Legislative District 7

Here's what we think will happen: Wendy Rogers, Walter "Walt" Blackman and David Cook Sr.. Votes come from the state's official results; the estimate is ours.

State Senate

Our estimate: Wendy Rogers, >99% chance of winning.

Candidate	Votes	Share now	Projected	Chance
Wendy Rogers	53,871	59.8%	60.5%	>99%
Michiel "Mike" Montiel	36,084	40.1%	39.4%	<1%

About 15,341 votes left. 43 of 97 precincts reporting.

85% counted

Stats

Since 2024	D +10.3
Since 2022	D +7.5

County	Votes	Counted	Rogers	Montiel
Pinal	34,680	95%	58.5%	41.4%
Navajo	21,841	86%	74.8%	25.1%
Coconino	17,933	86%	37.3%	62.6%
Gila	15,599	69%	67.6%	32.3%

State House

Our estimate: Walter "Walt" Blackman, >99% chance of winning; David Cook Sr., >99% chance of winning.

Candidate	Votes	Share now	Projected	Chance
Walter "Walt" Blackman	50,728	34.6%	34.9%	>99%
David Cook Sr.	48,664	33.2%	33.4%	>99%
Samuel "Sam" Martin	34,838	23.8%	23.2%	<1%
Richard Grayson	12,308	8.4%	8.3%	<1%

About 25,303 votes left. 43 of 97 precincts reporting. Voters choose 2, so totals count selections, not ballots.

85% counted

County	Votes	Counted	Blackman	Cook	Martin
Pinal	55,900	95%	33.2%	32.9%	25.2%
Navajo	37,440	86%	41.3%	39.4%	13.5%
Coconino	27,035	86%	24.3%	22.2%	40.4%
Gila	26,295	69%	38.6%	36.2%	18.2%

How this estimate works

We take each county's votes so far and its estimated share counted, then ask how the remaining votes could change the order, running the count many times with different errors. In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 21 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink. The estimate expects part of that shift. This isn't a race call, and these chances are provisional. How the forecast works.