Mine Inspector
Here's what we think will happen: Brian Matlock. Votes come from the state's official results; the estimate is ours.
Our estimate: Brian Matlock, 97% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Brian Matlock | 1,157,533 | 52.4% | 52.1% | 97% |
 Walter "Les" Presmyk | 1,051,181 | 47.5% | 47.8% | 2% |
About 472,343 votes left. 1,384 of 1,762 precincts reporting.
| County | Votes | Counted | Matlock | Presmyk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa | 1,316,253 | 82% | 53.8% | 46.1% |
| Pima | 333,416 | 79% | 61.7% | 38.2% |
| Pinal | 144,477 | 95% | 45.4% | 54.5% |
| Yavapai | 115,747 | 90% | 35.2% | 64.8% |
| Mohave | 73,500 | 85% | 25.0% | 74.9% |
| Coconino | 49,568 | 86% | 66.9% | 33.0% |
| Cochise | 41,940 | 84% | 42.7% | 57.2% |
| Navajo | 36,966 | 86% | 47.2% | 52.6% |
| Yuma | 29,934 | 61% | 49.8% | 50.1% |
| Apache | 23,215 | 82% | 69.1% | 30.6% |
| Gila | 16,497 | 69% | 35.6% | 64.3% |
| Santa Cruz | 12,064 | 87% | 71.6% | 28.3% |
| Graham | 10,177 | 88% | 31.7% | 68.1% |
| La Paz | 5,189 | 88% | 31.1% | 68.7% |
| Greenlee | 2,032 | 78% | 40.9% | 59.1% |
How this estimate works
We take each county's votes so far and its estimated share counted, then ask how the remaining votes could change the order, running the count many times with different errors. In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 21 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink. The estimate expects part of that shift. This isn't a race call, and these chances are provisional. How the forecast works.