Legislative District 9
Here's what we think will happen: Kiana Maria Sears, Lorena Austin and Jacob D. Martinez. Votes come from the state's official results; the estimate is ours.
State Senate
Our estimate: Kiana Maria Sears, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kiana Maria Sears | 30,826 | 60.3% | 59.8% | >99% |
 Bridget Fitzgibbons | 20,287 | 39.7% | 40.1% | <1% |
About 11,334 votes left. 40 of 40 precincts reporting.
Stats
| Since 2024 | D +17.2 |
|---|---|
| Since 2022 | D +15.7 |
| County | Votes | Counted | Sears | Fitzgibbons |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa | 51,158 | 82% | 60.3% | 39.7% |
State House
Our estimate: Lorena Austin, >99% chance of winning; Jacob D. Martinez, >99% chance of winning.
| Candidate | Votes | Share now | Projected | Chance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lorena Austin | 28,588 | 36.8% | 36.6% | >99% |
 Jacob D. Martinez | 28,512 | 36.7% | 36.5% | >99% |
 Bradley D. Bettencourt | 20,257 | 26.1% | 26.4% | <1% |
About 17,211 votes left. 40 of 40 precincts reporting. Voters choose 2, so totals count selections, not ballots.
| County | Votes | Counted | Austin | Martinez | Bettencourt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maricopa | 77,684 | 82% | 36.8% | 36.7% | 26.1% |
How this estimate works
We take each county's votes so far and its estimated share counted, then ask how the remaining votes could change the order, running the count many times with different errors. In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 21 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink. The estimate expects part of that shift. This isn't a race call, and these chances are provisional. How the forecast works.