Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

82% counted

An estimate, from the county's progress in the governor's race. How Arizona's count runs.

Official county results. These are the contests in the county's results file, not an address-specific sample ballot. Eligibility varies by district and precinct.

Results file posted Nov 5, 8:21 AM. Source checked Nov 5, 5:30 PM.

Covered contests
270
Propositions with yes/no returns
64
Incorporated cities & towns
25

Observed returns, unofficial until certified. “Ahead” describes the current count; it is not a local race call. Candidate selections in multi-seat contests are not ballots. Precinct reporting does not establish how many ballots remain.

Reading the county count

The governor's race

1,368,707 valid candidate selections are reported for governor in this county observation. Katie Hobbs ahead by 215,442 votes (15.7 points).

This is a county portion of a statewide contest. A county lead is not a statewide election outcome.

Where the count is close

Phoenix ESD #1-GBM-4yr: 10 votes between the current last seat position and the next candidate.

The smallest verifiable seat-boundary gap among covered candidate contests with a known seat count. A gap is withheld if unassigned write-ins could change its ranking. District races show this county's portion.

Among the 64 covered propositions with yes/no choices, Yes is ahead in 52 and No in 12. Ties and unreported counts remain unresolved. These are observed leads, not declarations that a measure passed or failed.

Presidential voting history

Final county returns from 2000–2024. Different offices and electorates make this context for 2026, not a like-for-like estimate of the current election's final result.

YearDemocratic votesRepublican votesAll votesMargin
2000386,683479,967901,699R +10.3
2004504,849679,4551,192,751R +14.6
2008602,166746,4481,364,962R +10.6
2012602,288749,8851,376,558R +10.7
2016702,907747,3611,567,834R +2.8
20201,040,769995,6592,068,133D +2.2
2024980,1301,052,0362,055,576R +3.5

Margin is Democratic minus Republican share of all valid votes. Historical returns are final; current returns remain unofficial. MIT Election Data and Science Lab (CC0 (MEDSL)); Polling Forecast; original VEST (CC BY 4.0 (VEST / Polling Forecast)); Polling Forecast; original MEDSL (CC0 (MEDSL); CC BY 4.0 (Polling Forecast redistribution)).

Sources & scope

We do not infer local winners, certification, turnout, remaining ballots or citywide or districtwide results from precinct percentages, population, county totals or the number of seats. Your own ballot depends on your registered address.