,959 for Biden, which the state said was "a net gain of 12 votes for Trump, largely mirroring the machine-tabulation results." The chair of the Michigan Senate's Oversight Committee, Ed McBroom, a Republican, wrote after its investigation that the state's results "were accurately represented by the certified and audited results."
  • Wisconsin's Legislative Audit Bureau, reviewing the election for the legislature, gave the state's election commission the names of four people "who may have voted twice by absentee ballot" in November 2020. That finding is real; even if all four did, it is far short of Biden's 20,682-vote margin there.
  • On voting machines, the federal cybersecurity agency and the state and local officials who run elections said in a joint statement on November 12, 2020: "There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised."
  • Since he returned to office, the Justice Department has sued Fulton County, Georgia, for its 2020 election records, and the FBI has seized the county's 2020 ballots in a court-authorized search. In May 2026 a federal judge refused to return them, but said the FBI's affidavit was "defective in some respects", including misleading statements about the county's final 2020 ballot count, CBS News reported. This site found no finding of fraud or charge from either so far.
  • Tina Peters, whom he says was jailed for exposing fraud in 2020, was convicted by a jury in 2024 of four felonies and three misdemeanors "for her role in breaching her own election equipment in 2021," when she was Mesa County's clerk, Colorado's Secretary of State says. Governor Jared Polis commuted her sentence on May 15, 2026.

Checked Monday, November 9, 2026. Sources: Federal Election Commission, Federal Elections 2020; Federal Election Commission, Federal Elections 2016; Federal Election Commission, Federal Elections 2012; Georgia's risk-limiting audit report, November 19, 2020; Capitol Beat; Michigan Department of State: Antrim County hand count; Michigan Senate Oversight Committee chair, June 23, 2021; Wisconsin Legislative Audit Bureau, Elections Administration, October 2021; Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency: joint statement, November 12, 2020; Justice Department: suits for voter records, including Fulton County's; CBS News; Colorado Secretary of State, May 15, 2026.

Mail-in voting, "the only Country in the World" #

Donald J. Trump's Truth Social post of August 18, 2025, saying he will lead a movement to get rid of mail-in ballots and voting machines, that the U.S. is the only country that uses mail-in voting, and that elections can never be honest with mail-in ballots.
Posted on Truth Social on Aug 18, 2025, 4:17 AM, Arizona time. See the post.

The claim: The United States is "the only Country in the World that uses Mail-In Voting. All others gave it up because of the MASSIVE VOTER FRAUD ENCOUNTERED." "ELECTIONS CAN NEVER BE HONEST WITH MAIL IN BALLOTS/VOTING." He would sign an executive order to bring "HONESTY to the 2026 Midterm Elections."

He made the same claim in 5 more posts
  • Sep 15, 2026, 6:27 AM: “our totally CORRUPT and out of control Mail-In voting “disaster,” which is a laughing stock all over the World, and where we are the only country that has to endure such a Nation Destroying SCAM.”
  • Dec 31, 2025, 10:27 AM: “their phony Mail In Ballot System that makes it impossible for a Republican to win an otherwise very winnable State!”
  • Dec 31, 2025, 7:20 AM: “their phony Mail In Ballot System that makes it impossible for a Republican to win an otherwise very winnable State!”
  • Sep 24, 2025, 1:16 PM: “California’s Fake Mail In Ballots came in at ridiculous numbers (It was RIGGED!)”
  • Aug 20, 2025, 8:47 PM: “STOP MAIL-IN VOTING, a total fraud that has no bounds.”

No sign of fraud: other countries vote by mail in large numbers, and about 30% of American ballots were cast by mail in 2024, the election he won

The record

  • Other countries do vote by mail. In Germany's 2025 federal election, 37.0% of voters voted by post, its Federal Returning Officer reports, down from 47.3% in 2021, during the pandemic. For Australia's 2025 federal election, its Electoral Commission sent out 2,561,475 postal vote packs, and 2,234,834 came back.
  • In the United States, voting by mail fell "to about 30% of total ballots cast in the 2024 election," the U.S. Election Assistance Commission reports. He won that election.
  • Utah's law says an election officer "shall administer an election primarily by mail." A 2025 Utah law keeps that rule, but from 2029 a voter will get a mail ballot only by asking for one.
  • He didn't sign an order ending mail ballots. The order he signed on March 31, 2026, on citizenship checks, told the Postal Service to write rules for ballot mail. A court blocked the rule, and on September 14, 2026 the Supreme Court refused to lift that block, saying the government "is unlikely to succeed on the merits."
  • His September 15 post says the Court blamed its ruling partly on there being no time left. That was one justice's reasoning: Brett Kavanaugh wrote that there is "at least a fair prospect" the rule is within the Postal Service's authority, but that officials "do not have sufficient time to reasonably implement the rule before the elections." The rule set requirements for ballot envelopes, including a barcode unique to each voter, to "better detect election fraud," as the dissent quotes it; the Court decided only whether it could take effect in 2026.

Checked Monday, November 9, 2026. Sources: Germany's Federal Returning Officer (Die Bundeswahlleiterin); Australian Electoral Commission, 2025 Federal Election Report; U.S. Election Assistance Commission; Federal Election Commission: official 2024 presidential results; Utah H.B. 300 (2025); The White House: Executive Order of March 31, 2026; Supreme Court: United States Postal Service v. California, September 14, 2026.